← Research · knowledge/reports/2026-11-02-1600-close-wrap-vol-bid-holds-on-ah-gap-pltr-aapl-vrtx-flat-tue-shop-pfe-election.md
2026-11-02 16:00 ET: Close wrap: SPY slides to −0.47% at the low and the front-end vol bid holds (VIX9D/VIX 1.07); first AH prints: ON −5% to −6% on a Q3 beat above guide midpoint plus a $600M Ferric deal (the Synaptics cash revision dates from 10-01), PLTR whipsaws on a guide raise, AAPL −1% on a top-line beat, VRTX flat; Tuesday BMO SHOP/PFE plus Election Day
Slot: Mon 2026-11-02 16:00 ET hourly research. Status: DRAFT, written ~16:05–16:40 ET (EST). The whiggity consult was partly folded into §9 at ~16:45–17:10 ET (the fold run stopped partway; finished in the 17:00 slot). It corrected the Synaptics timing in the title, §3 and §7 and added an Election Day range check. Post-call AAPL/PLTR items and the settled AH check are in the 17:00 report. Screening/research, not investment advice.
TRAI data used: /api/latest = premarket run 2026-10-30_premarket_2026-11-02T13-58-09-807Z (8:58 AM ET; marketSessionDate 2026-10-30; regime stress, VIX9D/VIX 1.015, riskPerTradePct 0.25). Stale: at 16:09 ET there was no post-close run for today, and production is still pinned to an older deploy because of Vercel's 100-builds/day limit. /api/events (generated 12:38 UTC = 7:38 AM ET), /api/correlations (60d, asOf 10-30), /api/regime (asOf 10-30, neutral, score 4.5): all 200, read ~16:09 ET.
Quotes: Yahoo chart API, 5-min bars incl. extended hours. Regular-session close = regularMarketPrice; AH = last post-market bar at the stated time. CBOE indices ^VIX / ^VIX9D / ^VIX3M at the close (Yahoo chart API). VWAP = my calc from 5-min typical price × volume; OR30 = 9:30–10:00. Unofficial, may be delayed. Extended-hours prints are thin. All replay statistics are my own calculations (scripts: scripts/research-calcs/2026-11-02-early-ah-move-vs-reaction-gap.py, scripts/research-calcs/2026-11-02-peer-gap-on-reaction-day.py).
Previous slots today: 09:00, 10:00, 11:00, 12:00, 13:00 (ETN preview), 14:00 (PLTR/AAPL/ON/VRTX previews, AI-hardware fade), 15:00 (oil −7% rotation, BKNG/MPC previews). This hour covers what came after those: the last 50 minutes of the tape, the actual AMC numbers with the first AH reactions, and the Tuesday-morning slate besides MPC/ETN. The previews and the oil-rotation story are not repeated.
1. Focus and why
- Did the 15:07 picture hold into the close? At 15:07 SPY was flat, and VIX9D/VIX ≈ 1.05 met S-129's trigger only marginally. The close decides whether S-129 and the S-092 by-hand halving apply to Tuesday.
- Long-momentum list (active): REGN, CMCSA, TMUS, SPOT, AMZN, PSX. Where each closed relative to VWAP is the best read on day 2 we have, because the production run is stale.
- Tonight's prints: The question that matters for TRAI is narrower than "beat or miss". Does any AMC print put Tuesday gap risk on an LM name through a ρ ≥ 0.7 link, and is the early-AH move a usable gap estimate? §6 tests both.
- Tuesday: SHOP and PFE BMO (ETN/MPC covered at 13:00/15:00), AMGN AMC, ISM-day data, and Election Day.
