TRAI — Research — MDLZ: Mondelēz International

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_Last updated 2026-11-06 13:00 ET from report. Prior body retained; see 13:00 update below._ Screening/research, not investment advice._

Global snacks (Oreo, Cadbury, Milka); cocoa is a key input cost. TRAI sector: Consumer Staples; cluster 4.

Next earnings: Thu 2026-10-29 AMC (4:05 PM ET), call 5:00 PM ET; reaction Fri 10-30 (MDLZ via GlobeNewswire, 2026-10-15). The reaction day is shared with CL (BMO, out of universe).
Cocoa phasing (Q2 call, 2026-07-28): the CFO said cocoa phasing continues into Q3 and "will reverse out in Q4", with EBIT up in both quarters, more in Q4 (transcript via TickerTrends; secondary). whiggity's "peak cocoa COGS in Q3/Q4" holds for Q3 but not for Q4 (consult, open questions).

Fails liquidity (ADV $467M < $500M), so peer-risk only. Oct 22 +3.91% (z 2.46); 10-23 −2.13%.
Last 4 prints: avg |gap| 2.09% (0.97 ATR), continuation 75% (/api/events).
Top 60d ρ: PEP 0.68, PG 0.64, KO 0.63, KHC 0.63 (/api/correlations). On KO print days, MDLZ |move| was 1.37% vs 1.00% baseline (Yahoo, my calc).

Premarket +7.08% (09:18): adj. EPS $0.78 beat, organic +2.1%, gross margin +380bp, FY guide reaffirmed (Investing.com, 2026-10-30). Peers HSY +2.0%, KHC +2.1%, GIS +2.7% — a staples-wide bid, not MDLZ-specific.

Q3 2026 (10-29, 4:05 PM): revenue $9.967B (+2.3%), organic +2.1%, adj. EPS $0.78 (+5.5% cc); FY26 reaffirmed (organic ≥2%, EPS flat to +5% cc, FCF ~$3B); acquiring Undercover Snacks (GlobeNewswire). After hours +3.15%. It still fails TRAI liquidity, so it matters only as peer risk for MO (ρ 0.60).

On Fri 8:58 SM Consumer Staples ×4 with residZ −2.16 (Thu −0.83%); still cluster 4 food/HPC, not PM's cluster 19.
Fri midday Yahoo ~−0.41% — mild vs PM/MO tobacco soft. Liquidity ADV fail still applies for live sizing.
Source: 2026-11-06 13:00 staples PM residual crush.