2026-11-06 10:00 EST — VST webcast-hour reaction + CEG peer into Mon; MR fade-longs under STRESS; AMC leftovers NET/TEAM/MCHP + APP day-2

Hourly research report. Research slot: Friday November 6, 2026, 10:00 AM EST (America/New_York). Market/API evidence captured approximately 8:58 AM ET (TRAI premarket run) and ~10:10–10:31 AM ET (Yahoo regular-session snapshots during/after the VST webcast start). Issuer primaries cited below; later publication does not refresh those price observations. Screening/research, not investment advice. No rule is implemented by this report.

Actionable for today's trading: YES. VST's webcast-hour path is holding a large positive reaction (~+7% vs Thu close) after the S-141 crush→raise print, and ρ≈0.845 peer CEG is printing sympathy (~+4%) into Mon 2026-11-09 BMO / call 9:00 ET — size peer gap-risk, do not treat the bounce as SM reactivation. Same-day do not MR-fade the large earnings gaps on NET / TEAM / MCHP (S-006 live cases). MR fade-long watchlist (HON/TMO/BLK/AMGN/ZS/COIN/BAC/MSTR) is mixed into the 10:00 live-rule window under STRESS + VIX9D/VIX>1, with scorecard liveRules still mean R −0.052 / TARGET 0 — no validated fade edge.

1. Incremental focus (rotate from 09:00)

The 09:00 Fri open report covered VST/MRNA BMO facts and the semis indicated bounce while SM stayed suspended. This hour rotates to:

1. VST open / webcast-hour reaction path (webcast began 10:00 AM ET Nov 6 per issuer) and CEG peer sympathy into Mon 2026-11-09.
2. Mean-reversion fade-longs under STRESS at the 10:00 AM ET live-rule window: HON, TMO, BLK, AMGN, ZS, COIN, BAC, MSTR.
3. Leftover Thu AMC day-1 reactions: NET (beat/raise gap up), TEAM (outlook scare gap down), MCHP (soft sequential guide), plus APP day-2 after Thu ~+31% reaction.

Prior AMC detail: Nov 5 17:00 postclose, 15:00 APP/AMC preview.

2. Live TRAI evidence and clock audit

Read-only API checks returned HTTP 200 around finalization. Linked endpoints are mutable, not immutable historical snapshots. Sources: latest, events, correlations, regime, scorecard.

Scorecard constraint [TRAI above]: liveRules all — n 196, mean R −0.0524, distinctDays 10, perDayMeanR −0.0502, day-bootstrap 90% CI [−0.1259, +0.0203], enoughDays false; exitMix TARGET 0 / TIME 191 / STOP 5. Live-rule uses 10:00 AM EST entry, 1 ATR stop / 2 ATR target, 60-minute time stop. Do not claim new live-rule edge.

Yahoo regular-session snapshots (refresh; not invent)

APP Nov 6 daily bar (Yahoo, may still update): O 353.50 / H ~380.55 (10:31 read) / L 348.95 / last ~375–377. Prior reaction day 11-05 C 356.10 (+31.04% c/c in TRAI events).

Source for quotes: Yahoo Finance chart meta regularMarketPrice vs chartPreviousClose (unofficial; delayed possible). Not executable TRAI fills.

3. VST webcast-hour path after crush→raise [V-P]

Primary [V-P], issuer release November 6, 2026: Vistra Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results. Schedule notice: Sep 29, 2026. Earnings webcast today Nov 6 beginning at 10 a.m. ET (issuer).

Confirmed issuer facts (same as 09:00; re-verified via IR page open this hour):

• GAAP Q3 NI $1,140M, including unrealized hedge gain $559M expected to settle in future years.
• Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA $2,378M (>50% YoY).
• Raised midpoint / narrowed 2026 Ongoing Ops Adj EBITDA $7.1–$7.5B and FCFbG $4.3–$4.7B; initiated 2027 $7.7–$8.5B / $4.3–$5.1B.
• Board +$1.5B share repurchase authorization (expected utilization by YE 2028).
• Cogentrix ~5,500 MW closed Oct 2026; Pulaski 405 MW (Microsoft PPA); Deer Creek 100 MW; 20y 207 MW PPA New Era at Odessa.

Path: 11-04 C 120.29 (−13.83%) → 11-05 ~112.9 (−6%) → ~−19% two-day into BMO (S-141) → TRAI 8:58 indicated +5.86% → Yahoo ~10:10–10:31 ~+7.1–7.4% vs 112.89 while the webcast window is open. SM residual tag remains under suspended status — no reactivation.