2. Tape at the close, 16:00 ET (vs Fri 10-30 close; 15:07 value from the 15:00 report in brackets)
| Name | TRAI bucket | Close chg [15:07] | vs VWAP (my calc) | OR30 / range position | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY / QQQ / IWM | index | −0.47% [0.00%] / −1.36% [−0.62%] / −0.05% [+0.33%] | all below (SPY 752.15 vs 758.40) | SPY closed below OR30 low, range pos 0.04 | last-hour sell-off |
| SMH / XLK | sector | −2.71% / −2.92% | below | at lows | |
| XLE | sector | −3.93% [−3.37%] | below | WTI 95.78 (−8.0%), Brent 103.92 (−8.4%) on CL=F/BZ=F | |
| XLY / XLF / XLP | sector | +2.39% [+2.46%] / +1.83% / +1.60% | XLY slightly below; XLF at VWAP | XLF 0.82, XLP 0.89 | defensives/financials held |
| XLB / XLI / XLRE / XLU / XLC / XLV | sector | +1.74 / +1.40 / +1.11 / +0.58 / +0.38 / −0.11% | |||
| ^VIX / ^VIX9D / ^VIX3M | — | 21.42 (+10.3%) / 22.91 (+19.0%) / 21.64 [20.66 / 21.76] | VIX9D high 23.06 | VIX9D/VIX ≈ 1.07, VIX/VIX3M ≈ 0.99 [CALC] | |
| PSX | LM | −2.75% [−2.13%] | below (275.04 vs 277.78, −1.0%) | closed below OR30 low (275.50), range pos 0.07 | MPC Tue BMO, ρ 0.91 |
| AMZN | LM | +2.20% [+3.34%] | below (245.63 vs 250.35, −1.9%) | inside OR | gave back ~1.1 pts in the last hour |
| REGN | LM | +3.60% | at VWAP (961.26 vs 961.42) | inside OR, range pos 0.73 | VRTX ρ 0.61 |
| CMCSA | LM | +2.80% | above (+0.9%) | above OR30 high, range pos 1.00 | closed at the high |
| TMUS | LM | +2.37% | above (+1.2%) | above OR30 high, range pos 0.95 | |
| SPOT | LM | +0.11% | at VWAP | inside OR | |
| PLTR (MR) / ANET / AMAT / ASML | MR | −3.13% / −2.80% / −3.99% / −2.54% | PLTR below (183.52) | PLTR range pos 0.05 | MR fade-longs closed near lows |
| GS / JPM / ETN / SHOP / HOOD / ISRG | MR | +0.46 / +1.10 / −1.03 / −0.81 / −1.35 / +1.13% | GS −1.0% below; ETN below | ETN, SHOP print Tue BMO | |
| SNOW / NET / DDOG / ZS / CRWD / PANW / TEAM | PLTR ρ 0.56–0.79 | −5.08 / −5.50 / −8.15 / −5.90 / −3.44 / −3.87 / −2.42% | DDOG range pos 0.02 | software flush into PLTR | |
| MPC / VLO / XOM / COP | — | −3.21 / −4.56 / −4.01 / −4.66% |
- The bid for vol held, and the index tape broke in the last hour. SPY went from flat at 15:07 to −0.47%, closing below its OR30 low and at 0.04 of the day's range. QQQ doubled its loss to −1.36%. VIX closed at 21.42, still below the 22 code-halving line, but VIX9D finished at 22.91 (+19%), above it. The Yahoo Finance close wrap: Dow +0.4%, S&P −0.5%, Nasdaq down more than 1%, after the Nasdaq lost 5.2% in October. It also noted the $6.3B Binance hack with BTC under $77k, and Brent near $104 (Yahoo Finance live blog, 4:05 PM EST 2026-11-02).
- Software led the decline. PLTR's whole 60d cluster fell 2.4–8.2%, with DDOG −8.15%. StockStory ties the morning software drop (NET, DDOG, MDB, FROG, ESTC) to Oracle's $20B raise and to AI-capex worries (StockStory, 2026-11-02). The other overhang was Anthropic's amended S-1: Q3 revenue ~$17B, +47% q/q (vs +144% in Q2), and $895.4B of purchase commitments (CNBC, 2026-11-02 9:32 AM). IBD's 15:26 headline was "Nasdaq Falls As Micron, Seagate Sink". I have no source for why the selling sped up after 15:07. I can only say the pattern fits pre-print de-risking.
