MPC — Marathon Petroleum

_Created 2026-11-02 15:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

Business

Largest US refiner by volume: refining & marketing (gasoline, diesel, jet) plus midstream via its stake in MPLX (MPC IR; Investing.com, 2026-11-02).

What moves it short-horizon

• Crack spreads and margin capture, throughput/turnarounds, crude differentials (Canadian heavy, Venezuelan, SPR barrels), buybacks, and the geopolitical "conflict premium" in product markets. Trades as one position with PSX (ρ 0.91).

Catalysts, guidance & news

2026-11-02 15:00 update

• Q3 2026: Tue 11-03 BMO, call 11:00 AM ET (MPC IR).
• Consensus EPS $25.37–25.74 (whisper $26.79); revenue consensus $46.6–46.7B (TipRanks/MarketBeat/Investing.com). This is quarterly and on the reported "total revenues and other income" basis (Q2 $52.34B; Investing.com: −11% sequential). Earnings Whispers' $33.56B looks stale. Resolved in the report's §9 after the whiggity consult (TipRanks; Finviz/Earnings Whispers).
• Q2 (10-Q): diluted EPS $17.73 for the quarter (six months $19.30), total revenues and other income $52.337B; MPLX is consolidated (SEC 10-Q). Q2 EPS vs ~$14.27 consensus (Investing.com says $12.94); margin $36.33/bbl vs $17.58 a year earlier; R&M EBITDA $24.84/bbl, capture 112%. Management: Q3 is seasonally weakest; product margins and jet-diesel had pulled back a month into the quarter; margins could take >6 months to normalize even if conflicts end (Investing.com and Finviz, above). EPS estimates +29% in 60 days. Jefferies Hold (diesel demand destruction).
• 11-02: −2.2% at 15:10 ET with WTI −7.3% on US–Iran diplomacy.

TRAI data (asOf 2026-11-02)

• Last 4 reactions (/api/events): 2025-11-04 gap −8.52% (EPS miss, c/c −6.13%); 2026-02-03 +2.14%; 2026-05-05 +1.37%; 2026-08-04 +0.59%. Avg |gap| 3.16%, median 1.76%, continuation 75%.
• 60d ρ: PSX 0.91, CVX 0.54, OXY 0.51, COP 0.51, XOM 0.50. Energy cluster 2.

Report links

• 2026-11-02 15:00 report §5

2026-11-02 17:00 update

• AH +0.30% (16:57 ET) ahead of Tue BMO. [CALC] On 8 MPC/PSX reaction days, XOM/CVX/OXY gaps ran −2.2% to +1.3% with poor sign agreement; MPC's link to the 11-02 energy MR fade-longs (ρ 0.50–0.54) is weak in practice. PSX moved from LM (stale run) to the suspended SM bucket in the 16:49 post-close run.
• Report

2026-11-03 09:00 update

• Q3 (BMO): adj EPS $26.93 beat; $4.2B refinery-asset sale (search summary only, primary not opened) [UNV]. Yahoo pre-market −2.2% (09:02) vs a summary claiming +2%: unresolved. Integrateds moved with crude (−1.0% to −1.3%).
• Report