{"kind":"daily-overview","version":1,"date":"2026-11-06","dateLong":"Friday, November 6, 2026","build":"20261106T225035Z","generatedAt":"2026-11-06T22:50:35+00:00","title":"TRAI Daily Overview — Friday, November 6, 2026","headline":"SPY +0.3% · Consumer Disc. -2.5% avg · VIX 25.6 (stress)","durationSec":108.41,"tts":"edge-tts (en-US-AndrewMultilingualNeural, rate +25%)","runId":"2026-11-06_postclose_2026-11-06T21-49-57-619Z","dataAsOf":{"latest":"2026-11-06","regime":"2026-11-06","scorecard":"2026-11-06","events":"2026-11-06","correlations":"2026-11-06","intraday":"2026-11-06","options":"2026-11-06","macro":"2026-11-06"},"warnings":[],"segments":[{"id":"intro","title":"Daily Overview","start":0,"end":12.825,"text":"TRAI daily overview for November 6. Screening and research, not investment advice. SPY rose 0.3%, QQQ 1.4% and the chip ETF SMH 3.6%.","concepts":[]},{"id":"regime","title":"Market regime","start":12.825,"end":40.514,"text":"The VIX, the market's 30-day implied volatility, fell 2.5 points to 25.6, a stress reading. SPY's realized volatility, how much it actually moved over 20 days, is only 20.2%; that 5.4-point gap is the volatility risk premium. The term structure, short-dated versus 3-month VIX, is in backwardation (stress: near-term fear > 3-month), a stress signal. TRAI's regime score is -55.0: risk-off and choppy.","concepts":["realized_implied_vol","vol_risk_premium","vix_term_structure"]},{"id":"movers","title":"What moved — and why","start":40.514,"end":46.87,"text":"DKNG fell 21.3% with no earnings in the data, so the cause is unknown here.","concepts":[]},{"id":"long","title":"Long momentum","start":46.87,"end":60.419,"text":"Long momentum means a market-beating rise on heavy volume, closing above VWAP, the day's volume-weighted average price. ABNB led with a residual z-score of 5.4, a market-adjusted move about 5 times its normal noise.","concepts":["vwap","residual_returns","z_scores"]},{"id":"short_mr","title":"Short momentum & mean reversion","start":60.419,"end":64.063,"text":"Short momentum had 1 names, led by TEAM.","concepts":["z_scores","mean_reversion"]},{"id":"scorecard","title":"Scorecard — has it worked?","start":64.063,"end":82.327,"text":"Over 126 replayed sessions, short momentum's expectancy, the average net profit per trade, is -0.23%, with a t-stat of -1.9: inside ±2, so it could be luck. Mean reversion — fade-short leg (after big up day) and Mean reversion (fade, both sides) clear that bar.","concepts":["expectancy_tstat"]},{"id":"correlations","title":"Correlation clusters","start":82.327,"end":92.36,"text":"Correlation clusters are stocks that move together: the largest, 26 names led by semis, has an average correlation of 0.64, so today's 1 shorts are about 1 independent bets.","concepts":["correlation_clusters"]},{"id":"earnings","title":"Earnings & gap risk","start":92.36,"end":100.932,"text":"Gap risk is a jump past your stop overnight, often on earnings. 11 names report within 5 sessions, including picks VST on November 6.","concepts":["gap_risk"]},{"id":"sectors","title":"Sector rotation","start":100.932,"end":108.812,"text":"Over 20 days, health care, staples and real estate lead SPY by 11 to 14 points; semis and tech trail by 18 and 12.","concepts":["sector_rotation"]}],"concepts":["realized_implied_vol","vol_risk_premium","vix_term_structure","vwap","residual_returns","z_scores","mean_reversion","expectancy_tstat","correlation_clusters","gap_risk","sector_rotation"],"keyStats":{"spyPct":0.0031,"qqqPct":0.014,"smhPct":0.0362,"vix":25.64,"vixChg":-2.54,"vixLabel":"stress","termStructure":"backwardation (stress: near-term fear > 3-month)","spyRv20":20.22,"vrp":5.42,"regimeScore":-55,"regimeLabel":"risk-off","trendState":"choppy","advancers":70,"decliners":86,"universe":156},"buckets":[{"key":"long_momentum","title":"Long momentum","n":3,"nEff":2.93,"top":["ABNB","VST","APP"]},{"key":"short_momentum","title":"Short momentum","n":1,"nEff":1,"top":["TEAM"]},{"key":"mean_reversion","title":"Mean reversion","n":0,"nEff":null,"top":[]}],"scorecard":[{"key":"mean_reversion_short","title":"Mean reversion — fade-short leg (after big up day)","n":358,"expectancyNet":0.00312,"tStat":2.47,"hitRate":0.5531},{"key":"mean_reversion","title":"Mean reversion (fade, both sides)","n":596,"expectancyNet":0.00213,"tStat":2.29,"hitRate":0.5403},{"key":"long_momentum","title":"Long momentum","n":393,"expectancyNet":0.00106,"tStat":0.68,"hitRate":0.5064},{"key":"mean_reversion_long","title":"Mean reversion — fade-long leg (after big down day)","n":238,"expectancyNet":0.00065,"tStat":0.48,"hitRate":0.521},{"key":"short_momentum","title":"Short