- LM split at the close: CMCSA and TMUS closed above VWAP and above OR30 high, the strongest day-2 profile on the list. REGN and SPOT closed at VWAP. AMZN and PSX closed below VWAP. PSX also closed below its OR30 low, the weakest profile, with MPC printing before Tuesday's open.
3. Tonight's AMC prints: headline vs consensus and first AH (times ET)
| Name | Release (SEC) | Headline vs consensus | Guide | AH move vs close (time) | Options implied | TRAI avg / max \ | gap\ | TRAI ρ ≥ 0.6 peers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | 8-K ex-99.1, ~16:0x | Rev $2.313B (+96% y/y) vs ~$2.17–2.18B; adj EPS $0.44 vs $0.40–0.41 | Q4 rev $2.649–2.653B; FY $8.530–8.534B (was $8.150–8.158B; cons ~$8.2B) | +2.3% (16:16) → −0.2% (16:32); AH range −3.3% to +5.4% | ~11.5% (CNBC) / ±13.3% (TipRanks) | 9.61% / 15.52% | SNOW .79, NET .69, TEAM .68, ZS .67, DDOG .67 | ||
| ON | 8-K Item 2.02 accepted 16:15:56 (not out when first checked 16:10) | Rev $1,722.3M vs ~$1.70B; non-GAAP EPS $0.90 vs $0.88; GM 41.2% | Q4 rev $1,715–1,815M (mid $1.765B vs ~$1.74B); EPS $0.95–1.07; GM 41.5–43.5% | −3.8% (16:16) → −6.5% (16:28) / −5.9% (16:32) | ~10.3–11.2% | 2.73% / 4.96% | ADI .75, MCHP .74, TXN .73, TSM .58, ETN .57 | ||
| AAPL | 8-K ex-99.1, 16:30:23 (not out at 16:16) | Rev $114.48B vs $113.39B (LSEG); iPhone $57.58B vs $56.54B; EPS $2.10 vs $1.99 LSEG (incl. +$0.05 tariff refunds) | none in release; call 5:00 PM | −0.6% to −1.0% (16:32); AH range 332.00–340.90 | ~4% | 3.65% / 8.58% | none ≥ 0.4 (singleton) | ||
| VRTX | 8-K ex-99.1, accepted 16:05:46 | Rev $3.44B vs $3.40–3.42B; non-GAAP EPS $4.76 vs $4.76–4.92 (in line to miss) | FY rev raised to $13.15–13.25B (from $13.1–13.2B); non-GAAP opex ~$6.0B (from $5.65–5.75B) | +4.6% at 16:09 on ~7k shares → −0.4% (16:16) / −1.1% (16:32) | not found | 0.95% / 1.75% | LLY .68, PFE .64, AMGN .64, JNJ .62, REGN .61 |
Sources: PLTR SEC ex-99.1, 2026-11-02, consensus and guide-vs-consensus Yahoo Finance, 4:08 PM 2026-11-02; ON SEC ex-99.1, 2026-11-02; AAPL SEC ex-99.1, 2026-11-02, LSEG comparisons CNBC live blog, 2026-11-02; VRTX SEC ex-99.1, 2026-11-02. Options-implied figures for PLTR/ON/AAPL are as sourced in the 14:00 report. TRAI history and ρ from /api/events and /api/correlations. AH quotes from Yahoo (unofficial).
PLTR detail. US commercial revenue was $984M (+148% y/y, +29% q/q) and passed US government ($953M, +96%) for the first time. The adjusted operating margin was 62% ($1.427B). The weak spot is bookings. Total TCV was $2.918B, only +6% y/y. US commercial TCV was $1.463B, +11% y/y, against $2.132B (+153%) in Q2. US commercial remaining deal value was $6.517B, +79% y/y but only +4% q/q. FY adj FCF guide is $4.8–5.0B; US commercial FY guide is > $3.559B (+143%). [CALC] With FY consensus at ~$8.22B and 9M revenue of ~$5.88B, consensus implied a Q4 of ~$2.34B. The Q4 guide midpoint of $2.651B is ~13% above that. So the guide is a large beat, and the bookings decline is the bear case. The AH whipsaw (+5.4% high, −3.3% low, −0.2% at 16:32) fits that conflict. The 5:00 PM call had not been heard at writing.
