TRAI quant day-trading research

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Software (theme)

_Last updated 2026-10-30 10:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

What's in it (TRAI universe; label = TRAI "Software" unless noted)

TRAI's "Software" label covers three different factor exposures (TRAI /api/correlations, 60 sessions to 2026-10-22):

  • Application software, cluster 6 (avg ρ 0.626): WDAY, ADBE, INTU, TEAM, CRM, NOW. IBM (labeled Hardware) attaches here: NOW 0.58, CRM 0.54, ADBE 0.53. Average ρ to the core-semis basket (NVDA, AMD, AVGO, MU, TSM, ASML, AMAT, LRCX, KLAC) is negative: INTU −0.41, ADBE −0.38, WDAY −0.23, NOW −0.22, CRM −0.17, IBM −0.03.
  • Security/data, cluster 5 (avg ρ 0.633): PLTR, DDOG, NET, ZS, PANW, CRWD. ρ to core semis +0.14 to +0.30 (ZS −0.04).
  • AI-infrastructure software: ORCL sits inside semis cluster 1 (ρ to core semis +0.49). MSFT is its own cluster (+0.33). SNOW pairs with TSLA (cluster 17).
  • Sector matrix: Software intra-sector ρ only 0.35; Software vs Semis 0.09 (TRAI sectorMatrix). The low average hides the split above.

Why they move

  • When worries about AI-infrastructure cost and payback dominate, sellers of software to customers "can look more attractive by comparison" (Kalkine, 2026-10-22). The same names had been sold this year on fears that AI tools displace seat-based software (24/7 Wall St., 2026-10-22).

Event log

  • 2026-10-21 AMC: IBM beat and raised its software outlook to ~7–8%. It gapped −4.06% on deal-slippage concerns and closed +0.26% (IBM note).
  • 2026-10-22: semis −6% day. App software rallied: ADBE +6.07, INTU +5.75, CRM +3.52, WDAY +3.46, NOW +2.53. AI-infra software fell: ORCL −2.78, PLTR −2.74, SNOW −2.72, MSFT −2.23, DDOG −5.62 (TRAI /api/latest). IGV −0.2% midday (24/7 Wall St.). Salesforce announced a ~$5.66B all-cash Braze acquisition the same week (MarketBeat, 2026-10-22; aggregator).
  • 2026-10-23 10:14 ET: partial unwind. SMH +0.86% while ADBE −1.40, NOW −0.83, INTU −1.58, CRM −1.77 (Yahoo chart API; report).

Upcoming catalysts (TRAI /api/events, asOf 2026-10-23)

  • NOW 10-28 AMC (confirmed by ServiceNow IR), the same evening as MSFT and GOOGL AMC and the FOMC decision. INTU est. 11-19 (date not yet announced by Intuit). CRM est. 12-02. ADBE 12-09. ORCL 12-14. IBM: none on file.

Historical reaction samples (last 4 earnings each; descriptive only; TRAI /api/events)

  • NOW avg |gap| 7.58% (1.62 ATR), continuation 75%. INTU 8.92% (2.16 ATR), fill 25%. IBM 5.35% (1.91 ATR). ADBE 4.58% (1.11 ATR), continuation 0%. CRM 4.27% (1.17 ATR). WDAY 5.80%. ORCL 11.03% (2.16 ATR). MSFT 6.51% (2.62 ATR).
  • Several large down-gaps came on EPS beats (NOW Apr-26 −15.35% on a +0.36% surprise; INTU May-26 −18.66%). Guidance and AI-disruption narrative drive the reaction, not the EPS line.

Sympathy map: whiggity consult vs TRAI data (60d ρ to 2026-10-22)

  • Supported: ADBE/INTU with CRM/WDAY (0.51–0.71); NOW–TEAM 0.71. All in cluster 6.
  • Not supported: NOW–MSFT 0.12 (a shared-catalyst link only: both report Oct 28 AMC); IBM–ORCL 0.15 (ORCL trades with semis).
  • Unverified (not in TRAI's universe): ADSK, ACN, HUBS. Precedent: in July 2026, WDAY/ADBE/INTU/ADSK/CRM rallied together on a chips→software rotation (Yahoo/Stocktwits, 2026-08-03).
  • Open research questions from the consult: S-015, S-016, S-017 (consult).
  • Calendar adds: Adobe MAX Nov 10–12; TEAM 11-05 AMC (TRAI); WDAY has no date in TRAI (S-008).