momentum","n":457,"expectancyNet":-0.00231,"tStat":-1.88,"hitRate":0.442}],"earningsReactions":[],"upcomingPicksEarnings":[{"symbol":"VST","date":"2026-11-06","timing":"BMO","gapRisk":"imminent","avgAbsGap":0.0149}],"sectors20d":[{"symbol":"XLV","name":"Health Care","rel20d":0.1375,"ret1d":-0.0006,"quadrant":"leading"},{"symbol":"XLP","name":"Consumer Staples","rel20d":0.1353,"ret1d":-0.0128,"quadrant":"leading"},{"symbol":"XLRE","name":"Real Estate","rel20d":0.113,"ret1d":-0.0068,"quadrant":"leading"},{"symbol":"XLB","name":"Materials","rel20d":0.1066,"ret1d":-0.0073,"quadrant":"leading"},{"symbol":"XLF","name":"Financials","rel20d":0.1,"ret1d":-0.0059,"quadrant":"leading"},{"symbol":"XLY","name":"Consumer Discretionary","rel20d":0.0975,"ret1d":-0.0005,"quadrant":"leading"},{"symbol":"XLU","name":"Utilities","rel20d":0.0971,"ret1d":-0.0039,"quadrant":"leading"},{"symbol":"XLI","name":"Industrials","rel20d":0.0167,"ret1d":0.0012,"quadrant":"improving"},{"symbol":"XLC","name":"Communication Services","rel20d":0.005,"ret1d":0.0043,"quadrant":"improving"},{"symbol":"XLE","name":"Energy","rel20d":0.0024,"ret1d":-0.0002,"quadrant":"lagging"},{"symbol":"XLK","name":"Technology","rel20d":-0.1156,"ret1d":0.0145,"quadrant":"lagging"},{"symbol":"SMH","name":"Semiconductors","rel20d":-0.1754,"ret1d":0.0362,"quadrant":"lagging"}],"learnMore":[{"title":"VIX Index — methodology & FAQ","source":"Cboe","url":"https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/","concepts":["realized_implied_vol","vix_term_structure"]},{"title":"VIX term structure (live)","source":"Cboe","url":"https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/term_structure/","concepts":["vix_term_structure"]},{"title":"Volatility (glossary)","source":"SEC Investor.gov","url":"https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/investing-basics/glossary/volatility","concepts":["realized_implied_vol"]},{"title":"Day trading (glossary)","source":"SEC Investor.gov","url":"https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/investing-basics/glossary/day-trading","concepts":[]},{"title":"Diversify your investments","source":"SEC Investor.gov","url":"https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/investing-basics/save-and-invest/diversify-your-investments","concepts":["correlation_clusters"]},{"title":"Volume-weighted average price (VWAP)","source":"Investopedia","url":"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vwap.asp","concepts":["vwap"]},{"title":"Historical (realized) volatility","source":"Investopedia","url":"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/historicalvolatility.asp","concepts":["realized_implied_vol"]},{"title":"Z-score","source":"Investopedia","url":"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/z/zscore.asp","concepts":["z_scores"]},{"title":"T-test (what a t-statistic measures)","source":"Investopedia","url":"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/t-test.asp","concepts":["expectancy_tstat"]}],"files":{"video":"video.mp4","poster":"poster.png","captions":"captions.vtt","script":"script.md"},"urls":{"video":"https://puuog7v4yk85akmd.public.blob.vercel-storage.com/daily/2026-11-06/20261106T225035Z/video.mp4","poster":"https://puuog7v4yk85akmd.public.blob.vercel-storage.com/daily/2026-11-06/20261106T225035Z/poster.png","captions":"https://puuog7v4yk85akmd.public.blob.vercel-storage.com/daily/2026-11-06/20261106T225035Z/captions.vtt","script":"https://puuog7v4yk85akmd.public.blob.vercel-storage.com/daily/2026-11-06/20261106T225035Z/script.md"},"sources":{"latest":"Yahoo Finance public chart API (https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/) — daily (6mo) and 5-minute (5d, incl. pre/post) bars. Unofficial, may be delayed.","regime":"Yahoo Finance public chart API, daily bars (2y): SPY, ^VIX, ^VIX9D, ^VIX3M and the full TRAI universe for breadth.","scorecard":"Yahoo Finance public chart API (daily, 2y; 5-minute 60d for the live-rule column) + TRAI stored runs in Vercel Blob.","events":"Yahoo Finance quoteSummary (calendarEvents, earnings: last 4 reported quarters with report timestamps) via anonymous cookie+crumb session; Yahoo chart API daily bars (2y) for price reactions.","correlations":"Yahoo Finance public chart API, daily bars (1y).","intraday":"Yahoo Finance public chart API, 5-minute regular-session bars (60-day maximum lookback Yahoo serves for 5m).","options":"Yahoo Finance public options endpoint (v7/finance/options) via anonymous cookie+crumb session; Yahoo chart API for realized vol and ^IRX.","macro":"FRED was unreachable from the server, so rates come from US Treasury daily yield-curve CSVs (home.treasury.gov) and dollar/credit use Yahoo Finance proxies (DXY, HYG/IEF, LQD/IEF); Yahoo Finance for sector ETFs and SPY."},"disclaimer":"Screening/research, not investment advice.","publishedAt":"2026-11-06T22:50:43.590Z"}