SHOP — Shopify

_Created 2026-10-30 17:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

Business

Commerce platform for merchants: subscription solutions (plans, apps) and merchant solutions (payments, lending, shipping). Q2 2026 revenue was $3.58B, of which subscription $802M and merchant $2.78B. GMV $115.6B (+32%) (Shopify IR, 2026-08-05).

Catalysts, guidance & news

• Q3 2026 print: Tue 2026-11-03 BMO, call 8:30 ET (Shopify IR, 2026-10-06).
• Q3 guide (given 08-05): revenue growth in the low-thirties %; gross profit growth mid-to-high twenties %; opex 33–34% of revenue; SBC $150M; FCF margin high-teens to low-twenties (same 08-05 release).
• Q2 net income of $1.50B included a $1.06B after-tax mark-to-market gain on equity investments. Watch the operating line, not the headline net income. Q2 repurchases were $1.42B.

TRAI data

• 2026-10-30: −5.63% final (the official run showed −6.77% from a stale ~12:05 bar), relVol 1.36 → mean_reversion fade-long in both runs. After hours −0.15%.
• Earnings reaction (last 4): avg |gap| 11.39% (2.36 ATR), continuation 50%, avg day-1 in the gap direction −2.45%. Gaps: 2025-11-04 −5.7%, 2026-02-11 +9.2% (c/c −6.7%), 2026-05-05 −9.0%, 2026-08-05 +21.7% (TRAI /api/events).
• Correlations: cluster 11 with PINS and SNAP (avg ρ 0.51). Highest: SNAP 0.53, APP 0.53, AFRM 0.53, MSFT 0.51, PLTR 0.49.

Notes

• A Monday MR entry has the print one session away (S-085/S-106). Do not hold it into Tuesday BMO without an explicit event-risk decision.

Report links

• 2026-10-30 17:00: stale postclose run, corrected buckets

2026-11-02 10:00 update

• 10-30 drop was sympathy with the AMZN/INTC AI-spend sell-off; no company news (StockStory).
• Q3 consensus (aggregated, approximate): revenue ~$3.74–3.75B, EPS ~$0.45–0.47, GMV ~$118.7B (MarketWatch preview).
• ~10:15 ET: +1.25%, above VWAP. APP ρ 0.53, and APP is also bouncing.
• Report

2026-11-02 16:00 update

• Tue BMO. Implied ±12.1% (Benzinga) / ±14.0% (earnings-watcher) vs TRAI 11.39% (ratio 1.06–1.23 [CALC]). Closed −0.81% Monday.
• Report

2026-11-03 09:00 update

• Q3 (BMO): rev $3.74B (+32%) vs ~$3.75B est, subscription $836M vs $850.2M, GMV $119.15B vs $120.08B, adj EPS $0.49 beat; Q4 guide revenue growth low-thirties % (Shopify; Investing.com). Pre-market −15.9% (09:10), beyond the ±12–14% implied.
• Report