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INTC — Intel

_Last updated 2026-10-30 09:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

Business

x86 CPUs, foundry (Intel Foundry), networking/edge — Intel IR.

Catalysts, guidance & news

2026-10-29 16:00 update

  • Q3 2026 (10-29 AMC): revenue $16.5B (+21%), non-GAAP EPS $0.52 (consensus ~$0.40–0.41), GM 44.1%. DCAI $7.3B (+78%), client $8.1B (−5%), Foundry op loss −$1.85B. Q4 guide: revenue $15.0–16.0B (vs ~$17.1B consensus), GM 38.0%, EPS $0.25. CFO sees a PC slowdown through at least 1H27; $23B equity offering completed (Intel IR, 2026-10-29; MarketWatch).
  • After hours ~4:12 PM: −18.1% (Yahoo). The regular session was −3.6% on Musk Terafab/TSMC talks (StreetInsider). Cluster-1 gap risk Fri 10-30: MU 0.71, MRVL 0.68, SMCI 0.65, ETN 0.60, STX 0.58, ORCL 0.52, VRT 0.50 (TRAI 60d ρ).
  • 10-27: Intel–Oracle OCI Xeon collaboration announced (Intel press list).
  • −8.04% Oct 22 (TRAI); +1.1% premarket Oct 23 (TipRanks, 2026-10-23).
  • Next earnings 2026-10-29 AMC — gap risk `elevated`; last-4 avg |gap| 10.46% (TRAI /api/events). In TRAI's fade-long bucket today.

TRAI data (2026-10-23 8:53 AM ET premarket run; daily stats = Oct 22 session)

  • Sector (TRAI): Semis. Oct 22: -8.04%, relVol 1.35, ATR 6.45%, beta60 3.48, indicated gap +0.28%, signals: mean_reversion_fade_long (TRAI /api/latest).
  • Next earnings: 2026-10-29 AMC, gap risk elevated (TRAI /api/events, asOf 2026-10-23).
  • Typical earnings reaction (last 4): avg |gap| 10.46% (1.99 ATR), max |gap| 23.09%, gap fill rate 50%, continuation 50%, avg day-1 move in gap direction -2.03% (TRAI /api/events).
  • Recent events: 2025-10-23 AMC: gap +4.87%, day-1 -4.35%, close-close +0.31%, EPS surprise 3162.41%; 2026-01-22 AMC: gap -13.73%, day-1 -3.82%, close-close -17.03%, EPS surprise 81.51%; 2026-04-23 AMC: gap +23.09%, day-1 +0.41%, close-close +23.60%, EPS surprise 2108.68%; 2026-07-23 AMC: gap +0.13%, day-1 -8.01%, close-close -7.89%, EPS surprise 94.59% (TRAI /api/events).
  • Correlation cluster 1 (avg ρ 0.588, 60d): ON, MCHP, TXN, ADI, CAT, ANET, VRT, GEV, ETN, AVGO, MU, TSM, ASML, KLAC, AMAT, LRCX, MRVL, ARM, AMD, INTC, NVDA, ORCL, SMCI, DELL (TRAI /api/correlations, asOf 2026-10-22).
  • Highest 60d correlations: AMD 0.80, TSM 0.77, ARM 0.77, LRCX 0.75, MU 0.71 (TRAI /api/correlations).

2026-10-30 09:00 update

  • Q4 guide $15–16B vs ~$17.07B; CEO sees PC shipments −12% in 2026 and −10% in 2027 on memory shortages (TipRanks, 2026-10-30). Premarket −26.0% (09:19). Read-through: AMD −9.65%, ARM −10.0%, QCOM −5.9%, MU −6.6%, WDC −8.0%, STX −7.5%, DELL −12.0%, HPQ −13.9% (Yahoo ~09:17).

Report links

2026-10-29 17:00 update

  • 17:00 follow-up: Reuters says the Kiryat Gat fab explosion costs ~$600M of revenue over two quarters (Q4 −$300M, ~200bp GM); Q4 PC revenue expected down mid-20s%; Q4 EPS guide $0.25 vs $0.43 (Reuters via StreetInsider). After hours −16.72% at 17:02.