2026-10-29 16:00 update (report)

  • NOW Q3 (10-28 AMC): Q4 cRPO guide +18.5% (vs ~19%) revived AI-disruption fears. 10-29 −26.97% (worst day ever; gap −19.47%, then −9.3% open→close). FTNT also fell >20%; IGV −3.49%; CRM −4.62% (ρ to NOW 0.75). TRAI /api/events missed the NOW print (S-068).
  • Base rates: software/megacap after a ≤−15% day, next open→close +0.28% (n 46, t +0.40), so no follow-through edge. TRAI replay: NOW post-earnings shorts lost in Apr and Jul (−5.12%, −4.07%). TRAI labels ORCL "Software", but it trades in semis cluster 1. ORCL Investor Day: ORCL.

Company notes

ADBE · NOW · INTU · IBM · related: semiconductors (inverse factor), ORCL in cluster 1

2026-10-29 17:00 update

  • CRM −4.63% on NOW sympathy (ρ 0.75); mean_reversion fade-long for 10-30. After hours CRM −1.1% with AMZN −6.3%. CRM
  • Source: 2026-10-29 17:00 report.

2026-10-30 09:00 update

2026-10-30 10:00 update

  • 10-30 ~10:13 ET: the 10-22 split repeated. Cluster 6 bid: INTU +3.4%, ADBE +3.1%, WDAY +2.1%, CRM +0.4% (NOW −1.3%, TEAM −3.6%). Cluster 5 and consumption names sold: NET −8.0%, DDOG −7.6%, SNOW −7.6%, PLTR −4.2%, ZS −3.4%. IGV −2.1%. Driver: AI-capex/cash-burn worries after AMZN (TTM FCF −$42.4B; 2026 capex held at ~$220B, raised from ~$200B back in July) and GOOGL, plus TWLO's guide (Yahoo live, 2026-10-30; CNBC). No company-specific news for the cluster-6 gainers.
  • Upcoming prints: PLTR 11-02 AMC, SHOP 11-03 BMO, DDOG 11-04 BMO, APP 11-04 AMC, NET and TEAM 11-05 AMC (TRAI /api/events).
  • 2026-10-30 10:00 — open follow-through, telecom/pharma bid, software split

2026-10-30 12:00 update

  • PLTR prints Mon 11-02 AMC: TRAI avg |gap| 9.61% (2.23 ATR), 0% fill; consensus above its own FY guide. Its highest-ρ peers (NET, SNOW, ZS, TEAM, NOW) are the names being sold today (SNOW −9.5% at 12:02 ET). A Tuesday PLTR gap is a cluster-5 shock ahead of NET/TEAM on Thursday.
  • 2026-10-30 12:00 — Monday AMC prints

2026-10-30 17:00 update

  • SHOP (MR fade-long) prints Tue 11-03 BMO (call 8:30 ET). Last-4 avg |gap| 11.4%. Q3 guide: revenue growth low-30s %, FCF margin high-teens to low-20s (Shopify IR, 2026-08-05). Note: SHOP.
  • SNOW and NET drop out of MR on final data. SNOW's official-run close of 297.87 was a stale ~13:35 bar; the final was 306.08 (−7.32%) (report §2).

2026-11-02 10:00 update

  • Day 2 after Friday's sell-off: QQQ +0.83% but IGV −0.39% at ~10:15 ET.
  • Cluster 5 / consumption still sold: DDOG −4.6%, NET −4.4%, MDB −3.3%, CRWD −2.0%, SNOW −1.7%.
  • Seat/app software bid: NOW +2.7%, CRM +1.2%, ADBE +1.2%.
  • Ad/gaming bounce: APP +3.5%, U +5.9%.
  • Friday's drops at DDOG/APP/TEAM/SHOP had no company news (multiple compression; DDOG's NTM EPS estimate unchanged). RBLX was the only own-print flush.
  • Prints this week: PLTR 11-02 AMC, SHOP 11-03 BMO, DDOG 11-04 BMO, APP 11-04 AMC, TEAM/NET 11-05 AMC.
  • Base rate (my calc): day 2 after a ≥10% post-earnings drop, software/internet: n 20, o→c +1.04% avg / +0.52% median, 10/20 up. No edge.
  • New notes: DDOG · APP · TEAM. Report

