{"kind":"daily-overview","version":1,"date":"2026-10-30","dateLong":"Friday, October 30, 2026","build":"20261030T230854Z","generatedAt":"2026-10-30T23:08:54+00:00","title":"TRAI Daily Overview — Friday, October 30, 2026","headline":"SPY -2.3% · Semis -8.0% avg · VIX 20.7 (stress) · short momentum still negative-expectancy","durationSec":111.94,"tts":"edge-tts (en-US-AndrewMultilingualNeural, rate +25%)","runId":"2026-10-30_postclose_2026-10-30T20-21-55-558Z","dataAsOf":{"latest":"2026-10-30","regime":"2026-10-30","scorecard":"2026-10-30","events":"2026-10-30","correlations":"2026-10-30","intraday":"2026-10-30","options":"2026-10-30","macro":"2026-10-30"},"warnings":[],"segments":[{"id":"intro","title":"Daily Overview","start":0,"end":13.099,"text":"TRAI daily overview for October 30. Screening and research, not investment advice. SPY fell 2.3%, QQQ 3.5% and the chip ETF SMH 8.3%.","concepts":[]},{"id":"regime","title":"Market regime","start":13.099,"end":37.812,"text":"The VIX, the market's 30-day implied volatility, rose 3.5 points to 20.7, a stress reading. SPY's realized volatility, how much it actually moved over 20 days, is only 12.8%; that 7.9-point gap is the volatility risk premium. The term structure, short-dated versus 3-month VIX, is in mild contango, which is normal. TRAI's regime score is +4.5: neutral and choppy.","concepts":["realized_implied_vol","vol_risk_premium","vix_term_structure"]},{"id":"movers","title":"What moved — and why","start":37.812,"end":43.74,"text":"INTC fell 28.6% with no earnings in the data, so the cause is unknown here.","concepts":[]},{"id":"long","title":"Long momentum","start":43.74,"end":57.405,"text":"Long momentum means a market-beating rise on heavy volume, closing above VWAP, the day's volume-weighted average price. REGN led with a residual z-score of 8.5, a market-adjusted move about 9 times its normal noise.","concepts":["vwap","residual_returns","z_scores"]},{"id":"short_mr","title":"Short momentum & mean reversion","start":57.405,"end":67.383,"text":"Short momentum had 6 names, led by RBLX. Mean reversion, big moves on ordinary volume that may fade, flagged 17, led by SNOW.","concepts":["z_scores","mean_reversion"]},{"id":"scorecard","title":"Scorecard — has it worked?","start":67.383,"end":82.701,"text":"Over 126 replayed sessions, short momentum's expectancy, the average net profit per trade, is -0.45%, with a t-stat of -3.6: beyond ±2, so likely not luck. No bucket has a significant positive edge.","concepts":["expectancy_tstat"]},{"id":"correlations","title":"Correlation clusters","start":82.701,"end":92.506,"text":"Correlation clusters are stocks that move together: the largest, 24 names led by semis, has an average correlation of 0.58, so today's 6 shorts are about 4 independent bets.","concepts":["correlation_clusters"]},{"id":"earnings","title":"Earnings & gap risk","start":92.506,"end":104.523,"text":"Gap risk is a jump past your stop overnight, often on earnings. 