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VRT — Vertiv

_Last updated 2026-10-29 16:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

Business

Data-center power and thermal infrastructure (UPS, switchgear, busway, liquid cooling) (Vertiv IR).

Catalysts, guidance & news

2026-10-29 16:00 update

  • Q3 2026 (10-28 BMO), beat and raise: sales $4,313M (+61%, 55% organic), adj. EPS $2.21 (+78%; consensus ~$1.82), adj. op margin 25.2%, adj. FCF $652M, organic orders >100% y/y. Vertiv will no longer disclose orders. FY26 guide raised: sales $14.45–14.85B, organic 37–39%, adj. EPS $7.10–7.20, adj. FCF $2.6–2.8B. Q4 guide: sales $4.313–4.513B, EPS $2.22–2.28 (Vertiv IR, 2026-10-28; Investing.com).
  • Reaction: 10-28 +16.48% (gap +16.51%, relVol 3.33, residual z 5.37). 10-29 opened −2.05%, closed +1.24% (open→close +3.36%). After hours ~4:12 PM: −3.9% in sympathy with INTC (ρ 0.50) and AMZN (Yahoo). Peer read-through Fri: NVT reports BMO 10-30. PWR beat and raised on 10-29 (+6%); TT reaffirmed below consensus (−4.8%).
  • Base rate (my calc, 17 AI-infra names): the day after a ≥+10% day, next open→close averages −1.00% since 2024 (n 161, t −2.68) (report §6.2).
  • −7.81% Oct 22 (TRAI). Recent big days: Oct 21 +4.22%, Oct 14 −6.09%, Sep 9 −9.61% (stockanalysis.com VRT history, accessed 2026-10-23).
  • Oct 23 12:05 ET: +0.11% after opening −2.04% and a −4.27% low at 9:35 (Yahoo 5m). In short_momentum with clusterFlag Hardware ×2 (with ANET).
  • Next earnings Wed Oct 28 BMO, call 11 AM ET (Vertiv IR, 2026-10-14) — same morning as GEV, FOMC decision day, MSFT/GOOGL after that close.
  • Read-through: Bloom Energy's beat-and-raise sold off −11.5% on cash burn (report §2.3).
  • Replay (my calc): short_momentum n5, mean −0.70%.

TRAI data (2026-10-23 8:53 AM ET premarket run; daily stats = Oct 22 session)

  • Sector (TRAI): Hardware. Oct 22: -7.81%, relVol 1.63, ATR 5.99%, beta60 3.34, residualZ -1.15, indicated gap -0.76%, signals: short_momentum (TRAI /api/latest).
  • Next earnings: 2026-10-28 BMO, gap risk elevated (TRAI /api/events, asOf 2026-10-23).
  • Typical earnings reaction (last 4): avg |gap| 8.08% (1.4 ATR), max |gap| 16.85%, gap fill rate 50%, continuation 75%, avg day-1 move in gap direction +2.47% (TRAI /api/events).
  • Recent events: 2025-10-22 BMO: gap +4.46%, day-1 -6.03%, close-close -1.84%, EPS surprise 25.02%; 2026-02-11 BMO: gap +16.85%, day-1 +6.54%, close-close +24.49%, EPS surprise 4.9%; 2026-04-22 BMO: gap -2.28%, day-1 -0.06%, close-close -2.34%, EPS surprise 15.67%; 2026-07-29 BMO: gap -8.74%, day-1 -9.33%, close-close -17.26%, EPS surprise 6.42% (TRAI /api/events).
  • Correlation cluster 1 (avg ρ 0.588, 60d): ON, MCHP, TXN, ADI, CAT, ANET, VRT, GEV, ETN, AVGO, MU, TSM, ASML, KLAC, AMAT, LRCX, MRVL, ARM, AMD, INTC, NVDA, ORCL, SMCI, DELL (TRAI /api/correlations, asOf 2026-10-22).
  • Highest 60d correlations: ETN 0.81, GEV 0.73, KLAC 0.69, CAT 0.69, ANET 0.67 (TRAI /api/correlations).

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