MRNA — Moderna

_Last updated 2026-11-06 09:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

Business

mRNA therapeutics / vaccines company; TRAI Healthcare universe; correlates with MRK in cluster 25.

Catalysts, guidance & news

• Q3 2026 results released BMO Fri 2026-11-06; call 8:00 AM ET. See 09:00 update below for issuer figures.
• Path into print (Yahoo daily): 11-03 C 228.44 → 11-04 C 258.38 (+13.1%) → 11-05 last 241.46 (−6.55% vs 11-04) — spike then giveback into own BMO (16:00 report).

TRAI data

• Next earnings: 2026-11-06 BMO, gapRisk imminent.
• Typical reaction (last 4): avg |gap| 3.28% (0.47 ATR), fill 50%, continuation 50%, avg day-1 in gap dir ≈ 0.
• Not in current LM/SM/MR buckets on the 11-04 snapshot.

Report links

• 2026-11-05 16:00 — close wrap

2026-11-06 09:00 update — BMO beat and FY raise

• Primary [V-P]: Moderna Q3 2026 via Newswire. Revenue $1,313M (+29% YoY); US $780M / intl $533M; net product sales $1,273M; NI $162M; diluted EPS $0.38 (vs loss $0.51).
• Raises 2026 revenue growth to 15%–25% from "up to 10%"; R&D ~$2.7B (was ~$2.9B); YE cash/investments $8.1–$8.3B (was $4.7–$5.2B) incl. ~$2.6B net convertible proceeds.
• mFLUSIVA FDA approval (5th product); intismeran Phase 3 HR 0.58 recurrence/death with Merck; norovirus Phase 3 interim missed early-success criteria.
• Call was 8:00 AM ET Nov 6.
• Secondary surge claims disagree (~3% CNBC vs ~8.5–10% Investing.com) [S-1]; TRAI 8:58 indicatedGapPct −1.85% not synchronized — live % UNKNOWN beyond those sources.
• Cluster 20 (correlations asOf Nov 5); not automatic read-through to SM residuals REGN/PFE/LLY/GILD/VRTX (issuer growth primarily intl COVID — PFE clearest overlap hypothesis).
• Source: 2026-11-06 09:00 Fri open report.

2026-11-06 15:00 update — afternoon ~+10% overrun vs cluster-5

• Yahoo ~15:09 ET: ~265.54 / ~+9.97% vs Thu 241.46 — overruns TRAI hist avg |gap| 3.28% (~3×).
• Re-verified primary still Newswire Q3 2026 [V-P]; IR hub quarterly-results 200; secondary 8-K mirror accepted 06:47 AM EST (StockTitan); Q3 news-details deep link 404 from this box.
• Whiggity fold (MRNA leg only): YE cash raise includes convert ~$2.6B net (not pure ops); GSK patent cross-license settle "no payments" (agreement 2026-10-28) now cited from same Newswire; BMO vs 06:47 acceptance timing nuance logged.
• Framing: S-006 do not fade huge positive overrun same-day; S-141 no SM reactivation; S-149 — MRNA cluster 20 ≠ automatic read-through to cluster-5 / Healthcare ×5 residuals (MRNA–PFE ρ 0.45, MRNA–LLY 0.38). Actionable Fri NO.
• Source: 2026-11-06 15:00 healthcare split §4, §7.