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TGT: Target

_Last updated 2026-10-23 16:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

Business

General-merchandise retailer (TRAI sector label: Consumer Staples).

Catalysts, guidance & news

  • Sympathy peers (whiggity consult): TGT–WMT ρ 0.24 (not supported). SHW/TSCO are not in TRAI's universe (consult).
  • 2026-10-22: +3.76% to $158.11 as part of the broad consumer/defensive rally. No TGT-specific catalyst found (Kalkine, 2026-10-23). Mean-reversion fade-short candidate Oct 23.
  • 2026-10-23: −2.82% at 10:14 ET (Yahoo chart API; report §1).
  • 2026-10-23 close: −3.40% c-c, o→c −2.66%; the 10-23 fade-short worked. Same-day tape: staples led S&P declines, UMich sentiment 48 (report §4).
  • Next earnings: 2026-11-18 BMO (TRAI). Weak link to WMT (ρ 0.24). Top links are NKE and BX 0.50.

TRAI data (2026-10-23 8:53 AM ET premarket run; daily stats = Oct 22 session)

  • Sector (TRAI): Consumer Staples. Oct 22: +3.76%, relVol 1.02, ATR 2.58%, beta60 0.3, residual z 2.46, indicated gap -1.11%, signals: mean_reversion_fade_short (TRAI /api/latest).
  • Next earnings: 2026-11-18 BMO, gap risk None (TRAI /api/events, asOf 2026-10-23).
  • Typical earnings reaction (last 4): avg |gap| 3.37% (1.2 ATR), max |gap| 5.52%, gap fill rate 50%, continuation 50%, avg day-1 move in gap direction -1.21% (TRAI /api/events).
  • Recent events: 2025-11-19 BMO: gap -2.38%, day-1 -0.39%, close-close -2.77%, EPS surprise 4.09%; 2026-03-03 BMO: gap +2.51%, day-1 +4.13%, close-close +6.74%, EPS surprise 12.97%; 2026-05-20 BMO: gap -5.52%, day-1 +1.76%, close-close -3.86%, EPS surprise 17.31%; 2026-08-19 BMO: gap -3.07%, day-1 +7.58%, close-close +4.28%, EPS surprise 75.83% (TRAI /api/events).
  • Correlation cluster 57 (avg ρ n/a (singleton), 60d): TGT (TRAI /api/correlations, asOf 2026-10-22).
  • Highest 60d correlations: NKE 0.50, BX 0.50, PG 0.45, PEP 0.45, GILD 0.45 (TRAI /api/correlations).

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