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LLY: Eli Lilly
_Last updated 2026-10-30 10:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._
Business
Pharma. Main franchise is GLP-1/incretins: Mounjaro (diabetes) and Zepbound (obesity), both tirzepatide. TRAI sector: Healthcare, cluster 3 (GILD, BMY, LLY, JNJ, ABBV, VRTX, PFE, AMGN; avg ρ 0.567). LLY–GILD 0.44, LLY–NVO 0.37, LLY–REGN 0.35 (TRAI /api/correlations, 60d to 2026-10-22).
Catalysts, guidance & news
- Q3 2026 (10-29 BMO): revenue $24.4B (+39%) vs ~$22.5B; non-GAAP EPS $7.48 (~33% above consensus). FY26 revenue guide raised to $91–92B (from $85–87B), the third raise this year. Mounjaro $10.7B (+65%), Zepbound $5.35B (+49%). Per the CFO, 7 of 10 US injectable obesity/diabetes scripts in the quarter were Lilly's (Investing.com, 2026-10-30; Lilly IR).
- PT raises: BofA $1,497, UBS $1,625, Truist $1,612 (same Investing.com piece). Rival Novo's print disappointed (CagriSema vs tirzepatide head-to-head; Wegovy pill below estimates).
TRAI data
- Last 4 prints (TRAI /api/events): avg |gap| 5.35%, fill rate 0%, continuation 75%, avg day-1 in gap direction +2.42%. The 10-29 print is recorded (BMO, same-day reaction).
- 10-30 ~10:13 ET: +4.09% (opened +4.01%; OR30 +3.18…+5.53%) (Yahoo). Not a bucket candidate.
Linkages
- Cluster-3 strength today bears on the GILD fade-short (S-077).
Report links
2026-11-06 15:00 update — cluster-5 flat after Thu crush
- Thu −3.76%; Fri ~15:09 ~1363.89 / ~−0.06% (flat). SM Healthcare ×5 residual (suspended). Cluster 5; LLY–NVO 0.51, MRNA–LLY 0.38.
- Thu crush: secondary valuation/profit-taking narrative (TradingKey 11-05) [S]; no verified Thu company 8-K. Feeds S-149.
- Source: 2026-11-06 15:00 healthcare split.