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Semiconductors & AI hardware / AI power (theme)

_Last updated 2026-11-06 09:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

What's in it (TRAI universe)

  • Equipment (WFE): LRCX, AMAT, KLAC, ASML — sell tools to fabs; revenue follows chipmaker capex. Foundry: TSM. Compute/AI: NVDA, AMD, AVGO, MRVL, ARM, INTC, QCOM. Memory/storage: MU (and WDC/STX in TRAI's Hardware sector). Analog/MCU: TXN, ADI, MCHP, ON. AI hardware/infra: ANET, VRT, SMCI, DELL. AI power: GEV, ETN (Industrials), VST, CEG (Utilities) (sector labels: TRAI /api/latest). Full theme note: AI power & data-center infrastructure.

Linkages (TRAI /api/correlations, 60 sessions to 2026-10-22)

  • Cluster 1 (24 names, avg ρ 0.588): ON, MCHP, TXN, ADI, CAT, ANET, VRT, GEV, ETN, AVGO, MU, TSM, ASML, KLAC, AMAT, LRCX, MRVL, ARM, AMD, INTC, NVDA, ORCL, SMCI, DELL. AI-power/grid and CAT trade with semis, not with their GICS sector.
  • Tightest pairs: AMAT–LRCX 0.914, LRCX–KLAC 0.879, TXN–ADI 0.875, AMAT–KLAC 0.866, KLAC–ASML 0.861, LRCX–ASML 0.843. Separate tight pairs: WDC–STX 0.828, CEG–VST 0.836.
  • Sector matrix: Semis intra 0.59; vs Consumer Staples −0.35; vs Telecom −0.27; vs Hardware +0.30; vs Crypto/high-beta +0.30.
  • Why: all have been bought as beneficiaries of data-center construction, though their earnings drivers differ — when they fall together "investors are trimming a theme rather than reassessing each company" (FinancialMarkets.com, 2026-10-22).

Event log

  • 2026-10-21/22: Lam's supply-constrained, China-light December guide (in line with consensus) + Meta's capex raise/new-share plan + oil spike → SOX −6.72%, SMH −5.99%; TXN beat-and-raise only −1.81% (report).
  • 2026-10-23 premarket: modest bounce (INTC +1.1%, AMD +0.94%, NVDA +0.51%) (TipRanks, 2026-10-23).

Upcoming catalysts (TRAI /api/events, asOf 2026-10-23)

  • STX 10-27 AMC · KLAC 10-28 AMC · VRT 10-28 BMO · GEV 10-28 BMO · MSFT & GOOGL 10-28 AMC (hyperscaler capex) · INTC 10-29 AMC · AMZN 10-29 AMC · AMD & ANET 11-03 AMC · AMAT 11-12 AMC · NVDA 11-17.

Historical reaction samples (n=4 each; not an established typical reaction)

  • Earnings gaps are large: LRCX avg |gap| 9.73%, INTC 10.46%, MU 10.09%, AMD 8.94%, ANET 8.87%, VRT 8.08%, AMAT 7.30%, AVGO 7.34%, KLAC 5.66%, NVDA 3.14% (last 4 each; TRAI /api/events).
  • Engine context: short-momentum replay is negative in transitional/choppy regimes (TRAI /api/scorecard; see report §8).

2026-10-29 16:00 update (report)

  • 10-29: SMH −1.06%, semis −2.0% (Reuters). MRVL −13.24% on Lumentum deal talks plus the GOOGL read-through. MU −4.98%, SMCI −3.85%, DELL −3.69%, NVDA −0.80%. INTC (10-29 AMC): Q3 beat (EPS $0.52, DCAI +78%) but Q4 guide $15.0–16.0B (vs ~$17.1B), GM 38%; after hours −18.1%. Cluster-1 gap risk Fri: MU 0.71, MRVL 0.68, SMCI 0.65, ETN 0.60, STX 0.58, ORCL 0.52, VRT 0.50 (S-067). Storage: storage.