Vendor consensus beat/miss on revenue: Investing.com vs MarketBeat narratives disagree [S-1 / UNKNOWN reliability]. Prefer issuer tables; do not invent a consensus revenue surprise.

Webcast Q&A / guidance commentary beyond the release: not independently transcribed this hour → [UNV] for call color.

4. CEG peer sympathy into Mon 2026-11-09 [S-1 / TRAI]

• Correlations [TRAI]: cluster 23, VST+CEG, avgRho 0.845 (asOf 2026-11-05).
• Events [TRAI]: CEG next 2026-11-09 BMO, gapRisk imminent, isEstimate false, last-4 avg \|gap\| 3.60% (0.81 ATR), fill 100% (descriptive n=4), avg day-1 in gap dir −3.18%.
• Call time: secondary calendars (MarketBeat / prior KB) cite 9:00 AM ET Mon Nov 9 — mark [S-1]. Constellation IR events page returned HTTP 403 this hour; BMO wire time not re-confirmed from issuer HTML this hour → treat release timing label as TRAI-calendar + secondary until issuer page opens cleanly.
• Yahoo path: CEG ~+4.0% vs 239.65 into VST webcast hour (sympathy, not CEG's own print).
• Policy: S-004 / S-132 / S-141 / S-143 — size Friday→Monday peer gap-risk; VST raise does not clear CEG \|gap\| sizing; SM stays suspended. Friday CEG sympathy is not a Monday open print (Auditor handoff — see §8).

5. MR fade-longs under STRESS at the 10:00 live-rule window

Universe (8:58 premarket run): HON (residZ −3.5), TMO, BLK, AMGN, ZS, COIN, BAC, MSTR — all mean_reversion_fade_long, bucket active, regime stress, VIX9D/VIX 1.213.

Early regular-session prints (~10:10–10:31 Yahoo): mixed — HON/TMO/BLK/BAC soft greens; AMGN near flat then slight green; ZS flipped from ~+1.2% staging to −0.95% by ~10:31; COIN/MSTR red. Not a clean one-way mean-reversion tape.

Constraint: liveRules mean R −0.052, TARGET 0/196, enoughDays false. Do not size these as established edge. Feeds new S-144 (regime-split NEEDS DATA) and prior S-012 / S-046 / S-098 residual/regime research.

Earnings-gap names are not this MR list — NET/TEAM/MCHP/APP are handled under S-006 / S-005 / S-137, not as fade-long candidates.

6. Leftover Thu AMC day-1 reactions + APP day-2

NET — Cloudflare beat/raise, gap held [V-P]

Primary [V-P], Nov 5, 2026: Cloudflare Announces Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results.

• Revenue $782.5M (+39% YoY); non-GAAP dil. EPS $0.38; cRPO +37%.
• Q4 rev $845–846M; FY26 rev $2,963–2,964M; FY non-GAAP NI/sh $1.35.
• Counter-notes (issuer): non-GAAP GM 72.4% vs 75.3% YoY; FCF margin 10% vs 13%.

Path: TRAI indicated +20.5% → Yahoo day-1 ~+11–12% vs Thu close 244.51 by ~10:10–10:31 (still a large unrefilled gap). S-006: do not same-day MR-fade. No current LM signal (LM empty). Cluster-5 peers (ZS et al.) are separate — NET–ZS ρ ~0.76 is not automatic peer-long inheritance under stress.

TEAM — Atlassian outlook scare, large down gap [V-P / S-1]

Primary [V-P] (prior successful open; IR event page re-confirmed this hour): FQ1 FY27 event Nov 5, 2026 5:00 PM ET (Atlassian IR event). Issuer release (Business Wire, cited in 17:00 KB): rev $1.772B (+24%), Cloud $1.302B (+31%), non-GAAP EPS $1.65; FY guide raised vs Aug 6 exhibit (ARR/rev/Cloud growth to 18.5%/13.75%/26.0%, Data Center −16% vs prior −17%) — not a guide cut.

Secondary [S-1], CNBC Nov 5 5:07 PM EST (article): Atlassian dropped more than 15% AH; cites YoY data-center revenue growth expected to decline ~14% in FQ2 and ~16% FY. Prefer issuer tables for levels; use CNBC for AH path attribution only.

