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GOOGL — Alphabet

_Last updated 2026-10-29 16:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

Business

Google Services (Search & other, YouTube ads, subscriptions/platforms/devices) monetized mainly by ads; Google Cloud (GCP, Workspace, AI infrastructure incl. TPUs); Other Bets (Alphabet IR).

What moves it short-horizon

  • Google Cloud growth/margin and TPU external sales; Search growth (AI-search disruption debate); capex guide, FCF and financing (equity/ATM/debt); non-operating equity-investment marks swing GAAP EPS (Pepperstone, 2026-10-22).

Catalysts, guidance & news

2026-10-29 16:00 update

  • Q3 2026 (10-28 AMC): EPS $2.12 vs $3.01, revenue $127.58B vs $127.93B, search +12% (miss), cloud $30.71B. FCF −$9.07B vs −$2.70B expected. Capex guide $195–205B maintained; 2027 higher. 10-29: −12.64%, worst post-earnings day (CNBC, 2026-10-29; Yahoo Finance). TRAI indicated gap at 8:53 AM: −11.31%.
  • Q3 2026: Wed 2026-10-28 AMC, call 4:30 PM ET (Alphabet IR, 2026-10-06). Same night as MSFT; FOMC decision 2 PM that day (Fed calendar). Reaction session Thu 10-29 (also GDP/PCE 8:30 ET and AMZN AMC).
  • Expectations: EPS $2.94, revenue $111.64B, Cloud $29.16B (+92.4%), Search & other $64.99B (+14.9%) (Yahoo/Zacks); BofA: rev $111.4B / GAAP EPS $3.07 vs Street $111.0B / $2.98, Cloud +93% vs ~89%, 2026 capex ~$200B, 2027 ~$300B (Proactive); buy-side GCP bogey +105–115% (Finvaulta summary of JPM desk, 2026-10-21).
  • Q2 2026 (2026-07-22 AMC): revenue $119.8B (+24%), Cloud +82% to $24.8B, EPS $9.11 incl. $98.0B net gain (mostly unrealized, equity securities); Q2 FCF −$5.86B; raised $49.6B equity + $40.0B ATM program (Q2 release on SEC); 2026 capex guide raised to $195–205B from $180–190B, stock ~−7% next day (CFO Dive, 2026-07-30).
  • 2026-10-23: Anthropic-managed Claude deployment option GA on Google Cloud (Google Cloud blog). −0.66% at 14:05 ET (Yahoo 5m).
  • Data caveat: TRAI EPS surprises of +91.59% (Q1) and +214.23% (Q2) reflect equity-investment gains vs an adjusted consensus — not operating beats (S-040).

TRAI data (2026-10-23 8:53 AM ET premarket run; daily stats = Oct 22 session)

  • Sector (TRAI): Internet/Media. Oct 22: -3.15%, relVol 1.16, ATR 2.62%, beta60 1.14, indicated gap -0.78%, signals: mean_reversion_fade_long (TRAI /api/latest).
  • Next earnings: 2026-10-28 AMC, tradingDaysUntil 3, sessionsToReaction 4, gap risk elevated (TRAI /api/events, asOf 2026-10-23).
  • Typical earnings reaction (last 4): avg |gap| 6.37% (2.45 ATR), max |gap| 6.90%, gap fill rate 0%, continuation 50%, avg day-1 move in gap direction -1.41% (TRAI /api/events).
  • Recent events: 2025-10-29 AMC: gap +6.20%, day-1 -3.47%, close-close +2.52%, EPS surprise 26.88%; 2026-02-04 AMC: gap -6.25%, day-1 +6.10%, close-close -0.54%, EPS surprise 7.01%; 2026-04-29 AMC: gap +6.90%, day-1 +2.87%, close-close +9.96%, EPS surprise 91.59%; 2026-07-22 AMC: gap -6.13%, day-1 -1.07%, close-close -7.13%, EPS surprise 214.23% (TRAI /api/events).
  • Options: IV30 37.6%, RV20 21.0%; implied earnings move ±6.21% (expiry 2026-10-30, 0.98× hist avg |gap|) (TRAI /api/options, asOf 2026-10-22).
  • Correlation cluster 20 (avg ρ 0.723, 60d): GOOGL, AMZN (TRAI /api/correlations, asOf 2026-10-22).
  • Highest 60d correlations: AMZN 0.72, SNAP 0.45, PINS 0.44, AFRM 0.37, SOFI 0.35; most negative: LIN -0.32, MDLZ -0.27, DUK -0.23 (TRAI /api/correlations).

Linkages

  • GOOGL–AMZN ρ 0.72 is the only mega-cap pair that clusters; low ρ to semis (NVDA 0.12, AVGO 0.19, VRT 0.21) despite large read-through on capex days (report §4).

Report links