{"kind":"daily-overview","version":1,"date":"2026-10-23","dateLong":"Friday, October 23, 2026","build":"20261023T215539Z","generatedAt":"2026-10-23T21:55:39+00:00","title":"TRAI Daily Overview — Friday, October 23, 2026","headline":"SPY -0.5% · Telecom -5.6% avg · VIX 19.4 (transitional) · short momentum still negative-expectancy","durationSec":108.85,"tts":"edge-tts (en-US-AndrewMultilingualNeural, rate +25%)","runId":"2026-10-23_postclose_2026-10-23T20-34-13-980Z","dataAsOf":{"latest":"2026-10-23","regime":"2026-10-22","scorecard":"2026-10-22","events":"2026-10-23","correlations":"2026-10-22","intraday":"2026-10-23","options":"2026-10-23","macro":"2026-10-22"},"warnings":["/regime is as of 2026-10-22, not 2026-10-23","/scorecard is as of 2026-10-22, not 2026-10-23","/correlations is as of 2026-10-22, not 2026-10-23","/macro is as of 2026-10-22, not 2026-10-23"],"segments":[{"id":"intro","title":"Daily Overview","start":0,"end":13.713,"text":"TRAI daily overview for October 23. Screening and research, not investment advice. SPY fell 0.5%, QQQ 0.0% and the chip ETF SMH rose 0.7%.","concepts":[]},{"id":"regime","title":"Market regime","start":13.713,"end":38.898,"text":"The VIX, the market's 30-day implied volatility, rose 0.4 points to 19.4, a transitional reading. SPY's realized volatility, how much it actually moved over 20 days, is only 9.8%; that 9.7-point gap is the volatility risk premium. The term structure, short-dated versus 3-month VIX, is in mild contango, which is normal. TRAI's regime score is +17.5: neutral and choppy.","concepts":["realized_implied_vol","vol_risk_premium","vix_term_structure"]},{"id":"movers","title":"What moved — and why","start":38.898,"end":44.59,"text":"CRWD rose 8.2% with no earnings in the data, so the cause is unknown here.","concepts":[]},{"id":"long","title":"Long momentum","start":44.59,"end":57.961,"text":"Long momentum means a market-beating rise on heavy volume, closing above VWAP, the day's volume-weighted average price. SLB led with a residual z-score of 3.5, a market-adjusted move about 4 times its normal noise.","concepts":["vwap","residual_returns","z_scores"]},{"id":"short_mr","title":"Short momentum & mean reversion","start":57.961,"end":66.052,"text":"Short momentum had 1 names, led by T. Mean reversion, big moves on ordinary volume that may fade, flagged 10, led by AXP.","concepts":["z_scores","mean_reversion"]},{"id":"scorecard","title":"Scorecard — has it worked?","start":66.052,"end":81.339,"text":"Over 126 replayed sessions, short momentum's expectancy, the average net profit per trade, is -0.46%, with a t-stat of -3.7: beyond ±2, so likely not luck. No bucket has a significant positive edge.","concepts":["expectancy_tstat"]},{"id":"correlations","title":"Correlation clusters","start":81.339,"end":91.535,"text":"Correlation clusters are stocks that move together: the largest, 24 names led by semis, has an average correlation of 0.59, so today's 1 shorts are about 3 independent bets.","concepts":["correlation_clusters"]},{"id":"earnings","title":"Earnings & gap risk","start":91.535,"end":101.375,"text":"Gap risk is a jump past your stop overnight, often on earnings. 44 names report within 5 sessions, including picks AXP and SLB on October 23.","concepts":["gap_risk"]},{"id":"sectors","title":"Sector rotation","start":101.375,"end":109.248,"text":"Over 20 days, staples, utilities and energy lead SPY by 8 to 11 points; semis and tech trail by 12 and 6.","concepts":["sector_rotation"]}],"concepts":["realized_implied_vol","vol_risk_premium","vix_term_structure","vwap","residual_returns","z_scores","mean_reversion","expectancy_tstat","correlation_clusters","gap_risk","sector_rotation"],"keyStats":{"spyPct":-0.0052,"qqqPct":-0.0001,"smhPct":0.0074,"vix":19.45,"vixChg":0.42,"vixLabel":"transitional","termStructure":"mild contango (normal)","spyRv20":9.77,"vrp":9.68,"regimeScore":17.5,"regimeLabel":"neutral","trendState":"choppy","advancers":45,"decliners":110,"universe":156},"buckets":[{"key":"long_momentum","title":"Long momentum","n":2,"nEff":3.39,"top":["SLB","CRWD"]},{"key":"short_momentum","title":"Short momentum","n":1,"nEff":3.04,"top":["T"]},{"key":"mean_reversion","title":"Mean reversion","n":10,"nEff":5.3,"top":["AXP","XOM","COP","CVX","NET"]}],"scorecard":[{"key":"mean_reversion_long","title":"Mean reversion — fade-long leg (after big down day)","n":212,"expectancyNet":0.00165,"tStat":1.19,"hitRate":0.5425},{"key":"long_momentum","title":"Long momentum","n":385,"expectancyNet":0.00133,"tStat":0.82,"hitRate":0.4961},{"key":"mean_reversion","title":"Mean reversion (fade, both sides)","n":534,"expectancyNet":0.00124,"tStat":1.33,"hitRate":0.5356},{"key":"mean_reversion_short","title":"Mean reversion — fade-short leg (after big up day)","n":322,"expectancyNet":0.00097,"tStat":0.77,"hitRate":0.5311},{"key":"short_momentum","title":"Short