Macro context & sector rotation
Rates, curve, dollar and credit spreads from FRED, plus sector-ETF relative strength vs SPY to show where money is rotating.
- 10y−2y curve positive at 0.35pp (-0.16pp over ~1 month).
- High-yield vs Treasuries (HYG/IEF) down 2.59 pts over ~1 month (credit underperforming).
- 20-day sector leaders vs SPY: XLV 13.8%, XLP 13.5%, XLRE 11.3%; laggards: XLE 0.2%, XLK -11.6%, SMH -17.5%.
Rates, dollar & credit (US Treasury + Yahoo proxies — FRED unreachable)
| Series | Latest | Value | Δ 1w | Δ 1m | Δ 3m | 1y | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year Treasury yield | 2026-11-06 | 4.86% | -0.08 | -0.42 | +0.21 | Long-term risk-free rate; rising yields pressure long-duration growth stocks. | |
| 2-year Treasury yield | 2026-11-06 | 4.51% | -0.05 | -0.26 | +0.32 | Tracks expected Fed policy over the next two years. | |
| 3-month Treasury yield | 2026-11-06 | 4.19% | +0.03 | -0.03 | +0.32 | Cash rate; proxy for the current policy rate. | |
| 10y − 2y spread | 2026-11-06 | 0.35 | -0.03 | -0.16 | -0.11 | Yield-curve slope; negative = inverted (historically a late-cycle signal). | |
| 10y − 3m spread | 2026-11-06 | 0.67 | -0.11 | -0.39 | -0.11 | Alternative curve slope favored in recession models. | |
| 10-year real yield (TIPS) | 2026-11-06 | 2.63% | +0.03 | -0.29 | +0.23 | Inflation-adjusted rate; a key driver of equity valuations and gold. | |
| 10-year breakeven inflation | 2026-11-06 | 2.23% | -0.11 | -0.13 | -0.02 | Market-implied average inflation over 10 years. | |
| US Dollar Index (ICE DXY) | 2026-11-06 | 102.28 | +0.40 | +0.14 | +2.47 | Dollar vs six major currencies (substitute for the Fed broad dollar index); a rising dollar tightens global financial conditions. | |
| High-yield vs Treasuries (HYG/IEF) | 2026-11-06 | 100.77 | -0.37 | -2.59 | -1.93 | Price ratio of the high-yield bond ETF to the 7–10y Treasury ETF, rebased to 100 one year ago. Falling = junk underperforming Treasuries (credit stress / risk-off). Proxy for the HY OAS, which is only published on FRED. | |
| Investment-grade vs Treasuries (LQD/IEF) | 2026-11-06 | 99.16 | +0.14 | -0.66 | -0.38 | Price ratio of the IG corporate bond ETF to the 7–10y Treasury ETF, rebased to 100 one year ago. Falling = IG credit underperforming (proxy for IG OAS). |
Sector rotation (relative strength vs SPY)
XLVXLPXLREXLBXLFXLYXLUXLIXLCXLEXLKSMH
| ETF | Sector | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 20d vs SPY | 60d vs SPY | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom | Quadrant | > 50d MA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLV | Health Care | -0.06% | -0.04% | +8.19% | +9.75% | +13.75% | +15.23% | 111.0 | 104.8 | leading | ✓ |
| XLP | Consumer Staples | -1.28% | +0.74% | +7.97% | +4.74% | +13.53% | +10.22% | 110.3 | 104.3 | leading | ✓ |
| XLRE | Real Estate | -0.68% | +1.92% | +5.74% | -2.48% | +11.30% | +3.00% | 107.6 | 107.3 | leading | ✓ |
| XLB | Materials | -0.73% | -1.50% | +5.10% | -0.69% | +10.66% | +4.79% | 106.2 | 104.5 | leading | ✓ |
| XLF | Financials | -0.59% | +1.15% | +4.44% | -1.89% | +10.00% | +3.59% | 106.4 | 105.7 | leading | ✓ |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary | -0.05% | +1.91% | +4.19% | -0.73% | +9.75% | +4.75% | 108.0 | 107.2 | leading | ✓ |
| XLU | Utilities | -0.39% | -0.69% | +4.15% | -2.07% | +9.71% | +3.41% | 107.5 | 104.7 | leading | ✓ |
| XLI | Industrials | +0.12% | -2.83% | -3.89% | -12.44% | +1.67% | -6.96% | 100.0 | 103.5 | improving | ✗ |
| XLC | Communication Services | +0.43% | +4.89% | -5.06% | -6.89% | +0.50% | -1.41% | 99.4 | 104.0 | improving | ✗ |
| XLE | Energy | -0.02% | -12.00% | -5.32% | +0.92% | +0.24% | +6.40% | 98.6 | 90.6 | lagging | ✗ |
| XLK | Technology | +1.45% | -8.23% | -17.12% | -13.64% | -11.56% | -8.16% | 91.1 | 93.3 | lagging | ✗ |
| SMH | Semiconductors | +3.62% | -11.20% | -23.10% | -21.25% | -17.54% | -15.77% | 85.5 | 92.3 | lagging | ✗ |