Company notes

LRCX · KLAC · AMAT · ASML · TXN · NVDA · AMD · MU · INTC · WDC · GEV · META (customer/capex) · VRT · ANET · AI power theme

2026-10-23 14:00 update — hyperscaler read-through

  • Hyperscaler reaction days can move AI hardware by ±5–10% even though the 60-day ρ is low (GOOGL–NVDA 0.12, MSFT–NVDA 0.22, AMZN–VRT 0.32). The sign depends on how the capex number is read, not on the reporter's own direction. Example: 2026-02-06, AMZN −5.55% while VRT was +10.03%. See the 14:00 report §4.2, megacap-cloud and S-039.

2026-10-29 17:00 update

  • INTC follow-up: Reuters says the Israel fab explosion costs ~$600M of revenue over Q4/Q1; after hours −16.7% at 17:02. Cluster-1 after hours: VRT −4.4%, MU −2.8%, NVDA −1.4%.
  • Source: 2026-10-29 17:00 report.

2026-10-30 09:00 update

2026-10-30 11:00 update — the rout after the open

  • By 11:05 ET SMH −6.13% and SOXX −7.64% were below their OR30 lows while INTC (−28%) was back above VWAP and DELL/HPQ were bouncing. Analog/MCU (ON, MCHP), QCOM and AVGO were making new lows, MU held above VWAP (memory pricing is a tailwind for MU). Drivers: INTC's PC warning plus AMZN-led AI-capex doubts (Reuters via Investing.com; MarketWatch).
  • Next week: ON 11-02, AMD/ANET/SMCI 11-03, ARM/QCOM 11-04, MCHP 11-05 (all AMC). See S-085/S-086.
  • Source: 2026-10-30 11:00 report.

2026-10-30 12:00 update

  • ON prints Mon 11-02 AMC, the first of the cluster-1/analog prints. At 12:02 ET ON −5.9%, MCHP −4.8%, ADI −4.2%, TXN −3.5%, SMH −6.9%. ON's TRAI print history is tame (0.52 ATR avg gap, 100% fill), so the pre-print sympathy drop is already twice that average (S-089).
  • 2026-10-30 12:00 — Monday AMC prints

2026-10-30 16:00 update (whiggity consult, §9)

  • ON reports Mon 11-02 AMC (5:00 PM ET call), not BMO as whiggity said twice (onsemi IR, 2026-10-15).
  • NXPI is not a Monday print: NXP already reported Q3 on Tue 10-27, 4:10 PM EDT: revenue $3.79B (+19% y/y, +8% q/q), non-GAAP EPS $4.20, automotive $2.07B (+13% y/y), Q4 revenue guide $3.75–3.95B, new $5B buyback (NXP IR, 2026-10-27). Useful auto/industrial context for ON's print, not a new event.
  • China PMIs (gap risk for cluster 1 / ETN per whiggity, untested): NBS official PMI Sat 10-31 09:30 Beijing = Fri 21:30 EDT (NBS 2026 calendar); Caixin/RatingDog mfg PMI Mon 11-02 09:45 Beijing = Sun 20:45 EST (estimated; Finance Calendar).
  • 4:21 PM run: ASML, NVDA, AVGO, AMAT, ANET (plus ETN) in mean reversion, i.e. one correlated cluster-1 bet (S-078). Print-distance question → S-106.
  • Source: 2026-10-30 16:00 report §9, §10.

2026-11-02 12:00 update (day 2 after the 10-30 rout)

  • All names gapped up ~0.7–2.2% and faded; SMH flat, below VWAP. Split by business: AI compute/memory/equipment (AMD, MU, SMCI, LRCX −2 to −3%) vs analog/handset (ON +2.3%, QCOM +1.9%). Fade-longs ASML/AMAT/ANET did not bounce. → S-124.
  • 5-year replay: no day-after bounce after SMH ≤ −5% (n 23; SMH o→c +0.13%, AMAT −0.39%). → S-011 update.
  • Memory driver: CXMT Q3 (+613% revenue) and 4F² server DRAM plan; memory costs also pressure networking/system margins (ANET, SMCI).
  • 2026-11-02 12:00 — semis day 2, fade-longs fail, compute/memory vs analog split