momentum","n":412,"expectancyNet":-0.00463,"tStat":-3.72,"hitRate":0.4345}],"earningsReactions":[],"upcomingPicksEarnings":[{"symbol":"AXP","date":"2026-10-23","timing":"BMO","gapRisk":"imminent","avgAbsGap":0.021},{"symbol":"SLB","date":"2026-10-23","timing":"BMO","gapRisk":"imminent","avgAbsGap":0.0221},{"symbol":"TMUS","date":"2026-10-28","timing":"AMC","gapRisk":"elevated","avgAbsGap":0.0413},{"symbol":"XOM","date":"2026-10-30","timing":"BMO","gapRisk":"elevated","avgAbsGap":0.0126},{"symbol":"CVX","date":"2026-10-30","timing":"BMO","gapRisk":"elevated","avgAbsGap":0.012}],"sectors20d":[{"symbol":"XLP","name":"Consumer Staples","rel20d":0.1057,"ret1d":0.0331,"quadrant":"leading"},{"symbol":"XLU","name":"Utilities","rel20d":0.0934,"ret1d":0.0207,"quadrant":"leading"},{"symbol":"XLE","name":"Energy","rel20d":0.0836,"ret1d":-0.0087,"quadrant":"leading"},{"symbol":"XLV","name":"Health Care","rel20d":0.0715,"ret1d":0.0132,"quadrant":"leading"},{"symbol":"XLY","name":"Consumer Discretionary","rel20d":0.0467,"ret1d":-0.0045,"quadrant":"leading"},{"symbol":"XLB","name":"Materials","rel20d":0.0447,"ret1d":0.0072,"quadrant":"leading"},{"symbol":"XLF","name":"Financials","rel20d":0.0431,"ret1d":0.0109,"quadrant":"leading"},{"symbol":"XLRE","name":"Real Estate","rel20d":0.0251,"ret1d":0.0109,"quadrant":"improving"},{"symbol":"XLI","name":"Industrials","rel20d":-0.0082,"ret1d":-0.0094,"quadrant":"improving"},{"symbol":"XLC","name":"Communication Services","rel20d":-0.0534,"ret1d":-0.0142,"quadrant":"lagging"},{"symbol":"XLK","name":"Technology","rel20d":-0.0593,"ret1d":-0.0329,"quadrant":"lagging"},{"symbol":"SMH","name":"Semiconductors","rel20d":-0.1243,"ret1d":-0.0599,"quadrant":"lagging"}],"learnMore":[{"title":"VIX Index — methodology & FAQ","source":"Cboe","url":"https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/","concepts":["realized_implied_vol","vix_term_structure"]},{"title":"VIX term structure (live)","source":"Cboe","url":"https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/term_structure/","concepts":["vix_term_structure"]},{"title":"Volatility (glossary)","source":"SEC Investor.gov","url":"https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/investing-basics/glossary/volatility","concepts":["realized_implied_vol"]},{"title":"Day trading (glossary)","source":"SEC Investor.gov","url":"https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/investing-basics/glossary/day-trading","concepts":[]},{"title":"Diversify your investments","source":"SEC Investor.gov","url":"https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/investing-basics/save-and-invest/diversify-your-investments","concepts":["correlation_clusters"]},{"title":"Volume-weighted average price (VWAP)","source":"Investopedia","url":"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vwap.asp","concepts":["vwap"]},{"title":"Historical (realized) volatility","source":"Investopedia","url":"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/historicalvolatility.asp","concepts":["realized_implied_vol"]},{"title":"Z-score","source":"Investopedia","url":"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/z/zscore.asp","concepts":["z_scores"]},{"title":"T-test (what a t-statistic measures)","source":"Investopedia","url":"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/t-test.asp","concepts":["expectancy_tstat"]}],"files":{"video":"video.mp4","poster":"poster.png","captions":"captions.vtt","script":"script.md"},"urls":{"video":"https://puuog7v4yk85akmd.public.blob.vercel-storage.com/daily/2026-10-23/20261023T215539Z/video.mp4","poster":"https://puuog7v4yk85akmd.public.blob.vercel-storage.com/daily/2026-10-23/20261023T215539Z/poster.png","captions":"https://puuog7v4yk85akmd.public.blob.vercel-storage.com/daily/2026-10-23/20261023T215539Z/captions.vtt","script":"https://puuog7v4yk85akmd.public.blob.vercel-storage.com/daily/2026-10-23/20261023T215539Z/script.md"},"sources":{"latest":"Yahoo Finance public chart API (https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/) — daily (6mo) and 5-minute (5d, incl. pre/post) bars. Unofficial, may be delayed.","regime":"Yahoo Finance public chart API, daily bars (2y): SPY, ^VIX, ^VIX9D, ^VIX3M and the full TRAI universe for breadth.","scorecard":"Yahoo Finance public chart API (daily, 2y) + TRAI stored runs in Vercel Blob.","events":"Yahoo Finance quoteSummary (calendarEvents, earnings: last 4 reported quarters with report timestamps) via anonymous cookie+crumb session; Yahoo chart API daily bars (2y) for price reactions.","correlations":"Yahoo Finance public chart API, daily bars (1y).","intraday":"Yahoo Finance public chart API, 5-minute regular-session bars (60-day maximum lookback Yahoo serves for 5m).","options":"Yahoo Finance public options endpoint (v7/finance/options) via anonymous cookie+crumb session; Yahoo chart API for realized vol and ^IRX.","macro":"FRED was unreachable from the server, so rates come from US Treasury daily yield-curve CSVs (home.treasury.gov) and dollar/credit use Yahoo Finance proxies (DXY, HYG/IEF, LQD/IEF); Yahoo Finance for sector ETFs and SPY."},"disclaimer":"Screening/research, not investment advice.","publishedAt":"2026-10-23T21:55:42.603Z"}