2026-11-02 14:00 update

  • PLTR prints tonight (options ~11.5–13%); cluster-5 peers NET −4.5%, SNOW −3.4% into it. A PLTR gap reads across to NET/SNOW/ZS/PANW/CRWD/DDOG on Tuesday.
  • 2026-11-02 14:00 report

2026-11-02 16:00 update

  • Close: PLTR's 60d cluster fell 2.4–8.2% (DDOG −8.15%, ZS −5.90%, NET −5.50%, SNOW −5.08%). PLTR's AMC beat and guide raise left the stock flat in AH as of 16:32; SNOW +0.4% AH. No ρ ≥ 0.7 read-through estimate (PLTR \|AH\| < 3%). Report

2026-11-05 15:00 update

  • APP Q3 (11-04 AMC) beat-and-raise: rev $2.185B (+55%), diluted EPS $4.30, adj. EBITDA $1.842B (84%), Q4 rev guide $2.365–2.395B (AppLovin IR). Reaction day ~+29.5% (Yahoo). LM day-2 already largely done by 15:00 — flat-by-3:55, no new entry. APP
  • DDOG Q3 (11-04 BMO): rev $1.20B (+35%), adj EPS $0.81, but Q4 rev guide $1.19–1.20B; stock −14.42% (TRAI). Secondary sources cite largest-AI-customer contractual minimum. DDOG
  • Tonight AMC cluster-5 / app-software gap risk: NET (5:00 PM ET, Cloudflare IR) pre-print ~−13% after DDOG crush (ρ 0.78; avg |gap| 11.6%); TEAM (5:00 PM ET, Atlassian IR) pre-print ~−3.8% into 13.7% avg |gap| (recent +21% / +32%). report

2026-11-05 17:00 EST — released NET/TEAM split, not a uniform software catalyst

  • NET beat its old issuer guide and raised FY revenue; TEAM also raised FY27 ARR/revenue/Cloud growth to 18.5%/13.75%/26% from 18%/13%/25.5% (SEC prior issuer release). TEAM FY ARR growth below Q1's 23% is deceleration versus a different period, not a guidance cut.
  • Early AH paths differ: NET +14.31%, TEAM −15.98% at 5:05 PM EST versus their respective Nov 5 cash closes. These thin/delayed bars are not Friday gaps; subscription-outlook causal attribution is secondary. TEAM–NOW rho 0.71 / TEAM–CRM 0.69 asOf Nov 4 do not make TEAM a direct NET substitute.
  • Latest Nov 5 4:49:57 PM EST run is stress (LM 0, SM 35 suspended, MR 8 including ZS); standalone regime/macro/scorecard/correlations remain Nov 4. Do not combine them into a synchronized current sector signal. 17:00 report

2026-11-06 10:00 — AMC software split holds on day-1

  • Same Thu AMC night: NET beat/raise day-1 ~+11–12% vs TEAM outlook-scare day-1 ~−15–17%. Do not treat TRAI "Software" as one factor (S-014). APP day-2 ~+5% after Thu +31%; LM empty. Report.

2026-11-06 17:00 update — earnings-week bifurcation under STRESS (S-151)

  • Correlation homes refreshed (asOf 2026-11-05): cluster 11 TEAM/CRM/NOW; cluster 7 NET/DDOG/ZS/CRWD/PANW/PLTR/SNOW; cluster 9 INTU/WDAY/ADBE/TTD; APP singleton cluster 27. (Prior "cluster 6/5" labels in older paragraphs are historical — use current ids.)
  • Fri postclose: TEAM SM −16.15% vs APP LM +9.86% vs NET +9.91% (rangePos 0.18) vs CRM/INTU/WDAY −3–4%. XLK still a 20d laggard into the week (/api/macro asOf 11-05).
  • Proposal S-151: split Software SM/MR/LM risk by those clusters (extends S-146…S-150). Evidence: 17:00 report.