CAT — Caterpillar

_Last updated 2026-10-23 12:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

Business

Construction, mining (Resource Industries) and Power & Energy equipment (engines, turbines, gensets, incl. data-center power); 2025 sales $67.6B (CAT IR, 2026-10-15).

Catalysts, guidance & news

• Next earnings Thu Oct 29, release 5:30 a.m. CDT, webcast 7:30 a.m. CDT (CAT IR, above). TRAI gap risk elevated.
• Trefis: −20.8% from Jul 24 to Oct 22; Q2 power-gen sales to users +72% (data centers), Power & Energy +33%, backlog $72B (+92% y/y) with orders out to 2030; ~1.5 GW of capacity returning from Q4 2026; 29.9× P/E; no separate data-center backlog disclosure (Trefis, 2026-10-23).
• −4.89% Oct 22 (TRAI, fade_long). Oct 23 12:05 ET: −1.86% (low −3.24%) — fade not working; Dow −~500 on oil (IBD, 2026-10-23).
• Trades with AI power/semis (cluster 1), not machinery: CAT–DE 0.13, CAT–HON 0.19.
• Replay (my calc): mean_reversion n5, mean −0.39%.

TRAI data (2026-10-23 8:53 AM ET premarket run; daily stats = Oct 22 session)

• Sector (TRAI): Industrials. Oct 22: -4.89%, relVol 1.21, ATR 4.37%, beta60 1.91, residualZ -1.5, indicated gap -0.58%, signals: mean_reversion_fade_long (TRAI /api/latest).
• Next earnings: 2026-10-29 BMO, gap risk elevated (TRAI /api/events, asOf 2026-10-23).
• Typical earnings reaction (last 4): avg |gap| 6.28% (1.96 ATR), max |gap| 11.08%, gap fill rate 25%, continuation 75%, avg day-1 move in gap direction +1.35% (TRAI /api/events).
• Recent events: 2025-10-29 BMO: gap +6.43%, day-1 +4.89%, close-close +11.63%, EPS surprise 9.43%; 2026-01-29 BMO: gap +1.85%, day-1 +1.54%, close-close +3.41%, EPS surprise 9.51%; 2026-04-30 BMO: gap +5.75%, day-1 +3.91%, close-close +9.88%, EPS surprise 19.3%; 2026-08-04 BMO: gap +11.08%, day-1 -4.93%, close-close +5.60%, EPS surprise 31.83% (TRAI /api/events).
• Correlation cluster 1 (avg ρ 0.588, 60d): ON, MCHP, TXN, ADI, CAT, ANET, VRT, GEV, ETN, AVGO, MU, TSM, ASML, KLAC, AMAT, LRCX, MRVL, ARM, AMD, INTC, NVDA, ORCL, SMCI, DELL (TRAI /api/correlations, asOf 2026-10-22).
• Highest 60d correlations: GEV 0.74, ASML 0.74, ETN 0.73, AMAT 0.71, TSM 0.70 (TRAI /api/correlations).

Sector note

• industrials

Report links

• 2026-10-23 12:00 — AI power, industrials, healthcare

2026-11-02 13:00 update

• Q3 (10-29 BMO): adj. EPS $7.20 vs $7.08; record backlog $78.1B (+$6B q/q, below JPM's ~$80B bar); FY revenue growth kept at mid-to-high teens vs ~18% expected (Reuters via StreetInsider, 2026-10-29). Closed −9.25%.
• 10-30 (day 2): −3.81%. MS target 915 → 675, RBC 897 → 722 (MarketBeat, 2026-10-30).
• Today (day 3): −0.04% at 13:10 ET, at VWAP, inside OR30. Short bucket is suspended (watch-list only). ETN ρ 0.67, so ETN's 11-03 print is CAT's read-through. Next print 2027-01-28.
• 2026-11-02 13:00 report

2026-11-06 12:00 update — cluster-1 with electricals, not rails

• Still SM residual (Thu −6.37%) — suspended. Yahoo ~12:10 ET ~+1.2% alongside ETN/VRT; cluster 1 (not UNP rails).
• Post 10-29 print context unchanged (gap −10.8% / 2.97 ATR). Secondary Nov 6 power-vs-tariff framing is theme-only.
• Source: 2026-11-06 12:00 report.