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IBM: International Business Machines
_Last updated 2026-10-23 10:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._
Business
Software (Red Hat hybrid cloud, automation, data, mainframe transaction processing), Consulting, and Infrastructure (IBM Z mainframes, distributed servers/storage) (IBM release, 2026-10-21). TRAI labels it Hardware, but it correlates most with application software (NOW 0.58).
Catalysts, guidance & news
- Dividend: $1.69/share, record Nov 10, payable Dec 10 (IBM release); ex-date Nov 10 per MarketBeat. Mechanical ~0.7% ex-date gap.
- Q3 detail (CNBC): software $7.80B beat the $7.66B StreetAccount consensus; adj. gross margin 58.5% vs 59.1% est.; consulting $5.34B vs $5.37B (CNBC, 2026-10-21). CEO on the call: TP double-digit growth not expected to continue (Motley Fool transcript).
- Sympathy peers (whiggity consult): whiggity named ACN/ORCL. IBM–ORCL ρ 0.15: not supported. ACN is not in TRAI's universe (unverified). TRAI's actual co-movers are NOW 0.58, CRM 0.54, ADBE 0.53 (consult).
- 2026-10-21 AMC, Q3: revenue $17.1B (+5%, +6% cc). Software $7.8B (+8%, +9% cc): Red Hat +11%, Data +19%, TP +9%, Automation −3%. Consulting flat. Infrastructure +4% (Z −20%, Distributed +31%). FY cc revenue growth held at 4–5%. FCF growth raised to more than $1B y/y (IBM release). Software outlook raised to ~7–8% from 6–8%. Adj. EPS $2.95 vs $2.86 est.; revenue $17.10B vs $16.82B est. (Reuters via Investing.com, 2026-10-21).
- 2026-10-22: −6.5% premarket. BofA: about $250M of software growth came from deals slipped from Q2. The CEO expects TP to normalize next year. At least 8 brokers raised PTs (Reuters via Investing.com, 2026-10-22). Gapped −4.06%, rallied +4.50% open→close, closed +0.26% (TRAI /api/events). Long-momentum candidate on Oct 23.
- Next earnings: unknown. TRAI calendar has next = null (S-008).
TRAI data (2026-10-23 8:53 AM ET premarket run; daily stats = Oct 22 session)
- Sector (TRAI): Hardware. Oct 22: +0.26%, relVol 2.11, ATR 2.79%, beta60 0.99, residual z 0.81, indicated gap -1.38%, signals: long_momentum (TRAI /api/latest).
- Next earnings: none on file (next = null) (TRAI /api/events, asOf 2026-10-23).
- Typical earnings reaction (last 4): avg |gap| 5.35% (1.91 ATR), max |gap| 8.06%, gap fill rate 50%, continuation 25%, avg day-1 move in gap direction -2.17% (TRAI /api/events).
- Recent events: 2026-01-28 AMC: gap +8.06%, day-1 -2.71%, close-close +5.13%, EPS surprise 5.3%; 2026-04-22 AMC: gap -7.78%, day-1 -0.51%, close-close -8.25%, EPS surprise 5.45%; 2026-07-22 AMC: gap -1.52%, day-1 +1.98%, close-close +0.43%, EPS surprise -0.1%; 2026-10-21 AMC: gap -4.06%, day-1 +4.50%, close-close +0.26%, EPS surprise 2.71% (TRAI /api/events).
- Correlation cluster 33 (avg ρ n/a (singleton), 60d): IBM (TRAI /api/correlations, asOf 2026-10-22).
- Highest 60d correlations: NOW 0.58, CRM 0.54, ADBE 0.53, INTU 0.49, ZS 0.46 (TRAI /api/correlations).