{"kind":"daily-overview","version":1,"date":"2026-10-22","dateLong":"Thursday, October 22, 2026","build":"20261023T052440Z","generatedAt":"2026-10-23T05:24:40+00:00","title":"TRAI Daily Overview — Thursday, October 22, 2026","headline":"SPY -1.2% · Semis -6.2% avg · VIX 19.0 (transitional) · short momentum still negative-expectancy","durationSec":126.36,"tts":"edge-tts (en-US-AndrewMultilingualNeural, rate +25%)","runId":"2026-10-22_postclose_2026-10-23T00-37-11-870Z","dataAsOf":{"latest":"2026-10-22","regime":"2026-10-22","scorecard":"2026-10-22","events":"2026-10-22","correlations":"2026-10-22","intraday":"2026-10-22","options":"2026-10-22","macro":"2026-10-22"},"warnings":[],"segments":[{"id":"intro","title":"Daily Overview","start":0,"end":12.832,"text":"TRAI daily overview for October 22. Screening and research, not investment advice. SPY fell 1.2%, QQQ 2.9% and the chip ETF SMH 6.0%.","concepts":[]},{"id":"regime","title":"Market regime","start":12.832,"end":38.292,"text":"The VIX, the market's 30-day implied volatility, rose 2.4 points to 19.0, a transitional reading. SPY's realized volatility, how much it actually moved over 20 days, is only 9.8%; that 9.2-point gap is the volatility risk premium. The term structure, short-dated versus 3-month VIX, is in mild contango, which is normal. TRAI's regime score is +17.5: neutral and choppy.","concepts":["realized_implied_vol","vol_risk_premium","vix_term_structure"]},{"id":"movers","title":"What moved — and why","start":38.292,"end":57.478,"text":"Earnings drove big moves: LRCX fell 11.8%, SPOT rose 11.1% and META fell 7.0% after missing EPS estimates by 30%. MRNA fell 17.6% with no earnings in the data, so the cause is unknown here.","concepts":[]},{"id":"long","title":"Long momentum","start":57.478,"end":70.739,"text":"Long momentum means a market-beating rise on heavy volume, closing above VWAP, the day's volume-weighted average price. BX led with a residual z-score of 6.2, a market-adjusted move about 6 times its normal noise.","concepts":["vwap","residual_returns","z_scores"]},{"id":"short_mr","title":"Short momentum & mean reversion","start":70.739,"end":80.998,"text":"Short momentum had 12 names, half of them chips, led by GEV. Mean reversion, big moves on ordinary volume that may fade, flagged 17, led by FCX.","concepts":["z_scores","mean_reversion"]},{"id":"scorecard","title":"Scorecard — has it worked?","start":80.998,"end":96.285,"text":"Over 126 replayed sessions, short momentum's expectancy, the average net profit per trade, is -0.46%, with a t-stat of -3.7: beyond ±2, so likely not luck. No bucket has a significant positive edge.","concepts":["expectancy_tstat"]},{"id":"correlations","title":"Correlation clusters","start":96.285,"end":106.668,"text":"Correlation clusters are stocks that move together: the largest, 24 names led by semis, has an average correlation of 0.59, so today's 12 shorts are about 3 independent bets.","concepts":["correlation_clusters"]},{"id":"earnings","title":"Earnings & gap risk","start":106.668,"end":118.887,"text":"Gap risk is a jump past your stop overnight, often on earnings. 42 names report within 5 sessions, including picks KLAC, NOW and GOOGL on October 28.","concepts":["gap_risk"]},{"id":"sectors","title":"Sector rotation","start":118.887,"end":126.761,"text":"Over 20 days, staples, utilities and energy lead SPY by 8 to 11 points; semis and tech trail by 12 and 6.","concepts":["sector_rotation"]}],"concepts":["realized_implied_vol","vol_risk_premium","vix_term_structure","vwap","residual_returns","z_scores","mean_reversion","expectancy_tstat","correlation_clusters","gap_risk","sector_rotation"],"keyStats":{"spyPct":-0.0118,"qqqPct":-0.0286,"smhPct":-0.0599,"vix":19.03,"vixChg":2.35,"vixLabel":"transitional","termStructure":"mild contango (normal)","spyRv20":9.85,"vrp":9.18,"regimeScore":17.5,"regimeLabel":"neutral","trendState":"choppy","advancers":80,"decliners":75,"universe":156},"buckets":[{"key":"long_momentum","title":"Long