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ORCL — Oracle
_Last updated 2026-10-29 16:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._
Business
Database and enterprise applications, plus Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI). OCI is now a large, debt- and equity-funded AI-capacity build-out for model labs, and Oracle is the hyperscaler with the most leverage in this cycle (CNBC, 2026-10-28).
Catalysts, guidance & news
2026-10-29 16:00 update
- Investor Day (10-28): FY30 targets of revenue $225B+ (>35% CAGR from FY26), non-GAAP operating margin 40%+, EPS $21+. Positive FCF in 2H FY28, $30B+ FCF in FY29. Additional capital raises capped at $20B through FY30 ($10B equity, $10B debt) beyond the $20B ATM done in Q1 FY27. FY27 reaffirmed: revenue ≥$90B, EPS $8.10 (Oracle IR, 2026-10-28).
- Balance sheet: ~$117B long-term debt, S&P BBB-, about −1/3 YTD before the event (CNBC). 5y CDS 287.2bp; notes payable $125.34B and cash $36.37B at Aug 31. AI-cloud peers (CRWV, Nebius, APLD, IREN) rose 2.1–5% on the event (Reuters via Investing.com, 2026-10-28).
- 10-27: Intel–Oracle OCI Xeon collaboration announced (Intel press list).
- Reaction: 10-28 +10.73% (relVol 2.94, residual z 3.94; TRAI long_momentum). 10-29 −3.45% (open 144.13 → close 139.56, open→close −3.17%) as GOOGL's FCF miss revived AI-capex/financing worries. After hours −3.1% (Yahoo ~4:12 PM) with INTC −18% (ρ 0.52) and AMZN −7 to −9% (ρ 0.40).
- Base rate: the day after a ≥+10% day in AI-infra names, next open→close averages −1.00% since 2024 (n 161; report §6.2). ORCL followed it today.
TRAI data (2026-10-29 8:53 AM ET premarket run; daily stats = Oct 28 session)
- Sector (TRAI): Software. Oct 28: +10.73%, gap +0.61%, relVol 2.94, ATR 5.25%, beta60 3.08, residual z 3.94, indicated gap −1.31%, rangePos 0.80 (TRAI /api/latest).
- Next earnings: 2026-12-14, timing unknown, not an estimate per TRAI (TRAI /api/events). Not confirmed by Oracle in my sources.
- Typical earnings reaction (last 4): avg |gap| 11.03% (2.16 ATR), max 14.52%, fill rate 25%, continuation 0%, avg day-1 move in gap direction −4.34%. Big gaps, then day 1 always faded in TRAI's sample (TRAI /api/events).
- Recent events: 2025-12-10 AMC gap −14.52% / day-1 +4.32%; 2026-03-10 AMC gap +11.37% / day-1 −1.96%; 2026-06-10 AMC gap −10.73% / day-1 +2.47%; 2026-09-10 AMC gap +7.51% / day-1 −8.61% (TRAI /api/events).
- Correlation cluster 1 (24 names, avg ρ 0.588, the AI-infra/semis block) (TRAI /api/correlations, asOf 2026-10-22).
- Highest 60d correlations: SOFI 0.64, DELL 0.62, TSM 0.59, SMCI 0.57, ETN 0.55; VRT 0.50, INTC 0.52, AMZN 0.40. Most negative: PM −0.56, MO −0.48, ABBV −0.47 (TRAI /api/correlations).