← Research · knowledge/companies/PM.md
PM: Philip Morris International
_Last updated 2026-11-06 13:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._
Business
International cigarettes plus smoke-free products (IQOS heated tobacco, ZYN oral nicotine, VEEV); SFP was >40% of Q3 2026 revenue. TRAI sector: Consumer Staples; 60d cluster 19 with MO (avg ρ 0.685 asOf 2026-11-05) — no longer co-clustered with food/HPC cluster 4.
Catalysts, guidance & news
- Q3 (2026-10-21 BMO): revenue $11.4B (+5.5%, +7.1% organic); adj. EPS $2.36 (+5.4%); reported $2.12 (PMI release).
- Guide: adj. EPS $8.29–$8.44 kept, management pointed to the middle-to-lower half on energy/Ukraine/US investment (IR + secondary coverage from the print week).
- US ZYN: shipments +4.2% to 3.2B pouches in Q3; Q4 commercial investment rises further (flagship move to 20-pouch cans; call commentary notes ~25% revenue-per-pouch if price/can unchanged — secondary).
- Japan local IR (not US earnings): bonds by IQOS / blends limited-sale expansion to 17 prefectures from 2026-11-09, online 11-18 (PMJ, 2026-11-05); cigarette retail-price revision application targeting 2027-02-01 if approved (PMJ, 2026-11-02).
- Regulatory (secondary, unadjudicated): planned Dutch complaint over IQOS advertising/harm claims (~Nov 2 announce; mid-Nov filing target).
- Next print: TRAI
next = null; historically early February.
TRAI data
- Reaction 10-21: gap −6.38% (2.51 ATR), day-1 +5.51%, close-close −1.22%. Last 4: avg |gap| 3.17% (1.21 ATR), fill 25% (
/api/events). - Thu 2026-11-05: close 201.50, pctChg −4.63%, z1d −2.54, residualZ −5.0, relVol 1.96, β60 −0.59, rangePos 0.051 → short_momentum (suspended) on the Fri 8:58 premarket run (
/api/latest). - Fri 2026-11-06 ~13:13 ET (Yahoo): ~199.23 (~−1.13% vs Thu) while SPY ~+0.54% — residual crush continuing, not fading midday.
- Top 60d ρ (asOf 11-05): MO 0.69, KO 0.55, MDLZ/PG 0.47, PEP 0.46, WMT 0.29 (
/api/correlations).
Linkages
- Cluster-19 tobacco with MO; food/HPC live in cluster 4; WMT in cluster 13 — do not book as one "staples" residual (S-147).
- Peer-event exposure historically: MO same-sign ~65–74% on PM prints; PEP often opposite (prior Oct 23 calc).
- Crowding backdrop: XLP still a 20d leader vs SPY (+14.7% asOf 11-05) while SMH lags — defensive give-back risk when SPY stabilizes.