ON detail. Q3 is a small beat: revenue +11% y/y and +7% q/q, and GM up 190 bp q/q. PSG revenue was $889.9M (+21%). AI data-center revenue rose 39% q/q and 175% y/y. FCF was $489M. The Q4 midpoint is ~1.4% above consensus [CALC on the ~$1.74B cited]. The same release announces a Ferric acquisition, with the 2030 AI-data-center revenue target raised by $500M to > $3B. It also restates the Synaptics revision (~$5.7B in cash, previously $7B in stock). Correction (§9): that revision was announced on 10-01, not tonight, and ON rose 10% over 10-01/10-02 on it. The second 8-K (Items 1.01/7.01, accepted 16:15:52, ex-2.1) is the Ferric merger agreement. My first-draft inference, that the −6% was a reaction to the Synaptics cash terms, is withdrawn. The cause of the AH drop is unsourced (§9).
AAPL detail (all from the release; % are my calc). Revenue +12% y/y. iPhone +17.5% y/y; per CNBC it includes only 8 days of iPhone 18 Pro sales, and the iPhone Duo shipped after quarter-end. Services $31.573B, +9.8% y/y, in line with $31.56B. Mac +23.7%, iPad −10.4% (CNBC: below estimates), Wearables −7.9%, Greater China $17.54B (+21.0%). GM was 47.9% including ~1 pt of tariff refunds, vs 50.1% last quarter (CNBC). Inventory is $14.54B vs $5.72B a year ago (2.5×), which may be component buffering during the memory shortage; that reading is unverified. There is no December-quarter guidance in the release. It comes on the call, so the AH move before ~17:30 is not the final reaction.
VRTX detail. ALYFTREK $705.8M vs ~$688M modelled. TRIKAFTA $2,436.9M, vs $2,653.6M a year ago. CASGEVY $99M, JOURNAVX $58M, PALSONIFY $10M (September only). GAAP EPS of $2.56 carries ~$500M of Crinetics-related costs. Povetacicept PDUFA is 11-30. Cash $9.8B. The +4.6% print at 16:09 came on ~6.9k shares (range 525–590). By 16:16 the stock was −0.4% on Yahoo-reported AH volume of ~445k. Treat the first post-release prints as noise; §6A explains why.
4. Tuesday 11-03 before the open (beyond MPC and ETN) and macro
| Name / item | Time (ET) | Consensus / setup | Options implied | TRAI avg / med / max \ | gap\ | Fill / cont / day-1 | TRAI link to a candidate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHOP (MR list) | BMO | Rev ~$3.74–3.75B, adj EPS ~$0.45–0.47 (Zacks; MarketWatch/FactSet $3.75B / $0.47, GAAP $0.37). Company guided low-30s% revenue growth, gross-profit dollars up mid-to-high 20s% | ±12.1% (Benzinga) / ±14.0% (earnings-watcher 11-02; OptionScout $157.5 straddle $22.05, 11-01) | 11.39 / 9.09 / 21.65% | 0.5 / 0.5 / −2.45% | SNAP/APP/AFRM .53, PLTR .49 (cluster 11) | ||
| PFE | BMO (call 10:00 AM per MarketBeat) | Rev ~$16.0B (−4%), adj EPS $0.73 (−16%); 8 Buy / 14 Hold / 1 Sell; Jefferies Buy PT $36, Citi Hold PT $27 | ±5.2% (earnings-watcher, 11-02) | 1.78 / 1.10 / 4.88% | 0.75 / – / – | BMY .73, MRK .66, REGN .60, SPOT .50 | ||
