TRAI quant day-trading research

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TEAM: Atlassian

_Created 2026-11-02 10:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

Business

Team-collaboration software (Jira, Confluence, service management), sold mainly as seat-based cloud subscriptions. TRAI sector: Software. Cluster 22 with CRM (ρ 0.55). Also PLTR 0.68, NOW 0.60 (/api/correlations, 10-30).

Catalysts, guidance & news

  • FQ1 2027: Thu 2026-11-05 AMC, call 5:00 PM ET (Atlassian IR). Consensus is unverified (no reliable source found).
  • 2026-10-30: −6.07% to $191.72 (open $202.50 = high, low $188.43) (exa, 10-30). No company news found; this was the sector sell-off (IGV −3.4%). The AI-generated "explanations" online are inconsistent, so I'm not using them.

TRAI data

  • 10-30 short_momentum (suspended): relVol 1.78, mom5 −15.8%.
  • Last 4 prints: avg |gap| 13.7%; the last two were +20.9% and +31.7% (/api/events).
  • 2026-11-02 day 2: −2.18% at ~10:15 ET, below VWAP, traded below the OR30 low (Yahoo, unofficial).

Report links

2026-11-05 15:00 update

  • Prints tonight AMC (FQ1 FY27; call 5:00 PM ET) — IR event page still live (Atlassian IR [V-P]).
  • Pre-print (Yahoo ~15:08): last ≈ 183.81 vs 191.05 ≈ −3.8%. TRAI avg |gap| 13.71%; last two gaps +20.9% / +31.7%. Mild pre-print weakness does not shrink overnight gap risk. Report

2026-11-05 17:00 EST — beat, raised FY guide, negative AH indication

  • Issuer-distributed FQ1 FY27 release [V-P, earlier successful read]: revenue $1.772B (+24%), Cloud $1.302B (+31%), subscription ARR $6.812B (+23%), non-GAAP EPS $1.65, FCF $463M. Q2 revenue $1.825–1.835B (primary range; not secondary rounding $1.83–1.84B).
  • Prior guide verified: SEC-hosted August 6 issuer Exhibit 99.1 had FY27 ARR/revenue/Cloud growth 18.0%/13.0%/25.5%, Data Center −17%, non-GAAP operating margin 25.0%. New 18.5%/13.75%/26.0%, −16%, 25.5% are raises, not a guidance cut. FY ARR slower than Q1 23% is a different-period comparison. Old Q1 revenue guide $1.705–1.715B; actual exceeds midpoint 3.63% [CALC].
  • Nov 5 cash close $183.29 (−3.47%); Yahoo 5:05 PM EST AH bar $154.00 (−15.98% vs cash close). Sparse/delayed, not Friday gap. Secondary attribution to disappointing subscription outlook does not establish causality. Migration versus underlying demand contribution unresolved; ARR is not GAAP revenue.
  • No current bucket signal; 60d TEAM–NOW rho 0.71, TEAM–CRM 0.69 asOf Nov 4. Historical n=4 cannot establish a precise typical reaction. 17:00 report

2026-11-06 10:00 update — day-1 after AMC outlook scare

  • IR event page re-confirmed: FQ1 FY27 Nov 5, 2026 5:00 PM ET (Atlassian IR [V-P]).
  • Issuer print (prior KB): beat + raised FY guide; DC growth still negative but less negative than Aug guide (−16% vs −17%). CNBC [S-1] Nov 5 5:07 PM EST: dropped >15% AH on DC rev growth expected −14% FQ2 / −16% FY (CNBC).
  • TRAI indicated −15.35%; Yahoo day-1 ~−14.5% to −16.7% vs 183.29. S-006 — do not same-day MR-fade. Opposite path vs NET same night (S-014).
  • Source: 2026-11-06 10:00 report.

2026-11-06 17:00 update — day-1 postclose crush (SM suspended)

  • Yahoo Fri 153.68 (−16.15%) O 154.92 / H 165.31 / L 151.50; TRAI postclose: sole short_momentum (suspended), residZ −5.04, rangePos 0.158, relVol 2.62, gap −15.48%.
  • Catalyst still Thu AMC FQ1 FY27 beat + FY raise with ARR/Cloud moderation narrative (prior KB [V-P] Business Wire). S-006 do-not-fade; S-141 no SM reactivation; feeds S-151 cluster-11 vs Software book.
  • Source: 2026-11-06 17:00 report.