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ADBE: Adobe

_Last updated 2026-10-30 10:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

Business

Creative and document software (Photoshop, Illustrator, Premiere Pro, Acrobat), sold mainly as Creative Cloud / Document Cloud subscriptions, plus marketing and customer-experience software; generative AI via Firefly (Kalkine, 2026-10-22).

Catalysts, guidance & news

  • Next product event: Adobe MAX, Nov 10–12, 2026 (max.adobe.com). whiggity's claim that a "creative-AI rollout" drove the Oct 22 move is not supported: its source is a pre-open, undated-content page that references a conference that hasn't happened yet (consult).
  • Sympathy peers (whiggity consult, TRAI ρ 60d): WDAY 0.71, CRM 0.67 (supported, cluster 6). ADSK is not in TRAI's universe (unverified; July 2026 precedent of a joint rally per Yahoo/Stocktwits, 2026-08-03).
  • 2026-09-10 AMC, Q3 FY26: revenue $6.76B (+13%), non-GAAP EPS $6.13, ARR $27.50B. Q4 targets: revenue $6.80–6.85B, non-GAAP EPS $6.30–6.35. FY26 raised to $26.576–26.626B revenue and $24.45–24.50 non-GAAP EPS, ending-ARR growth 10.2%. Interim CFO Steve Day. The CEO's quote refers to "Anil" driving "Adobe's next chapter" (leadership transition; details not verified) (8-K Ex. 99.1, SEC EDGAR).
  • 2026-10-15: NVIDIA expanded its collaboration with Adobe to speed AI features in Photoshop and Premiere (24/7 Wall St., 2026-10-22).
  • Oct sell-side: Wells Fargo downgraded to Sell, $225 (Oct 12). HSBC downgraded to Hold, $267 (Oct 13). Goldman Sell, $200 (Oct 2) (StockAnalysis ratings).
  • 2026-10-22: +6.07% to $270.55 on rotation into beaten-down application software, no major company news (Benzinga, 2026-10-22). Became a long-momentum candidate. Oct 23: −1.40% at 10:14 ET while SMH rose (Yahoo chart API; report §1).
  • Factor note: 60d avg ρ to core semis −0.38, so it behaves as an anti-semis hedge (report §4).

TRAI data (2026-10-23 8:53 AM ET premarket run; daily stats = Oct 22 session)

  • Sector (TRAI): Software. Oct 22: +6.07%, relVol 1.64, ATR 3.21%, beta60 0.31, residual z 2.37, indicated gap -0.92%, signals: long_momentum (TRAI /api/latest).
  • Next earnings: 2026-12-09 unknown, gap risk None (TRAI /api/events, asOf 2026-10-23).
  • Typical earnings reaction (last 4): avg |gap| 4.58% (1.11 ATR), max |gap| 7.70%, gap fill rate 50%, continuation 0%, avg day-1 move in gap direction -1.91% (TRAI /api/events).
  • Recent events: 2025-12-10 AMC: gap -0.43%, day-1 +2.57%, close-close +2.13%, EPS surprise 1.9%; 2026-03-12 AMC: gap -7.70%, day-1 +0.13%, close-close -7.58%, EPS surprise 3.18%; 2026-06-11 AMC: gap -7.50%, day-1 +0.80%, close-close -6.76%, EPS surprise 2.5%; 2026-09-10 AMC: gap -2.68%, day-1 +4.15%, close-close +1.37%, EPS surprise 0.71% (TRAI /api/events).
  • Correlation cluster 6 (avg ρ 0.626, 60d): WDAY, ADBE, INTU, TEAM, CRM, NOW (TRAI /api/correlations, asOf 2026-10-22).
  • Highest 60d correlations: INTU 0.79, NOW 0.78, WDAY 0.71, CRM 0.67, NFLX 0.55 (TRAI /api/correlations).

Report links

2026-10-30 10:00 update