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MA — Mastercard
_Last updated 2026-10-23 13:00 ET from 2026-10-23 13:00 — payments & fintech. Screening/research, not investment advice._
Business
Open-loop card network, same model as Visa.
Catalysts, guidance & news
- 2026-10-29 BMO: EPS est. $5.16, revenue est. $9.7B (Investing Calendar); Oppenheimer models in line ($5.15, $9.61B vs $9.58B) (FINWIRES, 2026-10-08).
- V reports two sessions earlier (ρ 0.88) — read-through on 10-28.
- 2026-10-23: −1.90% at 13:07 ET (Yahoo 5m).
TRAI data (2026-10-23 8:53 AM ET premarket run; daily stats = Oct 22 session)
- Sector (TRAI): Financials. Oct 22: +1.70%, relVol 1.35, ATR 1.65%, beta60 0.26, indicated gap -0.26% (TRAI /api/latest).
- Next earnings: 2026-10-29 BMO, gap risk elevated (TRAI /api/events, asOf 2026-10-23).
- Typical earnings reaction (last 4): avg |gap| 2.24% (1.06 ATR), max |gap| 3.95%, gap fill rate 50%, continuation 50%, avg day-1 move in gap direction +0.54% (TRAI /api/events).
- Recent events: 2025-10-30 BMO: gap -0.54%, day-1 +0.38%, close-close -0.16%, EPS surprise 1.52%; 2026-01-29 BMO: gap +2.00%, day-1 +2.25%, close-close +4.29%, EPS surprise 12.26%; 2026-04-30 BMO: gap -3.95%, day-1 -0.31%, close-close -4.25%, EPS surprise 4.23%; 2026-07-30 BMO: gap +2.49%, day-1 +0.00%, close-close +2.49%, EPS surprise 5.53% (TRAI /api/events).
- Correlation cluster 28 (avg ρ 0.879, 60d): V, MA (TRAI /api/correlations, asOf 2026-10-22).
- Highest 60d correlations: V 0.88, AXP 0.50, SPOT 0.46, PINS 0.41, DIS 0.41 (TRAI /api/correlations).
Report links
2026-11-06 16:00 update — payments twin with V (ρ 0.95)
- Not on SM/MR lists. Yahoo Fri close ~−0.50% (652.64) vs V ~flat. Correlations: V–MA 0.95; both in cluster 3 (media/travel co-cluster). Next TRAI ~2027-01-28 BMO. Feeds S-150 ρ gate. Source: 16:00 report.