TRAI — Research — PYPL

← Research · knowledge/companies/PYPL.md

_Last updated 2026-10-30 09:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

Digital wallet (PayPal, Venmo) and merchant processing (Braintree); revenue = payment volume × take rate.

2026-10-27 BMO: EPS est. $1.31, revenue est. $8.7B (Investing Calendar); Oppenheimer expects revenue below consensus ($8.68B vs $8.72B) on a lower take rate (FINWIRES, 2026-10-08).
Largest historical earnings gaps in the payments group (0/4 filled).

Sector (TRAI): Financials. Oct 22: +0.59%, relVol 0.68, ATR 1.99%, beta60 0.87, indicated gap -1.07% (TRAI /api/latest).
Next earnings: 2026-10-27 BMO, gap risk elevated (TRAI /api/events, asOf 2026-10-23).
Typical earnings reaction (last 4): avg |gap| 9.43% (3.42 ATR), max |gap| 18.05%, gap fill rate 0%, continuation 50%, avg day-1 move in gap direction -0.29% (TRAI /api/events).
Recent events: 2025-10-28 BMO: gap +8.48%, day-1 -4.19%, close-close +3.94%, EPS surprise 11.14%; 2026-02-03 BMO: gap -18.05%, day-1 -2.76%, close-close -20.31%, EPS surprise -4.4%; 2026-05-05 BMO: gap -9.96%, day-1 +2.47%, close-close -7.74%, EPS surprise 5.59%; 2026-07-28 BMO: gap +1.23%, day-1 +2.75%, close-close +4.01%, EPS surprise 8.03% (TRAI /api/events).
Correlation cluster 47 (avg ρ n/a, 60d): PYPL (TRAI /api/correlations, asOf 2026-10-22).
Highest 60d correlations: SOFI 0.38, HOOD 0.32, V 0.30, COF 0.30, GILD 0.29 (TRAI /api/correlations).

Premarket +0.49% (09:15) — not trading with crypto on the Binance theft (XYZ/Block −0.86%).

On the 11-02 post-close MR fade-short list (+3.10%; Financials cluster with COF/AXP/WFC). Fiserv (FISV) reports Tue 11-03 BMO, call 8:00 AM ET (GlobeNewswire, 2026-10-05). [CALC] PYPL–FISV 60d ρ 0.29; on 7 FISV gaps ≥ 5% (2y), PYPL matched sign 2/7, median ratio 0.07. The −9.96% PYPL gap on 2026-05-05 looks like PYPL's own print day [UNV].
Report