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MSFT — Microsoft

_Last updated 2026-10-30 09:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

Business

Productivity & business processes (M365, LinkedIn, Dynamics), Intelligent Cloud (Azure, server products), More Personal Computing (Windows, Xbox, search) (Microsoft IR).

What moves it short-horizon

  • Azure growth vs its constant-currency guide (the stock has fallen on an above-guide Azure print when buy-side wanted more), capex/leases and FCF, Microsoft Cloud margin; gaming rarely moves it (Tradingpedia, 2026-10-23).

Catalysts, guidance & news

2026-10-29 16:00 update

  • Sept-quarter print (10-28 AMC): capex plus finance leases $45.2B (+30%), below the $50.67B estimate; FCF −27% to $18.63B. 10-29: −0.16% (CNBC, 2026-10-29).
  • FY27 Q1: Wed 2026-10-28 AMC, webcast 2:30 PM PT / 5:30 PM ET (Microsoft, 2026-10-07). Same night as GOOGL; FOMC 2 PM that day.
  • Guide: Azure +45% cc, revenue $89.85–90.95B, capex ~$50B for the quarter; EPS est. ~$4.70; last quarter FCF −23% y/y (Tradingpedia, above). EarningsMoves consensus $4.71 (EarningsMoves).
  • FY26 Q4 (2026-07-29 AMC): revenue $90B (+18%), Microsoft Cloud $59.3B (+27%), Azure +43%; CY26 capex expectation ~$175B (from $190B) purely from a lease/useful-life accounting change (15 → 25 years), underlying plans "unchanged" (CFO Amy Hood); stock +15.5% next day (CFO Dive, 2026-07-30).
  • January 2026: Azure 38% (above guide) yet stock ~−10% (Tradingpedia, above; TRAI 2026-01-29 c-c −9.99%).
  • 2026-10-23: +0.63% at 14:05 ET, strongest of the five mega-caps (Yahoo 5m).

TRAI data (2026-10-23 8:53 AM ET premarket run; daily stats = Oct 22 session)

  • Sector (TRAI): Software. Oct 22: -2.23%, relVol 1, ATR 2.18%, beta60 2.13, indicated gap -0.49%, signals: none (TRAI /api/latest).
  • Next earnings: 2026-10-28 AMC, tradingDaysUntil 3, sessionsToReaction 4, gap risk elevated (TRAI /api/events, asOf 2026-10-23).
  • Typical earnings reaction (last 4): avg |gap| 6.51% (2.62 ATR), max |gap| 12.13%, gap fill rate 0%, continuation 100%, avg day-1 move in gap direction +1.53% (TRAI /api/events).
  • Recent events: 2025-10-29 AMC: gap -2.04%, day-1 -0.89%, close-close -2.92%, EPS surprise 12.73%; 2026-01-28 AMC: gap -8.65%, day-1 -1.48%, close-close -9.99%, EPS surprise 5.69%; 2026-04-29 AMC: gap -3.22%, day-1 -0.74%, close-close -3.93%, EPS surprise 4.85%; 2026-07-29 AMC: gap +12.13%, day-1 +3.01%, close-close +15.51%, EPS surprise 11.81% (TRAI /api/events).
  • Options: IV30 33.1%, RV20 23.3%; implied earnings move ±5.45% (expiry 2026-10-30, 0.84× hist avg |gap|) (TRAI /api/options, asOf 2026-10-22).
  • Correlation cluster 36 (avg ρ None, 60d): MSFT (TRAI /api/correlations, asOf 2026-10-22).
  • Highest 60d correlations: AMZN 0.50, ORCL 0.49, SOFI 0.48, SNOW 0.47, RIOT 0.44; most negative: MO -0.56, MDLZ -0.39, PM -0.34 (TRAI /api/correlations).

Linkages

  • Trades with the AI-infra complex (ORCL 0.49, TSM 0.42, LRCX 0.42, AVGO 0.34) more than with internet names (META −0.02). Its 2026-07-30 print lifted ORCL +8.34% and SMH +6.88% (Yahoo daily, my calc; report §4.2).

2026-10-30 09:00 update

  • Premarket −0.50% (09:16) despite INTC's PC-shipment cut (Windows OEM exposure) — Dow-member resilience; see whiggity test idea 2 in the report §11.

Report links