NET — Cloudflare

_Last updated 2026-10-30 10:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

Business

Edge network, CDN, security and developer platform.

Catalysts, guidance & news

• 2026-10-22: Cloudflare's CEO said PHP exploit attempts reached "millions" (Reuters via Investing.com).
• 2026-10-23: +5.5% at ~11:15 ET (Yahoo). Reports 11-05 AMC (TRAI /api/events).

TRAI data (2026-10-23 8:53 AM ET premarket run; daily stats = Oct 22 session)

• Sector (TRAI): Software. Oct 22: -1.18%, relVol 1.67, ATR 5.95%, beta60 2.64, indicated gap +1.05%, signals: none (TRAI /api/latest).
• Next earnings: 2026-11-05 AMC, gap risk None (TRAI /api/events, asOf 2026-10-23).
• Historical earnings sample (n=4; descriptive, not an established typical reaction): avg |gap| 11.58% (2.39 ATR), max |gap| 15.41%, gap fill rate 0%, continuation 50%, avg day-1 move in gap direction +1.13% (TRAI /api/events).
• Recent events: 2025-10-30 AMC: gap +6.29%, day-1 +7.10%, close-close +13.84%, EPS surprise 15.36%; 2026-02-10 AMC: gap +12.82%, day-1 -6.72%, close-close +5.24%, EPS surprise 3.21%; 2026-05-07 AMC: gap -15.41%, day-1 -9.71%, close-close -23.62%, EPS surprise 7.03%; 2026-08-06 AMC: gap +11.80%, day-1 -5.58%, close-close +5.57%, EPS surprise 7.5% (TRAI /api/events).
• Correlation cluster 5 (avg ρ 0.633, 60d): PLTR, DDOG, NET, ZS, PANW, CRWD (TRAI /api/correlations, asOf 2026-10-22).
• Highest 60d correlations: CRWD 0.74, PANW 0.73, ZS 0.71, DDOG 0.68, SNOW 0.59 (TRAI /api/correlations).

2026-10-30 09:00 update

• Premarket −3.88% (09:12) in consumption-software sympathy with AMZN/TWLO (TWLO −21.9%).

Report links

• 2026-10-23 11:00 — telecom/SpaceX, energy services, security
• 2026-10-30 09:00 — premarket rotation, INTC/crypto shocks, BMO prints

2026-10-30 10:00 update

• 10-30 ~10:13 ET: −7.99%, below OR30, −1.7% vs VWAP. Consumption-software sympathy with AMZN (record FCF burn) and TWLO (Q4 organic growth guide 11–12%) (Investing.com). Reports Thu 11-05 AMC (avg |gap| 11.6%, TRAI).
• 2026-10-30 10:00 — open follow-through, telecom/pharma bid, software split, events blind spot

2026-10-30 17:00 update

• Listed as a mean_reversion fade-long in the official 4:21 PM postclose run, but does not qualify on final data (5:04 PM local re-run). The run used a stale Yahoo daily bar and/or partial-day relVol (report §2–3).

2026-11-05 15:00 update

• Prints tonight AMC: Cloudflare Q3'26 earnings event 5:00 PM ET (Cloudflare IR event [V-P]). TRAI gapRisk imminent; avg |gap| still 11.58% (2.39 ATR), fill 0%.
• Pre-print weakness (Yahoo unofficial, ~15:08 ET): last ≈ 238.73 vs 273.62 ≈ −12.7% (Yahoo daily last ~238.45; 11-04 close 266.58).
• Cluster-5 peer context: DDOG −14.42% on 11-04 (beat Q3 $1.20B / adj EPS $0.81 but Q4 rev guide $1.19–1.20B; secondary sources cite largest-AI-customer contractual minimum) — DDOG–NET ρ 0.78 (/api/correlations, asOf 2026-11-04). See DDOG and 15:00 report.
• Cluster listing refresh: PLTR, SNOW, ZS, PANW, CRWD, DDOG, NET (avg ρ 0.678; API cluster id 6 this run).

2026-11-05 17:00 EST — released Q3, positive issuer-specific repricing

• Issuer Q3 release [V-P]: revenue $782.5M (+39%), non-GAAP EPS $0.38, cRPO growth 37%; Q4 revenue $845–846M, FY $2.963–2.964B. Prior Q2 issuer guide: Q3 $736–737M, FY $2.864–2.870B; actual Q3 +6.25% versus old midpoint and FY midpoint raised 3.37% [CALC].
• Counter-evidence: non-GAAP gross margin 72.4% vs 75.3%; FCF margin 10% vs 13% despite higher dollar FCF. No call/transcript conclusions.
• Nov 5 cash close $244.51 (−8.28%) in the 4:49:57 PM EST latest run; Yahoo 5:05 PM EST AH bar $279.50 (+14.31% vs today's cash close). Delayed/thin, possibly incomplete, not a Friday opening gap or executable quote.
• No current LM signal. NET–ZS rho 0.76 / NET–DDOG 0.78 (60d, asOf Nov 4); ZS/DDOG were not positively repriced in the observed AH bars. Positive guide is not automatic peer-long evidence in stress. Historical n=4 gap statistics are descriptive only, not an established typical reaction. 17:00 report

2026-11-06 10:00 update — day-1 after AMC beat/raise

• Issuer Q3 [V-P] unchanged: rev $782.5M (+39%), non-GAAP EPS $0.38, Q4 $845–846M, FY $2,963–2,964M, FY NI/sh $1.35 (Cloudflare press, 2026-11-05).
• TRAI 8:58 indicatedGapPct +20.53%; Yahoo day-1 ~10:10–10:31 ~+10.8% to +11.8% vs Thu close 244.51 — large unrefilled gap.
• S-006: do not same-day MR-fade. No LM signal (LM empty). Contrast TEAM outlook scare same AMC night (S-014 split).
• Source: 2026-11-06 10:00 report.

2026-11-06 17:00 update — day-1 after Thu AMC beat/raise (gap-fade)

• Issuer Q3 (Cloudflare PR 2026-11-05 [V-P]): rev $782.5M (+39%), non-GAAP EPS $0.38, non-GAAP op. inc. $137.1M (17.5%); Q4 rev $845–846M; FY26 rev $2,963–2,964M; FY non-GAAP EPS $1.35.
• Yahoo Fri close 268.75 (+9.91%) vs Thu 244.51; TRAI gap +17.37%, rangePos 0.18, residZ +2.46, ATR% >8% (liq fail). Cluster 7. Opposite day-1 sign vs TEAM (S-014). S-005/S-066: do not chase / invent Monday LM from rangePos 0.18. Feeds S-151.
• Source: 2026-11-06 17:00 report.