43 names report within 5 sessions, including picks SHOP, ANET and ETN on November 3.","concepts":["gap_risk"]},{"id":"sectors","title":"Sector rotation","start":104.523,"end":112.337,"text":"Over 20 days, energy, health care and staples lead SPY by 13 to 13 points; semis and tech trail by 15 and 8.","concepts":["sector_rotation"]}],"concepts":["realized_implied_vol","vol_risk_premium","vix_term_structure","vwap","residual_returns","z_scores","mean_reversion","expectancy_tstat","correlation_clusters","gap_risk","sector_rotation"],"keyStats":{"spyPct":-0.0231,"qqqPct":-0.0355,"smhPct":-0.0834,"vix":20.68,"vixChg":3.48,"vixLabel":"stress","termStructure":"mild contango (normal)","spyRv20":12.8,"vrp":7.88,"regimeScore":4.5,"regimeLabel":"neutral","trendState":"choppy","advancers":60,"decliners":96,"universe":156},"buckets":[{"key":"long_momentum","title":"Long momentum","n":3,"nEff":2.95,"top":["REGN","AMZN","PSX"]},{"key":"short_momentum","title":"Short momentum","n":6,"nEff":3.56,"top":["RBLX","QCOM","APP","COIN","DDOG"]},{"key":"mean_reversion","title":"Mean reversion","n":17,"nEff":5.4,"top":["SNOW","ASML","GS","NEM","NET"]}],"scorecard":[{"key":"long_momentum","title":"Long momentum","n":378,"expectancyNet":0.00216,"tStat":1.37,"hitRate":0.5185},{"key":"mean_reversion_long","title":"Mean reversion — fade-long leg (after big down day)","n":225,"expectancyNet":0.00167,"tStat":1.26,"hitRate":0.5422},{"key":"mean_reversion","title":"Mean reversion (fade, both sides)","n":559,"expectancyNet":0.00132,"tStat":1.46,"hitRate":0.5331},{"key":"mean_reversion_short","title":"Mean reversion — fade-short leg (after big up day)","n":334,"expectancyNet":0.00109,"tStat":0.89,"hitRate":0.5269},{"key":"short_momentum","title":"Short momentum","n":415,"expectancyNet":-0.00448,"tStat":-3.62,"hitRate":0.4169}],"earningsReactions":[],"upcomingPicksEarnings":[{"symbol":"REGN","date":"2026-10-30","timing":"BMO","gapRisk":"imminent","avgAbsGap":0.0243},{"symbol":"PLTR","date":"2026-11-02","timing":"AMC","gapRisk":"elevated","avgAbsGap":0.0961},{"symbol":"SHOP","date":"2026-11-03","timing":"BMO","gapRisk":"elevated","avgAbsGap":0.1139},{"symbol":"ANET","date":"2026-11-03","timing":"AMC","gapRisk":"elevated","avgAbsGap":0.0887},{"symbol":"ETN","date":"2026-11-03","timing":"BMO","gapRisk":"elevated","avgAbsGap":0.0597},{"symbol":"QCOM","date":"2026-11-04","timing":"AMC","gapRisk":"elevated","avgAbsGap":0.0699},{"symbol":"DDOG","date":"2026-11-04","timing":"BMO","gapRisk":"elevated","avgAbsGap":0.1871},{"symbol":"APP","date":"2026-11-04","timing":"AMC","gapRisk":"elevated","avgAbsGap":0.0978},{"symbol":"NET","date":"2026-11-05","timing":"AMC","gapRisk":"elevated","avgAbsGap":0.1158}],"sectors20d":[{"symbol":"XLE","name":"Energy","rel20d":0.1327,"ret1d":0.0191,"quadrant":"leading"},{"symbol":"XLV","name":"Health Care","rel20d":0.1306,"ret1d":0.0045,"quadrant":"leading"},{"symbol":"XLP","name":"Consumer Staples","rel20d":0.1285,"ret1d":0.0141,"quadrant":"leading"},{"symbol":"XLU","name":"Utilities","rel20d":0.1085,"ret1d":0.0067,"quadrant":"leading"},{"symbol":"XLB","name":"Materials","rel20d":0.0975,"ret1d":0.004,"quadrant":"leading"},{"symbol":"XLRE","name":"Real Estate","rel20d":0.0759,"ret1d":0.0026,"quadrant":"leading"},{"symbol":"XLF","name":"Financials","rel20d":0.0746,"ret1d":-0.0076,"quadrant":"leading"},{"symbol":"XLY","name":"Consumer Discretionary","rel20d":0.0666,"ret1d":-0.0071,"quadrant":"leading"},{"symbol":"XLI","name":"Industrials","rel20d":0.0031,"ret1d":-0.016,"quadrant":"improving"},{"symbol":"XLC","name":"Communication Services","rel20d":-0.0764,"ret1d":-0.0129,"quadrant":"lagging"},{"symbol":"XLK","name":"Technology","rel20d":-0.0835,"ret1d":-0.0489,"quadrant":"lagging"},{"symbol":"SMH","name":"Semiconductors","rel20d":-0.1533,"ret1d":-0.0698,"quadrant":"lagging"}],"learnMore":[{"title":"VIX Index — methodology & FAQ","source":"Cboe","url":"https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/","concepts":["realized_implied_vol","vix_term_structure"]},{"title":"VIX term structure (live)","source":"Cboe","url":"https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/term_structure/","concepts":["vix_term_structure"]},{"title":"Volatility (glossary)","source":"SEC Investor.gov","url":"https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/investing-basics/glossary/volatility","concepts":["realized_implied_vol"]},{"title":"Day trading (glossary)","source":"SEC Investor.gov","url":"https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/investing-basics/glossary/day-trading","concepts":[]},{"title":"Diversify your investments","source":"SEC Investor.gov","url":"https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/investing-basics/save-and-invest/diversify-your-investments","concepts":["correlation_clusters"]},{"title":"Volume-weighted average price (VWAP)","source":"Investopedia","url":"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vwap.asp","concepts":["vwap"]},{"title":"Historical (realized) volatility","source":"Investopedia","url":"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/historicalvolatility.asp","concepts":["realized_implied_vol"]},{"title":"Z-score","source":"Investopedia","url":"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/z/zscore.asp","concepts":["z_scores"]},{"title":"T-test (what a t-statistic measures)","source":"Investopedia","url":"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/t-test.asp","concepts":["expectancy_tstat"]}],"files":{"video":"video.mp4","poster":"poster.png","captions":"captions.vtt","script":"script.md"},"urls":{"video":"https://puuog7v4yk85akmd.public.blob.vercel-storage.com/daily/2026-10-30/20261030T230854Z/video.mp4","poster":"https://puuog7v4yk85akmd.public.blob.vercel-storage.com/daily/2026-10-30/20261030T230854Z/poster.png","captions":"https://puuog7v4yk85akmd.public.blob.vercel-storage.com/daily/2026-10-30/20261030T230854Z/captions.vtt","script":"https://puuog7v4yk85akmd.public.blob.vercel-storage.com/daily/2026-10-30/20261030T230854Z/script.md"},"sources":{"latest":"Yahoo Finance public chart API (https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/) — daily (6mo) and 5-minute (5d, incl. pre/post) bars. Unofficial, may be delayed.","regime":"Yahoo Finance public chart API, daily bars (2y): SPY, ^VIX, ^VIX9D, ^VIX3M and the full TRAI universe for breadth.","scorecard":"Yahoo Finance public chart API (daily, 2y) + TRAI stored runs in Vercel Blob.","events":"Yahoo Finance quoteSummary (calendarEvents, earnings: last 4 reported quarters with report timestamps) via anonymous cookie+crumb session; Yahoo chart API daily bars (2y) for price reactions.","correlations":"Yahoo Finance public chart API, daily bars (1y).","intraday":"Yahoo Finance public chart API, 5-minute regular-session bars (60-day maximum lookback Yahoo serves for 5m).","options":"Yahoo Finance public options endpoint (v7/finance/options) via anonymous cookie+crumb session; Yahoo chart API for realized vol and ^IRX.","macro":"FRED was unreachable from the server, so rates come from US Treasury daily yield-curve CSVs (home.treasury.gov) and dollar/credit use Yahoo Finance proxies (DXY, HYG/IEF, LQD/IEF); Yahoo Finance for sector ETFs and SPY."},"disclaimer":"Screening/research, not investment advice.","publishedAt":"2026-10-30T23:09:15.362Z"}