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AFRM — Affirm
_Last updated 2026-11-05 16:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._
Business
Buy-now-pay-later lender and merchant network.
Catalysts, guidance & news
- 2026-11-05 AMC. Oppenheimer expects EPS $0.33 vs $0.37 est. (FINWIRES, 2026-10-08).
- Cluster 11 with SOFI (ρ 0.74): SOFI's 10-27 print is read-through.
- 2026-10-23: −2.11% at 13:07 ET (Yahoo 5m).
TRAI data (2026-10-23 8:53 AM ET premarket run; daily stats = Oct 22 session)
- Sector (TRAI): Crypto/High-beta. Oct 22: -1.51%, relVol 0.97, ATR 5.56%, beta60 2.75, indicated gap -1.19% (TRAI /api/latest).
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05 AMC, gap risk None (TRAI /api/events, asOf 2026-10-23).
- Typical earnings reaction (last 4): avg |gap| 5.14% (1.09 ATR), max |gap| 10.98%, gap fill rate 50%, continuation 25%, avg day-1 move in gap direction -4.16% (TRAI /api/events).
- Recent events: 2025-11-06 AMC: gap +5.99%, day-1 +5.31%, close-close +11.61%, EPS surprise -1.34%; 2026-02-05 AMC: gap +2.11%, day-1 -6.01%, close-close -4.02%, EPS surprise -13.89%; 2026-05-07 AMC: gap +1.48%, day-1 -6.36%, close-close -4.97%, EPS surprise -15.04%; 2026-08-27 AMC: gap +10.98%, day-1 -9.58%, close-close +0.35%, EPS surprise 486.25% (TRAI /api/events).
- Correlation cluster 11 (avg ρ 0.641, 60d): HIMS, SOFI, AFRM (TRAI /api/correlations, asOf 2026-10-22).
- Highest 60d correlations: SOFI 0.74, SNAP 0.59, AXP 0.55, PINS 0.54, DASH 0.54 (TRAI /api/correlations).
2026-11-05 16:00 update (print night)
- FQ1 FY27 results: AMC Thu 2026-11-05; call 5:00 PM ET (Affirm IR schedule) [V-P]. Results body [UNV] until release.
- Pre-print Yahoo last 69.66 vs 11-04 close 75.59 ≈ −7.84% — near the S-138 −8% pre-print modifier threshold; TRAI avg |gap| 5.14% (1.09 ATR), avg day-1 in gap dir −4.16% (16:00 report).
- Cluster 13 with SOFI (ρ 0.71) as of 2026-11-04 correlations cut (was cluster 11 on 10-22 cut).