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SOFI — SoFi Technologies
_Last updated 2026-10-29 16:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._
Business
Digital consumer lender/bank (personal and student loans, deposits) plus a technology-platform segment.
Catalysts, guidance & news
2026-10-29 16:00 update
- Q3 2026 (10-27 BMO), beat and raise: adj. net revenue $1.4B (+44%), adj. EBITDA $469.8M, members 17.1M (+1.2M). FY26 guide raised to $5.04B revenue, $1.66B EBITDA, $0.61 EPS. 2027 guide: $6.4B revenue, $2.24B EBITDA (SoFi IR, 2026-10-27).
- Reaction: +13.42% (10-27), +4.51% (10-28), +2.74% (10-29, open→close +4.20%). After hours −2.1%. 3-year base rate after +4% days: next open→close −0.15% (n 94, t −0.49), so no clear fade (my calc; report §10). ORCL ρ 0.64.
- 2026-10-27 BMO: EPS est. $0.17, revenue est. $1.3B (Investing Calendar).
- Large post-print drift on days 2–5 historically (see below).
TRAI data (2026-10-23 8:53 AM ET premarket run; daily stats = Oct 22 session)
- Sector (TRAI): Financials. Oct 22: -0.87%, relVol 0.9, ATR 4.31%, beta60 3.49, indicated gap -1.42% (TRAI /api/latest).
- Next earnings: 2026-10-27 BMO, gap risk elevated (TRAI /api/events, asOf 2026-10-23).
- Typical earnings reaction (last 4): avg |gap| 4.26% (0.89 ATR), max |gap| 7.41%, gap fill rate 75%, continuation 75%, avg day-1 move in gap direction -1.58% (TRAI /api/events).
- Recent events: 2025-10-28 BMO: gap +3.30%, day-1 +2.16%, close-close +5.53%, EPS surprise 23.01%; 2026-01-30 BMO: gap +4.39%, day-1 -10.30%, close-close -6.36%, EPS surprise 8.66%; 2026-04-27 AMC: gap -1.95%, day-1 -0.19%, close-close -2.13%, EPS surprise -4.17%; 2026-07-29 BMO: gap -7.41%, day-1 -1.61%, close-close -8.90%, EPS surprise 9.89% (TRAI /api/events).
- Correlation cluster 11 (avg ρ 0.641, 60d): HIMS, SOFI, AFRM (TRAI /api/correlations, asOf 2026-10-22).
- Highest 60d correlations: AFRM 0.74, HIMS 0.70, ORCL 0.64, HOOD 0.64, COIN 0.58 (TRAI /api/correlations).