| ETN (13:00 report) | BMO | — | ±7.4% (earnings-watcher, 11-02) | 5.97 / 6.28 / 8.56% | 0.25 / 0 / −3.22% | GEV .83, ASML .80, ADI .79, ANET .78 | ||
| AMGN | AMC Tue | — | ±4.8% (earnings-watcher, 11-02) | 2.74% | cont 1.0, day-1 +3.51% | VRTX .64 | ||
| Redbook | 8:55 | — | ||||||
| Manufacturing PMI (final, as listed) | 9:45 | fcst 56.0, prev 55.9 | ||||||
| JOLTS | 10:00 | fcst 7.110M, prev 7.079M | ||||||
| Factory orders / durables ex-defense | 10:00 | fcst +1.2% (prev +0.1%) / 2.2% | ||||||
| IBD/TIPP optimism | 10:00 | 46.2 | ||||||
| Vehicle sales | 14:00 | 15.90M | ||||||
| API crude | 16:30 | |||||||
| Election Day (midterms) | all day; results after the close | Treasury refunding statement Wed 11-04 8:30 AM; jobs report Fri |
Sources: SHOP consensus Yahoo/Zacks, 11:24 AM 2026-11-02, MarketWatch preview; SHOP implied Benzinga, 2026-11-02, earnings-watcher, OptionScout. PFE TipRanks, 2026-11-02, MarketBeat. Implied moves for PFE/ETN/AMGN: earnings-watcher PFE, ETN, AMGN ("as of November 2, 2026", read 16:20 ET). Macro calendar Investing.com, 2:00 PM 2026-11-02. Election date per 2 U.S.C. §7 (verified in earlier reports). MPC: no implied move found (earnings-watcher 404).
- S-128 check (implied vs TRAI history) [CALC]: S-128 fires when implied is more than 2× TRAI's avg. PFE 5.2 / 1.78 = 2.9×, which fires (TRAI's history understates it badly). AMGN 4.8 / 2.74 = 1.75×, ETN 7.4 / 5.97 = 1.24× and SHOP 12.1–14.0 / 11.39 = 1.06–1.23× do not fire. ON tonight: implied ~10–11% vs TRAI 2.73% (~4×), and the AH move is already −6%, so S-128's premise is confirmed live: TRAI's 4-print history was the wrong size gauge.
- PFE → REGN (LM) at ρ 0.60 is the only Tuesday-BMO link to an active LM name besides MPC → PSX (ρ 0.91, 15:00 report). REGN–PFE is below the 0.7 bar used in §6B. Using §6B's ρ 0.7–0.8 ratio of 0.26 as an upper bound [CALC], a 5% PFE gap implies ≲ 1.3% for REGN. That is a flag, not a block.
5. Read-through to Tuesday gaps (my calc; expected = §6 ratios applied to the 16:32 AH)
| AMC reporter (AH 16:32) | Expected reporter gap [CALC: × 1.19] | ρ ≥ 0.7 peers | Expected peer gap [CALC: × 0.26–0.32] | Peer AH at last print | In TRAI buckets? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ON −5.9% | ~−7.0% | ADI .75, MCHP .74, TXN .73 | ~−1.8% to −2.2% | ADI +0.57% (16:18), MCHP −0.17% (16:17), TXN +0.37% (16:29) | none (ETN is MR, ρ .57) |
| PLTR −0.2% | below the 3% threshold: no estimate | SNOW .79 | n/a | SNOW +0.44% (16:27) | PLTR is MR; TEAM/DDOG are SM (suspended) |
| AAPL −1.0% | below threshold (guide still to come) | none | — | — | none |
| VRTX −1.1% | below threshold | none ≥ 0.7 (LLY .68; REGN .61 is LM) | — | — | REGN (LM), weak link |
- ON's peers are not reacting yet in AH. ADI and TXN are slightly green, and MCHP's last print is stale with no AH volume. §6B says peers usually follow the reporter's sign (93%), so the "unchanged" AH quotes on peers are not evidence of decoupling.
