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FCX — Freeport-McMoRan

_Last updated 2026-10-23 12:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

Business

Copper miner (Grasberg in Indonesia is the largest asset), plus gold and molybdenum (FCX IR).

Catalysts, guidance & news

  • Next earnings Tue Oct 27 BMO, call 10 AM ET (FCX operational update, 2026-10-02). TRAI gap risk elevated. Consensus EPS $0.804 / revenue $7.36B (MarketBeat, 2026-10-20).
  • Grasberg phased restart (per search summary of the Oct 2 release; verify): Q3 ~140k t/d (~67% of pre-incident), ~80% targeted mid-2027, full capacity end-2027.
  • −6.26% Oct 22 with copper −~2.7% and Southern Copper −7% (Business Recorder, 2026-10-22). Oct 23 12:05 ET: +1.43% with copper futures +1.95% — fade_long working (Yahoo 5m).
  • Replay (my calc): mean_reversion n4, mean +0.99%.

TRAI data (2026-10-23 8:53 AM ET premarket run; daily stats = Oct 22 session)

  • Sector (TRAI): Materials/Utilities. Oct 22: -6.26%, relVol 1.25, ATR 3.95%, beta60 1.71, residualZ -1.79, indicated gap -0.14%, signals: mean_reversion_fade_long (TRAI /api/latest).
  • Next earnings: 2026-10-27 BMO, gap risk elevated (TRAI /api/events, asOf 2026-10-23).
  • Typical earnings reaction (last 4): avg |gap| 4.28% (1.19 ATR), max |gap| 11.50%, gap fill rate 50%, continuation 25%, avg day-1 move in gap direction -0.95% (TRAI /api/events).
  • Recent events: 2025-10-23 BMO: gap +1.64%, day-1 -0.53%, close-close +1.10%, EPS surprise 22.84%; 2026-01-22 BMO: gap +0.33%, day-1 -3.18%, close-close -2.86%, EPS surprise 46.66%; 2026-04-23 BMO: gap -11.50%, day-1 -1.27%, close-close -12.62%, EPS surprise 21.95%; 2026-07-23 BMO: gap -3.63%, day-1 +1.37%, close-close -2.31%, EPS surprise 18.7% (TRAI /api/events).
  • Correlation cluster 16 (avg ρ 0.645, 60d): FCX, NEM (TRAI /api/correlations, asOf 2026-10-22).
  • Highest 60d correlations: NEM 0.64, TSM 0.57, LRCX 0.55, HIMS 0.54, ASML 0.54 (TRAI /api/correlations).

Sector note

  • industrials · gold miners (cluster 16 with NEM, ρ 0.64; NEM reported 10-22 AMC and fell −4.59% on 10-23; FCX +0.91%)

2026-10-30 13:00 update

  • Q3 (10-27 BMO): adj. EPS $0.88 vs $0.80, revenue $7.55B vs $7.36B (Investing.com); copper sales 749M lb (−23% y/y, Grasberg block cave ramp), unit net cash cost $2.07/lb vs $1.40; 2026/2027 copper sales guide cut to 3.0B/3.7B lb from 3.1B/3.8B; 2028 4.1B unchanged (ad-hoc-news/Northern Miner, 2026-10-30; Markets Daily from 8-K).
  • 10-30: −5.37% at ~13:11 ET (inside OR30), copper −1.8% (COMEX $6.48), COPX −5.24%. ADM: the AI equity sell-off is weighing on copper; US warehouse stocks ~726k t; Yangshan premium near a 13-year high (ADM, 2026-10-30). Trades with cluster 1 too (60d ρ TSM 0.57, LRCX 0.55).
  • Copper sensitivity (FCX Q3 call, 10-27): modeled 2027–28 avg EBITDA > $12B at $5 Cu to $19.5B at $7; each $0.10/lb ≈ $390M EBITDA; gold $100/oz ≈ $105M (Motley Fool transcript, 2026-10-27). Q4 2026: each $0.10/lb ≈ $75M operating cash flow (8-K Ex. 99.1). Peers 10-30: SCCO −6.75%.
  • Source: 2026-10-30 13:00 report §3.

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