Path: TRAI indicated −15.35% → Yahoo day-1 ~−14.5% to −16.7% vs 183.29. S-006 applies. Software sector label must not merge NET's beat-raise with TEAM's collab/DC outlook scare (S-014 evidence).

MCHP — soft sequential guide, SM residual still suspended [V-P]

Primary [V-P] (17:00 KB): Microchip Q2 FY27 results — rev $1,621.5M; Q3 guide midpoint ~−1% QoQ; ~$53M infrequent Q2 sales not recurring.

Path: Thu cash 64.85 (−13.92%) with soft AH; Fri Yahoo ~−10% to −13% vs that close while still an SM suspended residual (8:58 residZ −2.88, indGap only +1.02% into the open — the large move is already in the Thu bar). No SM reactivation; no same-day MR-fade of the earnings dislocation.

APP — day-2 after Thu +31% [V-P / Yahoo]

Thu reaction C 356.10 (+31.04% c/c; events gap +28.73% / 6.09 ATR). Fri Yahoo O 353.50, H ~380.6, L 348.95, last ~375 (~+5% vs Thu close by ~10:31). LM empty — day-2 continuation is not a live LM signal. S-005 / S-066 / S-137 still apply (no drift premium; don't fade the prior huge gap as MR).

7. Proposed tests only — reinforce existing; add S-144

No live engine changes.

1. S-006 evidence add: live Fri cases — NET ~+11–12% unrefilled beat-raise gap; TEAM ~−15–17% outlook-scare gap; MCHP still deeply dislocated vs pre-print; APP day-2 still elevated after +31% day-1. Do not same-day MR-fade these earnings gaps (bigGaps fillRate ~2% class).
2. S-004 / S-132 / S-141 / S-143: VST webcast-hour ~+7% with CEG sympathy ~+4% into Mon BMO — peer gap-risk stays on; SM stays suspended.
3. S-014 evidence add: same AMC night, edge/security beat-raise (NET) vs collab/DC outlook scare (TEAM) — opposite signed day-1 paths. Do not treat TRAI "Software" as one factor.
4. New PROPOSAL S-144 (NEEDS DATA): under STRESS and VIX9D/VIX > 1, require a regime-split test before sizing MR fade-longs of non-earnings residual downs (HON/TMO/AMGN class). Cite early Fri mixed prints + liveRules negative / TARGET 0. Distinct from S-012 (residual replay) by conditioning explicitly on the inversion flag.
5. Whiggity Auditor / yoo handoffs → NEEDS DATA log (not truths): see §8.

Acceptance: timestamped sources, no look-ahead, costs, day-level resampling, OOS, multiple-testing caution; live scorecard <30 distinct days remains insufficient.

8. Whiggity consultation and remaining unknowns

• Whiggity [Monica chat](https://monica.im/home/chat/whiggity/3c2KpwYO?convId=conv%3A5842299f-e9d8-40b1-a4c2-18b6e465c94d): sign-in worked; tool budget exhausted after topic 1. Topics 2–3 returned NOT FOUND / [UNV] by whiggity. Keep only verifiable overlaps with our primary opens.
• Verified-overlapping (also in VST IR primary): F1–F10 VST print facts used in §3 / 09:00 report.
• F11–F12: CEG call Mon 2026-11-09 09:00 ET — retain as [S-1] (issuer IR page not successfully opened this hour).
• F13–F15: marked [UNV] by whiggity — we independently filled Yahoo prices + Cloudflare IR + CNBC for AMC paths (not from whiggity).
• Handoffs to log as open questions / strategy proposals (not findings):
• Auditor: fade-long sample conditioned on VIX9D/VIX>1? residualZ≤−3 under STRESS vs NORMAL 60-min stats? look-ahead in regime flag?
• Auditor: VST→CEG ρ on earnings days vs unconditional? Mon peer print outside 60-min hold → is CEG risk primarily Friday sympathy vs Monday gap?
• yoo: peer-reports-within-1-session flag for CEG; APP day-2 membership in MR universe?
• Exact webcast Q&A color: [UNV].
• Constellation issuer confirmation of BMO wire clock: not opened (403) → [UNV] beyond TRAI events + secondary.
• Investing.com AH movers page: 403 this hour — cite CNBC + issuer primaries instead; parent-provided Investing.com numbers treated as [S-1] staging only where not independently reopened.
• Live-rule edge: still not established.

9. Actionable checklist for today (research framing only)