APP: AppLovin

_Created 2026-11-02 10:00 ET from report. Updated 2026-11-05 15:00 ET with Q3 actuals. Screening/research, not investment advice._

Business

Mobile advertising technology: the AXON AI ad engine helps app developers acquire users and monetize. Gaming advertisers are still the majority of revenue. Model improvements drive growth, and compute is a rising cost (about $0.10 of compute per extra $ of revenue, per the Q2 call) (Trefis, 2026-11-01). TRAI sector: Software. Cluster 12 with QCOM and RBLX (avg ρ 0.589 asOf 2026-11-04). Top ρ: RBLX 0.62, QCOM 0.56 (/api/correlations).

Catalysts, guidance & news

• Q3 2026 printed AMC Wed 2026-11-04 (AppLovin IR, 2026-11-04 [V-P]; webinar 5:00 PM ET):
• Revenue $2,185M (+55% YoY vs $1,405M); prior company guide was $2.055–2.085B.
• Net income $1,439M (+72%), 66% net margin; diluted EPS $4.30 (basic $4.31).
• Adj. EBITDA $1,842M (84% margin).
• Q3 OCF $1,428.842M; FCF $1,418.443M (≈ $1.4B).
• Buyback: Q3 bought/withheld 4.1M Class A for $1.4B; 331M Class A+B outstanding EoQ; board +$3.2B authorization → $3.6B total remaining as of end-Oct.
• Q4 guide: revenue $2,365–$2,395M; adj. EBITDA $1,995–$2,025M; adj. EBITDA margin 84–85%.
• Reaction: AH 11-04 ~+23% to $334.06 (MarketWatch, secondary). Reaction day 11-05: Yahoo open 349.94, last ~351.8 (~+29.5% vs TRAI 11-04 close 271.75) by ~15:08 ET (Yahoo unofficial). See 15:00 report.
• Securities class actions: class period 2026-02-12 → 08-05; lead-plaintiff deadline 2026-11-16 — still accurate as of a 2026-11-05 Kessler Topaz notice (Business Wire).
• Q2 (08-05): revenue +52.8% to $1.92B; stock −19.7% on 08-06. "Pace of meaningful model improvement" was lighter than normal.
• 2026-10-30: −10.4% to $228.50, with no company announcement (Trefis).

TRAI data

• 11-04 session (in 11-05 08:58 premarket run): long_momentum, close 271.75 (+10.69%), relVol 3.72, rangePos 0.854, indicatedGapPct +0.2394.
• Last 4 prints (pre-11-04; /api/events not yet appended): avg |gap| 11.2%, fill 33%. Reaction c/c history includes −19.7% / +6.4% / −19.7%.
• Cluster-12 divergence on 11-05: APP ~+30% while QCOM ~−9% on its own handset print — ρ ≠ same-day catalyst co-move.

Report links

• 2026-11-02 10:00: software day 2, ISM
• 2026-11-05 15:00: APP print day 2, tonight AMC MCHP/NET/TEAM

2026-11-06 10:00 update — day-2 after Thu +31%

• Thu reaction C 356.10 (+31.04% c/c; events gap +28.73% / 6.09 ATR). Fri Yahoo O 353.50 / H ~380.6 / L 348.95 / last ~375 (~+5% vs Thu close by ~10:31).
• LM empty — day-2 continuation is not a live LM signal. S-005 / S-066 / S-137: no drift premium; do not MR-fade the prior huge gap.
• Source: 2026-11-06 10:00 report.

2026-11-06 17:00 update — day-2 LM continuation

• Yahoo Fri 391.22 (+9.86%) O 355.95 / H 398.00 / L 348.95; TRAI long_momentum, residZ +2.02, rangePos 0.862, relVol 2.23. Cluster 27 singleton.
• Still on Wed AMC Q3 print (AppLovin IR [V-P]). S-005 / S-066 / S-137: descriptive day-2 only — not a Monday LM seed. Feeds S-151.
• Source: 2026-11-06 17:00 report.