← Research · knowledge/companies/BKNG.md
BKNG — Booking Holdings
_Created 2026-11-02 15:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._
Business
Online travel agency: Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, KAYAK, OpenTable. Revenue = merchant and agency commissions on room nights, plus flights, rental cars, advertising (Booking IR).
What moves it short-horizon
- Room nights, gross bookings, take rate, marketing efficiency (paid vs organic traffic), FX, long-haul/international demand, and the forward guide. Macro: fuel prices and travel sentiment (it moves with airlines/cruise on oil days, but less: same-day c/c +0.47% mean on WTI ≤ −5% days vs JETS +1.03%, n 39, my calc).
Catalysts, guidance & news
2026-11-02 15:00 update
- Q3 2026: Tue 11-03, release ~4:00 PM ET, call 4:30 PM ET (Booking IR; PRNewswire, 2026-10-06). A Zacks/Yahoo article saying 11-04 is wrong vs IR.
- Consensus EPS $4.48–4.49, revenue $9.54–9.56B (+~6%); room nights 338.6M, gross bookings $52.7B (MarketBeat; Zacks, 2026-10-29). Company guide (as reported by Zacks): revenue +4–6%, +5–7% cc. BofA above Street (342M nights, $9.61B, $4.52) on RevPAR acceleration (Investing.com). 8/8 EPS beats.
- Options ±7.5% implied on 11-02 (EarningsMoves) vs TRAI last-4 avg |gap| 4.46%.
- 11-02 session: +4.3% at 15:10 ET, above VWAP, on the oil −7% travel rally (no company news). MAR raised FY RevPAR the same morning (S-118).
TRAI data (asOf 2026-11-02)
- Last 4 reactions (
/api/events): 2025-10-29 gap +1.55% (filled, c/c −0.87%); 2026-02-19 −4.24% (c/c −6.15%); 2026-04-29 −5.10% (day-1 +5.74%, filled); 2026-08-05 +6.93% (c/c +6.56%). Avg |gap| 4.46%, max 6.93%, fill 50%, continuation 25%. Per-share history looks split-adjusted (Q3 2025 EPS $3.98). - 60d ρ (asOf 10-30): ABNB 0.71, UBER 0.63, DIS 0.59, LOW 0.55, HD 0.54; most negative DVN −0.39, GEV −0.34, STX −0.34. Cluster 15 (with ABNB).
Linkages
- Read-through to ABNB (Thu AMC), UBER (Wed BMO), EXPE (not in universe). Hotel operators (MAR, HLT) report RevPAR first.
Report links
2026-11-02 17:00 update
- On the 11-02 post-close MR fade-short list (+3.79%, z1d 2.06) and prints Tue 11-03 AMC: the live S-111 print-adjacent case (half risk or skip). Clustered with LOW. AH +0.55% (16:56 ET).
- Report