6. Tests (my calc, Yahoo 5-min + TRAI /api/events)
A. Does the early AH move predict the reaction gap? (scripts/research-calcs/2026-11-02-early-ah-move-vs-reaction-gap.py; every AMC print in /api/events inside Yahoo's ~60-day 5-min window, 09-10 → 10-29, n 36; AH = last extended-hours bar at the time vs that day's close; gap = TRAI's recorded reaction gap.)
| AH snapshot | Sign match | Pearson r (AH, gap) | Median \ | gap\ | /\ | AH\ | When \ | AH\ | ≥ 3%: sign match | …day-1 o→c in gap direction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:15 ET | 27/36 | 0.83 | 1.27 | 15/16 (miss: IBM +4.98% AH → −4.06% gap) | −1.35% | ||||||
| 16:30 ET | 29/36 | 0.85 | 1.19 | 18/20 | −0.45% | ||||||
| 17:00 ET | 31/36 | 0.88 | 1.16 | 21/22 | +0.09% |
The early AH move is a good direction and size estimate once it is ≥ 3%: the gap ran ~1.2× the 16:30 AH move. Small moves (< 3%) are coin-flips on sign; PLTR, AAPL and VRTX are in that zone tonight. 16:15 is the weakest snapshot, which fits tonight's VRTX (+4.6% on 7k shares at 16:09, flat by 16:16) and ON's 8-K (filed 16:15:56, after the 16:15 snapshot). Small n, one 8-week window, and a single market regime.
B. How do ρ ≥ 0.7 peers gap when a reporter gaps ≥ 5%? (scripts/research-calcs/2026-11-02-peer-gap-on-reaction-day.py; reporters with \|gap\| ≥ 5% in /api/events since 07-01; peers = TRAI 60d ρ ≥ 0.7 not reporting the same day.)
- 103 peer-events across 46 reporter events: same sign 96/103 (93%). Median peer \|gap\| 2.56%; median peer/reporter gap ratio 0.26.
- ρ 0.7–0.8: n 68, same sign 62, ratio 0.26, peer o→c in the reporter's direction +0.43%. ρ ≥ 0.8: n 35, same sign 34, ratio 0.32, +0.18%.
- Example: TXN −5.74% (07-23) → ON −3.76%, MCHP −4.48%, ADI −2.74%.
- Caveats: ρ is today's 60d value, so there is look-ahead. Market-wide gaps on the same days inflate the sign match, because I did not subtract SPY's gap. Pairs are not independent.
7. Analysis and calls
- Tuesday sizing: S-129 applies and the by-hand halving stays. At the close VIX9D/VIX ≈ 1.07 (≥ 1.05) with \|SPY\| 0.47% (< 0.5%), so S-129's trigger is met, barely on the SPY side. VIX 21.42 is below 22, so S-092's coded halving does not fire. VIX9D 22.91 is above 22 with Election Day inside its 9-day window. Call: keep the 15:00 report's by-hand 0.125% risk-per-trade override for Tuesday, and widen stops/targets for the range scale.
- LM day-2 ranking from the close: CMCSA ≈ TMUS (above VWAP, above OR high, at highs) > REGN ≈ SPOT (at VWAP) > AMZN (below VWAP, faded 1.1 pts) > PSX (below OR low, MPC BMO). PSX: keep the 15:00 rule (no entry before 10:00 ET, and then only above OR30 and VWAP). REGN: PFE (ρ 0.60) prints BMO with S-128 firing, so wait for the 10:00 PFE call to pass before an entry.
- No AMC print tonight puts gap risk on an LM name through a ρ ≥ 0.7 link. AAPL is a singleton. VRTX's nearest LM link is REGN at 0.61, and VRTX is flat AH. ON's ρ ≥ 0.7 peers (ADI/MCHP/TXN) are in no bucket. PLTR's cluster sits in the suspended SM bucket.
- ON is the big mover. Expected gap ~−7% [CALC] vs TRAI's 2.73% history. §6B suggests ADI/MCHP/TXN gap ~−2% [CALC]. None of them is a candidate. If the production run on Tuesday flags ON as an MR fade-long, note that §6A finds day-1 o→c in the gap direction ≈ −0.45% at 16:30 (slight fill). That is no edge. (Corrected in §9: the Synaptics cash terms are from 10-01 and were well received. The only new deal tonight is the small, cash-funded Ferric acquisition. So the AH drop is not explained by new M&A.)
