AMAT — Applied Materials

_Last updated 2026-10-23 09:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

Business

Largest US wafer-fab equipment maker (deposition, etch, implant, CMP, inspection) plus services and display — Applied IR.

Catalysts, guidance & news

• No company-specific news found Oct 21–23; −8.16% Oct 22 on Lam read-through, deepening from a ~5% pre-dawn indication (FinancialMarkets.com, 2026-10-22).
• Next earnings 2026-11-12 AMC (TRAI /api/events). AMAT's last 4 earnings: 0% continuation, −4.29% avg day-1 in gap direction — its gaps have tended to reverse.

TRAI data (2026-10-23 8:53 AM ET premarket run; daily stats = Oct 22 session)

• Sector (TRAI): Semis. Oct 22: -8.16%, relVol 2.02, ATR 5.49%, beta60 2.73, indicated gap +0.15%, signals: short_momentum (TRAI /api/latest).
• Next earnings: 2026-11-12 AMC, gap risk None (TRAI /api/events, asOf 2026-10-23).
• Typical earnings reaction (last 4): avg |gap| 7.30% (1.56 ATR), max |gap| 11.13%, gap fill rate 50%, continuation 0%, avg day-1 move in gap direction -4.29% (TRAI /api/events).
• Recent events: 2025-11-13 AMC: gap -8.73%, day-1 +10.93%, close-close +1.25%, EPS surprise 3.65%; 2026-02-12 AMC: gap +11.13%, day-1 -2.75%, close-close +8.08%, EPS surprise 7.89%; 2026-05-14 AMC: gap -2.76%, day-1 +1.91%, close-close -0.89%, EPS surprise 6.5%; 2026-08-13 AMC: gap -6.57%, day-1 +1.56%, close-close -5.12%, EPS surprise 3.11% (TRAI /api/events).
• Correlation cluster 1 (avg ρ 0.588, 60d): ON, MCHP, TXN, ADI, CAT, ANET, VRT, GEV, ETN, AVGO, MU, TSM, ASML, KLAC, AMAT, LRCX, MRVL, ARM, AMD, INTC, NVDA, ORCL, SMCI, DELL (TRAI /api/correlations, asOf 2026-10-22).
• Highest 60d correlations: LRCX 0.91, KLAC 0.87, ASML 0.80, TSM 0.78, CAT 0.71 (TRAI /api/correlations).

Report links

• 2026-10-23 09:00 — semis selloff

2026-11-02 12:00 update

• Day 2 as a TRAI fade-long: gapped +1.33%, +0.17% at 12:10 ET, below VWAP. 5-year replay after SMH ≤ −5% days (n 23): next-day o→c −0.39%, 39% up (my calc). 2026-11-02 12:00 — semis day 2, fade-longs fail, compute/memory vs analog split

2026-11-06 09:00 update — SM residual indicated bounce under suspension

• TRAI premarket 8:58 AM ET: still short_momentum suspended residual; indicatedGapPct +9.1% after Thu SMH −11.21%. Cluster 1 (avgRho 0.64 asOf Nov 5) with TSM/AMAT/KLAC peers.
• Secondary [S-1] Nov 6 Investing.com/CNBC: chip rebound narrative after Thu AI selloff — not an SM reactivation.
• Source: 2026-11-06 09:00 Fri open report.