CVX — Chevron

_Last updated 2026-10-30 09:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

Business

Integrated oil & gas, upstream-heavier than XOM: Permian, Tengizchevroil (Kazakhstan), Australian LNG, Venezuela, Gulf of Mexico; downstream refining and chemicals.

Catalysts, guidance & news

• Q3 2026 results: Fri 2026-10-30 BMO; call 11:00 AM ET (Chevron advisory via Business Wire/Yahoo, 2026-10-01; BMO per TRAI /api/events and MarketBeat).
• Q3 consensus $4.86 EPS / $61.33B revenue; Q2 2026 $6.06 vs $5.55; beat 7 of 8 (MarketBeat, accessed 2026-10-23). Other: $4.66 / $56.75B (Hudson Labs, 2026-10-06); $4.32 (ScanX, 2026-10-02). Hudson Labs lists Q2 as $5.60 (different adjustment basis; unresolved).
• FY26 context (Hudson Labs preview, secondary): capex $18–19B (low end), production +7–10%, $3B structural cost cuts achieved early, Venezuela 600–700 kbpd target by 2031, Project Kilby (2.67 GW power, Microsoft PPA, FID late 2026).
• 2026-10-23: +2.88% (o→c +2.20%) on the oil move; no company release found (report §3.1).

TRAI data (2026-10-23 4:34 PM ET postclose run)

• Close $233.21, +2.88%, gap +0.67%, relVol 1.11, ATR 2.14%, beta60 −0.78, residZ 1.85, z1d 2.41; signal mean_reversion fade-short (TRAI /api/latest).
• Next earnings 10-30 BMO, elevated. Last 4: avg |gap| 1.20% (0.63 ATR), fill 50%, continuation 100%, avg day-1 in gap direction +1.25%; close-close +2.74, +3.34, −1.39, +2.35% (TRAI /api/events).
• TRAI replay, CVX mean_reversion: n 7, +0.04% (my calc).

Linkages

• Cluster 2. Top 60d ρ: XOM 0.86, EOG 0.83, OXY 0.81, COP 0.81, DVN 0.78, PSX 0.70, HAL 0.63 (TRAI /api/correlations).
• ρ with WTI 2026 YTD 0.57; beta 0.25. YTD +57.3% (Yahoo, my calc).

2026-10-30 09:00 update

• Q3 2026 (Fri 10-30 BMO): adj. EPS $5.28 vs $4.89, revenue $67.8B; record US refinery throughput 1.09M b/d (Chevron, 2026-10-30). Premarket +1.50% (09:18); call 11:00 ET.

Report links

• 2026-10-23 17:00 — oil majors & gold miners

2026-10-29 17:00 update

• Q3 2026: Fri 10-30 BMO. Consensus EPS $4.87, revenue $61.82B; BofA expects refining margins (+60%) and gas (+38%) to offset oil −7% (TipRanks). After hours +0.68%. TRAI last 4: avg |gap| 1.20%, fill 50%.

• 2026-10-29 17:00 — postclose movers & Friday gap risk
• 2026-10-30 09:00 — premarket rotation, INTC/crypto shocks, BMO prints

2026-10-30 16:00 update

• Close: +1.78% (range position 0.73). Nelson: refining margins "will stay a bit elevated, maybe into next year"; net debt cut nearly $14B since end-2025 (Reuters via Investing.com, 2026-10-30).
• 2026-10-30 16:00: close wrap, regime knife-edge, weekend energy, Monday BMO