momentum","n":6,"nEff":3.39,"top":["BX","SPOT","ADBE","HON","NOW"]},{"key":"short_momentum","title":"Short momentum","n":12,"nEff":3.04,"top":["GEV","VST","KLAC","LRCX","META"]},{"key":"mean_reversion","title":"Mean reversion","n":17,"nEff":5.3,"top":["FCX","ASML","TGT","AMD","NVDA"]}],"scorecard":[{"key":"mean_reversion_long","title":"Mean reversion — fade-long leg (after big down 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momentum","n":412,"expectancyNet":-0.00463,"tStat":-3.72,"hitRate":0.4345}],"earningsReactions":[{"symbol":"LRCX","sector":"Semis","reportDate":"2026-10-21","timing":"AMC","gap":-0.1009,"reactionCC":-0.1176,"relVol":2.63,"surprisePct":0.94,"epsActual":2.2,"epsEstimate":2.17953,"quarter":"3Q2026","filled":false},{"symbol":"SPOT","sector":"Internet/Media","reportDate":"2026-10-22","timing":"BMO","gap":0.0684,"reactionCC":0.111,"relVol":3.23,"surprisePct":-12.7,"epsActual":2.48,"epsEstimate":2.84094,"quarter":"3Q2026","filled":false},{"symbol":"META","sector":"Internet/Media","reportDate":"2026-10-21","timing":"AMC","gap":-0.0304,"reactionCC":-0.0698,"relVol":2.07,"surprisePct":-29.91,"epsActual":3.83,"epsEstimate":5.46478,"quarter":"3Q2026","filled":false},{"symbol":"LMT","sector":"Industrials","reportDate":"2026-10-22","timing":"BMO","gap":0.0508,"reactionCC":0.0696,"relVol":2.57,"surprisePct":6.02,"epsActual":7.97,"epsEstimate":7.51773,"quarter":"3Q2026","filled":false},{"symbol":"PG","sector":"Consumer Staples","reportDate":"2026-10-22","timing":"BMO","gap":0.0338,"reactionCC":0.0558,"relVol":2.42,"surprisePct":5.66,"epsActual":2,"epsEstimate":1.89279,"quarter":"3Q2026","filled":false},{"symbol":"UNP","sector":"Industrials","reportDate":"2026-10-22","timing":"BMO","gap":-0.027,"reactionCC":0.0355,"relVol":2.23,"surprisePct":1.56,"epsActual":3.53,"epsEstimate":3.47563,"quarter":"3Q2026","filled":true},{"symbol":"CMCSA","sector":"Internet/Media","reportDate":"2026-10-22","timing":"BMO","gap":0.0163,"reactionCC":0.0344,"relVol":1.78,"surprisePct":8.47,"epsActual":1.07,"epsEstimate":0.98641,"quarter":"3Q2026","filled":true},{"symbol":"TSLA","sector":"Consumer Disc.","reportDate":"2026-10-21","timing":"AMC","gap":-0.0315,"reactionCC":-0.0308,"relVol":1.45,"surprisePct":6.4,"epsActual":0.48,"epsEstimate":0.45114,"quarter":"3Q2026","filled":true}],"upcomingPicksEarnings":[{"symbol":"FCX","date":"2026-10-27","timing":"BMO","gapRisk":"elevated","avgAbsGap":0.0428},{"symbol":"KLAC","date":"2026-10-28","timing":"AMC","gapRisk":"elevated","avgAbsGap":0.0566},{"symbol":"NOW","date":"2026-10-28","timing":"AMC","gapRisk":"elevated","avgAbsGap":0.0758},{"symbol":"GOOGL","date":"2026-10-28","timing":"AMC","gapRisk":"elevated","avgAbsGap":0.0637},{"symbol":"VRT","date":"2026-10-28","timing":"BMO","gapRisk":"elevated","avgAbsGap":0.0808},{"symbol":"GEV","date":"2026-10-28","timing":"BMO","gapRisk":"elevated","avgAbsGap":0.0445},{"symbol":"INTC","date":"2026-10-29","timing":"AMC","gapRisk":null,"avgAbsGap":0.1046},{"symbol":"AMZN","date":"2026-10-29","timing":"AMC","gapRisk":null,"avgAbsGap":0.094},{"symbol":"MO","date":"2026-10-29","timing":"BMO","gapRisk":"elevated","avgAbsGap":0.0542},{"symbol":"CAT","date":"2026-10-29","timing":"BMO","gapRisk":"elevated","avgAbsGap":0.0628}],"sectors20d":[{"symbol":"XLP","name":"Consumer Staples","rel20d":0.1057,"ret1d":0.0331,"quadrant":"leading"},{"symbol":"XLU","name":"Utilities","rel20d":0.0934,"ret1d":0.0207,"quadrant":"leading"},{"symbol":"XLE","name":"Energy","rel20d":0.0836,"ret1d":-0.0087,"quadrant":"leading"},{"symbol":"XLV","name":"Health Care","rel20d":0.0715,"ret1d":0.0132,"quadrant":"leading"},{"symbol":"XLY","name":"Consumer Discretionary","rel20d":0.0467,"ret1d":-0.0045,"quadrant":"leading"},{"symbol":"XLB","name":"Materials","rel20d":0.0447,"ret1d":0.0072,"quadrant":"leading"},{"symbol":"XLF","name":"Financials","rel20d":0.0431,"ret1d":0.0109,"quadrant":"leading"},{"symbol":"XLRE","name":"Real