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PEP: PepsiCo
_Last updated 2026-10-30 09:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._
Business
Snacks (Frito-Lay, Quaker) and beverages. More input-cost exposure than KO. TRAI sector: Consumer Staples; cluster 4.
Catalysts, guidance & news
- Q3 (2026-10-08 BMO): net revenue $25.27B (+5.6%), organic +3.1%; core EPS growth guide cut to 2.5–3.5% from the low end of 5–7% (core constant-currency 1–2%, was the low end of 4–6%) on North America margin pressure (PEP Q3 8-K Ex. 99.1; prepared remarks, 2026-10-08; PDFs opened 10-23).
- Driver was margin, not volume: PFNA core margin −280 bp (affordability investments, lapping an asset-sale gain, A&M), while U.S. salty-snack volume and share grew for a fourth straight quarter. PBNA organic volume declined. $178M of tariff refunds helped Q3. NA margin is to stay pressured in Q4. This contradicts whiggity's "Frito-Lay volume" framing (consult item 8).
- Reaction: gap +0.47%, day-1 +3.24% (/api/events). The only cluster-4 name down YTD (−5.4% to 10-23).
- Next print: not scheduled (TRAI); historically early February.
TRAI data
- Oct 22 +3.07% (z 2.35) → mean_reversion fade-short for 10-23; result −2.20% c-c, o→c −1.62% (Yahoo).
- Last 4 prints: avg |gap| 1.41% (0.61 ATR), continuation 75%, avg day-1 in gap direction +2.12% (/api/events).
- Top 60d ρ: MDLZ 0.68, KO 0.66, PG 0.58, PM 0.57 (/api/correlations). Replay MR on PEP: n 4, +0.72%.
Linkages
- KO print (Tue 10-27): PEP same-sign 68%, ρ 0.44, but no bigger-than-normal move (0.97% vs 0.94%). MDLZ print (Thu 10-29 AMC): ρ 0.68 (60d).
2026-10-30 09:00 update
- Premarket ~+2.5% with the defensive staples rotation (TRAI 8:53).