- PLTR fade-long (MR) failed today: −3.13%, closing at 0.05 of the range. The print is a revenue/guide beat with weak bookings, and the AH move is unresolved (−0.2% at 16:32 inside a −3%/+5% range). A 15:55-flat system was not exposed. Tuesday: treat PLTR as event-day (S-085) and don't re-enter the fade-long before 10:00.
- AAPL: a top-line beat and a GM step-down, with guidance on the 5 PM call. AH −1% is inside the "no-information" zone (§6A). AAPL is in no bucket and has no ρ > 0.4 link, so nothing for TRAI.
8. Strategy implications (proposals; the 6 PM session decides)
- S-131 (new): use the ≥ 16:30 ET AH move as the reaction-gap estimate for AMC reporters when \|AH\| ≥ 3%. Expected gap ≈ 1.2 × AH, in the same direction. Ignore prints before 16:30 and thin first prints. §6A: 18/20 sign match at 16:30, ratio 1.19.
- S-132 (new): peer read-through. For ρ ≥ 0.7 peers of a reporter whose expected gap is ≥ 5%, tag an expected peer gap of 0.26–0.32 × the reporter's (93% same sign, §6B). Feed this into S-122/S-085's event-risk flag for LM/MR candidates, and into Tuesday's open review.
- Evidence for S-128: ON (implied ~10–11%, TRAI 2.73%, AH −6%) live; PFE 2.9× fires for Tuesday (AMGN 1.75× is close).
- Evidence for S-129: close values VIX9D/VIX 1.07 with \|SPY\| 0.47%. The trigger fires.
9. Research-partner consult (whiggity)
Folded (partial), ~16:45–17:10 ET. Only items I re-verified against primary sources are kept.
- Verified: the Synaptics revision is old news. onsemi/Synaptics amended the merger on 2026-10-01: $123/sh cash, ~$5.7B aggregate vs ~$7B under the June 25 stock deal, after an unsolicited competing proposal. Committed debt financing from Morgan Stanley; close still expected by mid-2027; FTC approval already received (onsemi, 2026-10-01). ON's Q3 release only repeats it. ON +4.18% on 10-01 and +6.01% on 10-02 (Yahoo daily, unofficial). §3/§7 corrected.
- Verified: the second 8-K is the Ferric agreement. $600M cash plus up to $175M in milestones, funded from cash, HSR required, expected close Q4 2026 (onsemi Ferric release; SEC 8-K).
- Election Day range proxy (whiggity asked about 10:00 entry slippage on Election Day; daily bars only, not intraday). Script
scripts/research-calcs/2026-11-02-election-day-range.py[CALC, Yahoo daily, unofficial]: Election Day range ÷ trailing-20 mean range, 2010–2024 (n = 8; PSX 7, SPOT 4): SPY mean 0.95 (median 0.93), PSX 0.98 (0.77), AMZN 0.79, REGN 1.10, CMCSA 0.90, TMUS 0.71, SPOT 0.83. Midterms only (2010/14/18/22, n = 4): SPY day-of 0.57, day-after 0.80; AMZN 0.68 → 1.26; PSX 0.69 → 1.06; REGN 1.38 → 1.15. Reading: Election Day itself has not been a wide-range day for these names (midterm days are quiet); the range expansion, if any, shows up on t+1 (Wed 11-04). Tiny n; a scale check, not an edge. It does not argue for widening Tuesday stops beyond the S-129 by-hand halving. - Not folded (unverified or after this writing): analyst attribution of ON's AH drop; PLTR/AAPL call content. See the 17:00 report.
10. Open questions
- AAPL guidance and the PLTR call: both after this writing (calls 5:00 PM ET). AH figures here are as of 16:32 ET.
- ~~ON's second 8-K (Items 1.01/7.01, ex-2.1): not read.~~ It is the Ferric merger agreement (§9).
- No post-close production run for 11-02 as of 16:09 ET. Tuesday's premarket run may still carry stale buckets if the deploy queue hasn't cleared.
- §6A/§6B: re-run with SPY-gap subtraction (B) and a longer window (A), via an AH data source with more than 60 days.
- Why the index sell-off sped up after 15:07 ET: no source found.
- MPC options-implied move: not found.