Estate","rel20d":0.0251,"ret1d":0.0109,"quadrant":"improving"},{"symbol":"XLI","name":"Industrials","rel20d":-0.0082,"ret1d":-0.0094,"quadrant":"improving"},{"symbol":"XLC","name":"Communication Services","rel20d":-0.0534,"ret1d":-0.0142,"quadrant":"lagging"},{"symbol":"XLK","name":"Technology","rel20d":-0.0593,"ret1d":-0.0329,"quadrant":"lagging"},{"symbol":"SMH","name":"Semiconductors","rel20d":-0.1243,"ret1d":-0.0599,"quadrant":"lagging"}],"learnMore":[{"title":"VIX Index — methodology & FAQ","source":"Cboe","url":"https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/","concepts":["realized_implied_vol","vix_term_structure"]},{"title":"VIX term structure (live)","source":"Cboe","url":"https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/term_structure/","concepts":["vix_term_structure"]},{"title":"Volatility (glossary)","source":"SEC Investor.gov","url":"https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/investing-basics/glossary/volatility","concepts":["realized_implied_vol"]},{"title":"Day trading (glossary)","source":"SEC Investor.gov","url":"https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/investing-basics/glossary/day-trading","concepts":[]},{"title":"Diversify your investments","source":"SEC Investor.gov","url":"https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/investing-basics/save-and-invest/diversify-your-investments","concepts":["correlation_clusters"]},{"title":"Volume-weighted average price (VWAP)","source":"Investopedia","url":"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vwap.asp","concepts":["vwap"]},{"title":"Historical (realized) volatility","source":"Investopedia","url":"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/historicalvolatility.asp","concepts":["realized_implied_vol"]},{"title":"Z-score","source":"Investopedia","url":"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/z/zscore.asp","concepts":["z_scores"]},{"title":"T-test (what a t-statistic measures)","source":"Investopedia","url":"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/t-test.asp","concepts":["expectancy_tstat"]}],"files":{"video":"video.mp4","poster":"poster.png","captions":"captions.vtt","script":"script.md"},"urls":{"video":"https://puuog7v4yk85akmd.public.blob.vercel-storage.com/daily/2026-10-22/20261023T052440Z/video.mp4","poster":"https://puuog7v4yk85akmd.public.blob.vercel-storage.com/daily/2026-10-22/20261023T052440Z/poster.png","captions":"https://puuog7v4yk85akmd.public.blob.vercel-storage.com/daily/2026-10-22/20261023T052440Z/captions.vtt","script":"https://puuog7v4yk85akmd.public.blob.vercel-storage.com/daily/2026-10-22/20261023T052440Z/script.md"},"sources":{"latest":"Yahoo Finance public chart API (https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/) — daily (6mo) and 5-minute (5d, incl. pre/post) bars. Unofficial, may be delayed.","regime":"Yahoo Finance public chart API, daily bars (2y): SPY, ^VIX, ^VIX9D, ^VIX3M and the full TRAI universe for breadth.","scorecard":"Yahoo Finance public chart API (daily, 2y) + TRAI stored runs in Vercel Blob.","events":"Yahoo Finance quoteSummary (calendarEvents, earnings: last 4 reported quarters with report timestamps) via anonymous cookie+crumb session; Yahoo chart API daily bars (2y) for price reactions.","correlations":"Yahoo Finance public chart API, daily bars (1y).","intraday":"Yahoo Finance public chart API, 5-minute regular-session bars (60-day maximum lookback Yahoo serves for 5m).","options":"Yahoo Finance public options endpoint (v7/finance/options) via anonymous cookie+crumb session; Yahoo chart API for realized vol and ^IRX.","macro":"FRED was unreachable from the server, so rates come from US Treasury daily yield-curve CSVs (home.treasury.gov) and dollar/credit use Yahoo Finance proxies (DXY, HYG/IEF, LQD/IEF); Yahoo Finance for sector ETFs and SPY."},"disclaimer":"Screening/research, not investment advice.","publishedAt":"2026-10-23T05:29:53.360Z"}