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BX — Blackstone
_Last updated 2026-10-23 15:00 ET from report (first written 09:00 from report). Screening/research, not investment advice._
Business
Largest alternative asset manager (PE, real estate, credit & insurance, infrastructure); earns management fees plus performance revenue on realizations — Reuters, 2026-10-22.
Catalysts, guidance & news
- 2026-10-22 BMO, Q3: distributable EPS $1.32 vs $1.26 est. (from $1.52 y/y); inflows $63.3B; FRE $1.6B (+6%); net realizations $332M (−34%); GAAP revenue $3.06B, below estimates; mgmt expects Q4 realizations to rise significantly and double-digit base-fee growth in 2027 (Yahoo Finance/TIKR, 2026-10-22). AUM $1.37T; stock down ~30% YTD before the print; BCRED redemption requests elevated in Q3 (Reuters). Infrastructure marks +6.4% q/q (MarketWatch, 2026-10-22).
- Closed +8.38% at $118.75 after gapping −2.05% (TRAI). Long-momentum candidate today (residual z 6.19); indicated −1.67% at 8:53 ET. Same correlation cluster as AXP (reported today).
- 2026-10-23: −1.73% at 13:07 ET while AXP (cluster 8, ρ 0.53) fell −4.15% after its print — peer-event risk (strategy S-004) (report §3).
- BCRED (from the Q3 call): Q3 net outflows widened to $1.4B; repurchase requests were 10% of NAV (2× the 5% cap) and ~50% were filled; NAV/share was $23.51 (5th straight decline). No Q4 request outlook was given. The final Q3 repurchase total will be disclosed "in November" (AltsWire, 2026-10-22). Credit & insurance AUM was $480B, with inflows of $35.8B (Alternative Credit Investor, 2026-10-22).
- 2026-10-23 15:12 ET: −1.29% (o→c +0.32%), vs the alt-peer average of about −2.0% and XLF −1.24%. Financials led today's declines (Reuters) (report §2.4).
- Oct 22 was partly a group move. Peers rose 2.8–5.9% that day. BX's residual z is 6.16 vs SPY only, but 3.67 vs SPY plus an alt-peer basket (my calc; S-046) (report §2.3).
- Peer-print calendar (context names, IR-verified): ARES, OWL and TPG Thu 10-29 BMO; APO Tue 11-03 BMO; CG Thu 11-05; BAM Fri 11-06 BMO; KKR Mon 11-09 BMO. BX's reaction-day sign matched KKR's/CG's prints 92% of the time. On the crowded 2026-02-05 morning BX fell −5.73% (my calc; S-047).
- Day 2 after its own prints (Yahoo, n 17): mean o→c −0.43%. Next print ~late Jan (Yahoo estimate 2027-01-28; not announced).
- BCRED filing calendar (from SEC EDGAR, pattern-inferred; whiggity consult): the 10%-vs-5% Q3 cap was already disclosed on 2026-09-03 (SC TO-I/A letter). In past years the final Q3 tender result and the Q4 tender launch were filed on the first business day of November (2024-11-01, 2025-11-03), so ~Mon 11-02 this year. The 10-Q comes ~11-12/13, and Q4 requests are disclosed in early December. None of these dates is announced (report §9).
TRAI data (2026-10-23 8:53 AM ET premarket run; daily stats = Oct 22 session)
- Sector (TRAI): Financials. Oct 22: +8.38%, relVol 2.12, ATR 3.55%, beta60 1.93, indicated gap -1.67%, signals: long_momentum (TRAI /api/latest).
- Next earnings: none on file (next = null) (TRAI /api/events, asOf 2026-10-23).
- Typical earnings reaction (last 4): avg |gap| 1.66% (0.5 ATR), max |gap| 2.63%, gap fill rate 75%, continuation 25%, avg day-1 move in gap direction -3.35% (TRAI /api/events).
- Recent events: 2026-01-29 BMO: gap +0.82%, day-1 -3.42%, close-close -2.62%, EPS surprise 13.92%; 2026-04-23 BMO: gap -2.63%, day-1 -3.16%, close-close -5.70%, EPS surprise 1.69%; 2026-07-23 BMO: gap -1.12%, day-1 +2.51%, close-close +1.37%, EPS surprise 13.71%; 2026-10-22 BMO: gap -2.05%, day-1 +10.65%, close-close +8.38%, EPS surprise 4.88% (TRAI /api/events).
- Correlation cluster 8 (avg ρ 0.582, 60d): KKR, BX, BA, BLK, AXP, COF (TRAI /api/correlations, asOf 2026-10-22).
- Highest 60d correlations: KKR 0.82, INTU 0.57, HD 0.57, AXP 0.53, BLK 0.52 (TRAI /api/correlations).