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V — Visa
_Last updated 2026-11-06 16:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._
Business
Open-loop card network: per-transaction fees on payments volume, cross-border and processing; no credit risk.
Catalysts, guidance & news
- 2026-10-27 AMC, fiscal Q4: EPS est. $3.44, revenue est. $12.1B (Investing Calendar); Oppenheimer models $3.46 / $12.16B (FINWIRES, 2026-10-08).
- 2026-10-23: −1.42% at 13:07 ET in sympathy with AXP's print (Yahoo 5m).
TRAI data (2026-10-23 8:53 AM ET premarket run; daily stats = Oct 22 session)
- Sector (TRAI): Financials. Oct 22: +1.59%, relVol 1.22, ATR 1.79%, beta60 0.25, indicated gap -0.73% (TRAI /api/latest).
- Next earnings: 2026-10-27 AMC, gap risk elevated (TRAI /api/events, asOf 2026-10-23).
- Typical earnings reaction (last 4): avg |gap| 2.94% (1.64 ATR), max |gap| 8.76%, gap fill rate 75%, continuation 25%, avg day-1 move in gap direction -1.38% (TRAI /api/events).
- Recent events: 2025-10-28 AMC: gap -0.26%, day-1 -1.36%, close-close -1.62%, EPS surprise 0.28%; 2026-01-29 AMC: gap +0.13%, day-1 -3.13%, close-close -3.00%, EPS surprise 0.88%; 2026-04-28 AMC: gap +8.76%, day-1 -0.46%, close-close +8.26%, EPS surprise 6.79%; 2026-07-28 AMC: gap -2.62%, day-1 +3.29%, close-close +0.58%, EPS surprise 2.76% (TRAI /api/events).
- Correlation cluster 28 (avg ρ 0.879, 60d): V, MA (TRAI /api/correlations, asOf 2026-10-22).
- Highest 60d correlations: MA 0.88, TTD 0.49, DIS 0.49, AXP 0.49, AFRM 0.49 (TRAI /api/correlations).
Report links
2026-11-06 16:00 update — SM Financials ×3 but cluster-3 payments twin
- On 8:58 SM Financials ×3 with JPM/C (suspended): z1d −2.11, residualZ −1.18. Yahoo Fri close ~+0.03% (422.70); MA twin ~−0.50%.
- Correlations refreshed (asOf 2026-11-05): V–MA ρ 0.95 (top pair); home now cluster 3 with media/travel (not cluster-2 banks). V–JPM only 0.57. Next TRAI ~2027-01-26 AMC.
- Label vs correlation split feeds S-150 payments ρ gate. Source: 16:00 report.