2026-11-02 14:00 update

  • Afternoon fade: SMH from +1.26% open to −1.62% at 14:06 ET; AMD −5.7% and SMCI −6.0% into Tue AMC prints, while TXN +1.8% (compute vs analog split continues, S-124). ON prints tonight with options pricing ~4× TRAI's historical gap (S-128).
  • 2026-11-02 14:00 report

2026-11-02 16:00 update

  • SMH −2.71% at the close. ON AH −5.9% (16:32 ET) on a beat above the guide midpoint plus a small cash Ferric deal. The cause is unsourced; the Synaptics cash revision is from 10-01, not new (report §9). ρ ≥ 0.7 peers ADI/MCHP/TXN: expected gap ~−2% [CALC, S-132], though AH quotes are flat to green. Report

2026-11-02 17:00 update

  • ON AH −2.44% at 17:05 ET (from −5.9% at 16:32), so the S-132 peer estimate (ADI/MCHP/TXN ~−2%) no longer applies. TXN +0.77% AH, SMH +0.39%. AMD/ADI are in the suspended SM bucket in the 16:49 run; AMD/SMCI/ANET print Tue AMC. Report

2026-11-03 09:00 update

  • Pre-market rebound after a ~12% three-day slide: SMH +2.9%, LRCX +4.8%, SNDK +4.5%, AMD +4.3%, MU +3.7%, ADI +3.4% (Barchart; TipRanks). AAPL's 'memory pricing unprecedented' call comment: headwind for device makers, support for memory. AMD/SMCI/ANET print tonight.
  • Report

2026-11-05 15:00 update

  • QCOM printed AMC 11-04: handset chip sales −26% to $5.14B and a light Q1 guide; reaction day ~−9% (Yahoo). The 08:58 indicatedGapPct −11.8% was real. Cluster-12 mate APP instead +~30% on its own beat — ρ clustering ≠ same-day catalyst co-move. QCOM
  • Tonight AMC — MCHP (cluster 1): Q2FY27 call 5:00 PM ET (Microchip IR). Pre-print ~−12 to −15% into 5.7% avg |gap| history. Peer ρ: ON 0.82, TXN 0.81. Overnight gap-risk flag for cluster-1 analogs; not a live post-15:00 entry. MCHP · report

2026-11-05 17:00 EST — MCHP quarter beat does not settle next-quarter risk

  • MCHP issuer FQ2 revenue $1,621.5M, non-GAAP EPS $0.97 beat old company guidance; Q3 midpoint sales about −1% QoQ, EPS midpoint $0.91, with $53M infrequent Q2 sales not recurring (MCHP). Design wins/book-to-bill are management claims, not verified end-demand.
  • Cash-session stress: SMH −11.21% in Nov 5 4:49:57 PM EST latest. MCHP cash $64.85 (−13.92%), 5:05 PM EST Yahoo AH bar $61.75 (−4.78% vs cash close), not an executable quote or Friday opening gap.
  • MCHP SM remains suspended; ON/TXN rho 0.82/0.81 (Nov 4) identifies shared risk, not a signed forecast. Do not infer an established typical reaction from four past prints. 17:00 report

2026-11-06 09:00 update — indicated bounce; SM still suspended

  • Thu SMH −11.21% (TRAI latest indices). Fri premarket TRAI indicatedGapPct on SM residuals: TSM +7.28%, KLAC +8.81%, AMAT +9.1%, ADI +2.93%, TXN +2.23%, MCHP +1.02%. Short_momentum status suspended (36 rows) — bounce ≠ reactivation.
  • Secondary [S-1] Nov 6: Investing.com chip rebound; CNBC midterms/data-center narrative.
  • Cluster 1 avgRho 0.64 asOf Nov 5 (includes TSM/KLAC/AMAT). Light company notes: KLAC · AMAT.
  • Source: 2026-11-06 09:00 Fri open.

2026-11-06 10:00 — MCHP day-1 after soft guide

  • MCHP still deeply dislocated (~−10% to −13% vs Thu close) while SM residual remains suspended. S-006: do not same-day MR-fade. Report.