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NOW: ServiceNow

_Last updated 2026-10-29 16:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

Business

Enterprise workflow platform (IT, CRM, security, employee service), marketed as an AI 'control tower' for agents (ServiceNow IR, 2026-10-07).

Catalysts, guidance & news

2026-10-29 16:00 update

  • Q3 2026 (10-28 AMC): subscription revenue $3,988M (+21%), cRPO $13.65B (+20.5%), adj. EPS $1.00 vs $1.02. Q4 cRPO guide +18.5% (vs ~19% expected), subscription revenue $4,245–4,255M, FY FCF margin 36% (ServiceNow, 2026-10-28; Bloomberg).
  • 10-29: −26.97%, worst day ever (gap −19.47%, then another −9.3% open→close), with at least 12 PT cuts (CNBC, 2026-10-29). FTNT also fell >20% (Reuters via StreetInsider).
  • TRAI data gap: /api/events never recorded the 10-28 AMC print (history ends 07-22; next = 2027-01-27 estimate). See S-068/S-061.
  • Replay: earlier NOW post-earnings shorts lost (04-23 signal −5.12%, 07-23 −4.07%). Software after a ≤−15% day: next open→close +0.28% (n 46), so no edge for a day-3 short (report §6.3).
  • Sympathy peers (whiggity consult, checked vs TRAI /api/correlations 60d to 2026-10-22): TEAM 0.71 (supported, cluster 6). MSFT 0.12: not supported as a co-mover; the link is only the shared Oct 28 AMC evening. Q3 EPS: Public.com shows $0.93, unverified as consensus because Public's past estimates sit 11–17% below the Yahoo consensus TRAI stores (consult).
  • Next: Q3 2026 results Wed 2026-10-28 after the close, call 2 PM PT (ServiceNow IR, 2026-10-07). Same evening as MSFT/GOOGL AMC and the FOMC decision.
  • Guidance set 2026-07-22: Q3 subscription revenue $3,975–3,980M (+20.5%), cRPO +19.5%, non-GAAP op margin 31%. FY26 subscription $15,760–15,780M (+22.5%), FCF margin 35%. Q2: subscription $3,877M (+24.5%), RPO $29.0B, AI above $1B ACV. Some federal on-prem revenue was pulled into Q2 from Q3 (Q2 release).
  • 2026-10-23: Guggenheim PT $125 → $175 (Buy). Field checks "underwrite stability"; sees "de-risked Q3 guidance" and expects upside to Q3 consensus (TheFly via TipRanks).
  • 2026-10-22: +2.53% to $157.00 in the software rotation. Long-momentum candidate (report). Q3 consensus: unknown.

TRAI data (2026-10-23 8:53 AM ET premarket run; daily stats = Oct 22 session)

  • Sector (TRAI): Software. Oct 22: +2.53%, relVol 1.62, ATR 3.86%, beta60 0.84, residual z 1.11, indicated gap -0.64%, signals: long_momentum (TRAI /api/latest).
  • Next earnings: 2026-10-28 AMC, gap risk elevated (TRAI /api/events, asOf 2026-10-23).
  • Typical earnings reaction (last 4): avg |gap| 7.58% (1.62 ATR), max |gap| 15.35%, gap fill rate 50%, continuation 75%, avg day-1 move in gap direction -0.71% (TRAI /api/events).
  • Recent events: 2025-10-29 AMC: gap +1.65%, day-1 +0.86%, close-close +2.52%, EPS surprise 13%; 2026-01-28 AMC: gap -8.56%, day-1 -1.52%, close-close -9.94%, EPS surprise 3.95%; 2026-04-22 AMC: gap -15.35%, day-1 -2.83%, close-close -17.75%, EPS surprise 0.36%; 2026-07-22 AMC: gap +4.77%, day-1 -8.07%, close-close -3.69%, EPS surprise 5.05% (TRAI /api/events).
  • Correlation cluster 6 (avg ρ 0.626, 60d): WDAY, ADBE, INTU, TEAM, CRM, NOW (TRAI /api/correlations, asOf 2026-10-22).
  • Highest 60d correlations: ADBE 0.78, CRM 0.75, TEAM 0.71, INTU 0.67, IBM 0.58 (TRAI /api/correlations).

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