TRAI quant day-trading research

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Gold miners (materials)

_Created 2026-10-23 17:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

Universe and linkages

  • In the TRAI universe: NEM only (note). FCX (copper/gold) is its cluster partner (note). AEM, Barrick (trades as B; the old "GOLD" ticker does not return Barrick in Yahoo data), WPM, KGC, GDX and GDXJ are not in the universe.
  • Cluster 16 (avg ρ 0.645, 60d to 10-22): FCX, NEM. NEM's next-highest 60d ρ are risk-on names (RIVN 0.50, GS 0.48, SOFI 0.47, HIMS 0.46, MARA 0.45). Materials intra-sector ρ only 0.13 (TRAI /api/correlations).
  • Gold beta (Yahoo daily 2026 YTD, my calc): ρ with gold futures NEM 0.74, GDX 0.79, AEM 0.77, B 0.73 (last ~60 sessions ~0.84–0.85). Beta to gold: NEM 1.24, AEM 1.32, GDX 1.41. NEM on GDX beta ≈ 0.88.
  • Oil: GDX–WTI ρ −0.22 in 2026 vs +0.04 to +0.32 in 2020–2025; NEM–SPY ρ 0.47 in 2026 (0.17–0.32 before). In the 2026 oil-shock regime, oil up → rate-hike odds up → gold down, and miners' costs rise.

Cost link to oil (primary)

  • Newmont's 2026 guidance assumes Brent $70 and gold $4,500. Sensitivities: Brent ±$10 → $60M direct + $50M indirect (consumables; added this quarter); gold ±$100 → $505M. Q4E AISC $1,900/oz vs $1,454 in Q3; 2027 unit costs guided higher on diesel, inflation and AUD (Newmont Q3 release, 2026-10-22).

Macro driver log

  • 2026-10-22: AEM −5.98%, B −5.18%, GDX −5.80%, NEM −2.62% (Yahoo), the day before NEM's reaction.
  • 2026-10-23: spot gold −0.6% to $3,998.49 (2:27 PM ET), below $4,000 for the first time since mid-July; −4% week, worst since June; Dec futures settled −1.3% at $4,007.90. Driver: oil-led rate-hike odds (FedWatch ~92% hold at the Oct 27–28 FOMC; ~78% December hike) and tech-selloff margin calls (CNBC, 2026-10-23). Supports: July 17 low $3,959, YTD low $3,941 (FXStreet, 2026-10-23).
  • Freedom Broker cut NEM, AEM and Barrick on 2026-10-23 (Investing.com, 2026-10-23).
  • 10-23 closes (Yahoo): NEM −4.59% (own print), AEM −1.25%, B −1.32%, WPM −2.14%, KGC −1.50%, GDX −1.82%, GDXJ −1.83%, FCX +0.91%.

Upcoming

  • Tue 10-27 BMO: FCX (cluster 16; TRAI elevated).
  • Wed 10-28 after close: AEM Q3; call Thu 10-29 11:00 ET (Agnico Eagle IR, 2026-09-28). Wed 10-28 2:00 PM FOMC.
  • Mon 11-09: Barrick Q3 ~6:00 ET, webcast 11:00 (Barrick, 2026-10-09).
  • AEM print → NEM (43 prints, my calc): bigger NEM moves (|2.20%| vs 1.64%) but no residual read-through (ρ −0.13). Treat as a sector-factor flag (S-060).

2026-10-30 13:00 update

  • Haven failure day: gold fut. −3.15% ($3,904), silver −6.1% (below $50), copper −1.8%; GDX −5.57%, NEM −5.48%, FCX −5.37% while QQQ −3.6% and WTI +2.9% (Yahoo ~13:00 ET). October is gold's worst October since 2008 (~−6%); ~28% below the 01-28 record (Mining.com, 2026-10-30). Drivers: oil → Fed-hike bets (two FOMC dissents for a hike this week; ~82% Dec-9 hike in forwards per FHLBNY, week ending 10-30), and liquidation to cover tech losses.
  • Cluster-16 risk-on ρ is visible: HIMS −8.8%, MARA −9.4%, RIOT −10.0% today (NEM ρ 0.43–0.46; FCX–HIMS 0.54).
  • Gold ≤ −3% event study (n 25, my calc): NEM next-day gap ≈ coin-flip (mean −0.26%). Weekend Iran/Hormuz headlines are the swing factor.
  • Costs (whiggity, checked): energy ~12% of average costs, +10% oil ≈ +$10/oz AISC (Jefferies via Mining.com, 2026-03-15); Agnico +$50–60/oz diesel in Q4 (Mint/Bloomberg, 2026-10-30). Peers 10-30: AEM −7.1%, PAAS −6.9%, SCCO −6.8%. Fund excise-tax year ends Oct 31 (Sat), so 10-30 is the last trading day of that window. Whether today's selling is tax-loss flow is unverified.
  • Source: 2026-10-30 13:00 report §3–4.