TRAI quant day-trading research

← Research · knowledge/companies/NEM.md

NEM — Newmont

_Last updated 2026-10-23 17:00 ET from report (earlier mention: 09:00 report §6). Screening/research, not investment advice._

Business

World's largest gold miner: Nevada Gold Mines JV (with Barrick), Australia (Tanami, Cadia, Boddington), PNG (Lihir), Peñasquito (Mexico; silver/lead/zinc co-products), Ghana, Canada. Revenue tracks gold; costs track oil/diesel, AUD, royalties.

Catalysts, guidance & news

  • Q3 2026, released Thu 2026-10-22 after the close (call 5:30 PM ET) (Newmont, 2026-10-22; 10-Q):
  • 1,302 koz attributable gold; CAS $832; AISC $1,454; realized gold $4,317 (−$97 q/q). Adj. NI $2.3B ($2.20/sh); FCF $1.9B; dividend $0.26; $2.8B left of the $6.0B buyback. Net cash $3.2B before a $1.95B Q4 payment to Barrick (NGM amendment).
  • FY26: 5.26 Moz; CAS $925, AISC $1,520 (improved). Q4E: 1,365 koz, CAS $1,250, AISC $1,900, sustaining capex $600M, development $520M. Lihir El Niño drought risk.
  • 2027: production +low-to-mid single digits; unit costs higher (inflation, diesel, AUD, royalties, lower Peñasquito co-products); development capital +~$500M. Red Chris block cave FID early 2027 ($4.2–4.8B, 100% basis).
  • Sensitivities: guidance assumes gold $4,500 and Brent $70. Gold ±$100 → $505M; Brent ±$10 → $60M direct + $50M indirect (period not stated in the table).
  • Consensus: $2.05 EPS (LSEG; _correction: $6.36B is reported Q3 sales ($6,363M, +15% y/y), not consensus; revenue consensus $6.24–6.28B per Benzinga/Investing.com, so revenue beat too; see 17:00 report §10_; Reuters via Investing.com, 2026-10-22); other sources $1.94–2.11. A beat against all of them. CEO not interested in bidding for Northern Star (same Reuters link).
  • Freedom Broker downgrade, 2026-10-23: Hold from Buy, PT $130 → $116 (Australian cost inflation, Lihir/Cadia) (Benzinga, 2026-10-23). AEM and Barrick also cut (Investing.com, 2026-10-23).
  • Reaction 2026-10-23: +1.5% after hours on 10-22 (Reuters), then gap −3.36%, close −4.59% ($108.87), residual vs GDX ≈ −2.8 pp, with spot gold below $4,000 for the first time since mid-July (CNBC, 2026-10-23).
  • Next print: ~2027-02-18 (Yahoo estimate); TRAI has next = null.

TRAI data (2026-10-23 4:34 PM ET postclose run)

  • −4.59%, gap −3.36% (0.94 ATR), relVol 1.45, ATR 3.56%, beta60 1.55, residZ −1.50, z1d −2.26, rangePos 0.139, below VWAP; signal mean_reversion fade-long (TRAI /api/latest).
  • /api/events: missing the 10-22 print (n 3, next null; S-008/S-061). Last 3: avg |gap| 2.34% (0.57 ATR), fill 67%, continuation 100%; close-close −2.61, +8.68, −1.62%.
  • TRAI replay, NEM mean_reversion: n 8, +0.94% mean, 50% hit (my calc).

Typical post-earnings behaviour (Yahoo, 43 prints 2016–2026, my calc)

  • After reaction days ≤ −3% (n 15): next-day o→c +0.63% (53% up), residual vs GDX +0.24%, days +1..+5 +0.61%. No reliable bounce.
  • On AEM's reaction days, NEM's |move| is 2.20% vs 1.64% baseline, but residual ρ to AEM −0.13: a sector-factor link.

Linkages

  • Cluster 16 with FCX (ρ 0.64). Next: RIVN 0.50, GS 0.48, SOFI 0.47, HIMS 0.46, MARA 0.45, RIOT 0.43; most negative MO −0.30, TTD −0.31. Vs XOM −0.11, CVX −0.16 (TRAI /api/correlations).
  • ρ with gold 2026 YTD 0.74 (last ~60 sessions 0.84), beta 1.24; ρ with WTI −0.17; ρ with SPY 0.47 (Yahoo, my calc). See gold miners.
  • Peers: FCX Tue 10-27 BMO; AEM Wed 10-28 AMC; Barrick Mon 11-09.

2026-10-30 13:00 update

  • −5.48% at ~13:11 ET, below OR30 low, −0.83% vs VWAP, with gold futures −3.15% ($3,904), silver −6.1%, GDX −5.57% (Yahoo). No NEM-specific news found. Drivers per Reuters/Mining.com: oil-led Fed-hike bets (>70% December), stronger Q3 GDP, hotter September inflation, and selling of metals to cover tech losses (Kitco/Reuters, 2026-10-30; Mining.com, 2026-10-30).
  • Guide deck assumes $4,500 gold / $70 Brent; spot is ~$600 below on gold and ~$40 above on Brent.
  • Gold ≤ −3% days (25, 2016–2026, my calc): NEM same-day mean −5.61%; next-day gap mean −0.26% (48% up), o→c median −0.12%, close-to-close median +0.72% (64% up). No reliable gap bounce.
  • Diesel cost read-through (whiggity, checked): Jefferies puts energy at ~12% of the average gold miner's costs, with +10% oil ≈ +$10/oz AISC (Mining.com, 2026-03-15); Agnico sees diesel adding $50–60/oz in Q4 and up to $80/oz in 2027 (Bloomberg via Mint, 2026-10-30). AEM −7.13% on 10-30. The "15–25% of AISC" figure applies to open-pit operations only and is unverified sector-wide.
  • Source: 2026-10-30 13:00 report §3.

Report links

2026-10-30 17:00 update

  • Listed as a mean_reversion fade-long in the official 4:21 PM postclose run, but does not qualify on final data (5:04 PM local re-run). The run used a stale Yahoo daily bar and/or partial-day relVol (report §2–3).