TRAI — Research — PANW — Palo Alto Networks

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_Last updated 2026-10-23 11:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

Network, cloud and SOC security platform.

2026-10-21/22: PHP critical-flaw disclosures; NSA/FBI urged fixes; MS (Marshall) sees "tactical longs" and is Overweight PANW with a $410 PT (CNBC, 2026-10-22).
2026-10-23: +5.8% at ~11:15 ET after a flat open (Yahoo). No catalyst specific to today found.

Sector (TRAI): Software. Oct 22: +2.21%, relVol 1.43, ATR 5.20%, beta60 1.76, indicated gap -0.40%, signals: none (TRAI /api/latest).
Next earnings: 2026-11-19 unknown (estimated), gap risk None (TRAI /api/events, asOf 2026-10-23).
Typical earnings reaction (last 4): avg |gap| 4.49% (0.95 ATR), max |gap| 8.53%, gap fill rate 0%, continuation 75%, avg day-1 move in gap direction +2.85% (TRAI /api/events).
Recent events: 2025-11-19 AMC: gap -0.89%, day-1 -6.59%, close-close -7.42%, EPS surprise 4.36%; 2026-02-17 AMC: gap -8.53%, day-1 +1.87%, close-close -6.82%, EPS surprise 9.88%; 2026-06-02 AMC: gap -4.10%, day-1 -1.60%, close-close -5.64%, EPS surprise 6.62%; 2026-09-01 AMC: gap -4.44%, day-1 -5.06%, close-close -9.28%, EPS surprise 4.35% (TRAI /api/events).
Correlation cluster 5 (avg ρ 0.633, 60d): PLTR, DDOG, NET, ZS, PANW, CRWD (TRAI /api/correlations, asOf 2026-10-22).
Highest 60d correlations: CRWD 0.91, ZS 0.77, NET 0.73, DDOG 0.55, SNOW 0.50 (TRAI /api/correlations).

Closed −3.86%, below OR30 (Yahoo). CHKP reports Mon 11-02 BMO. Historically PANW agreed in sign with CHKP's reaction on only 4/9 inferred print days (my calc; FTNT 8/9). whiggity expects a read-through (untested). Intraday test → S-104 extension.
2026-10-30 16:00: close wrap, regime knife-edge, weekend energy, Monday BMO §6(a), §9

CHKP Q3 (BMO): revenue $670M (−1%, slight miss), subscriptions +11%, "recovery taking longer than anticipated"; CHKP −6% pre-market. PANW +1.2% and CRWD +2.7% pre-market, i.e., no sympathy sell-off, consistent with the weak historical read-through (4/9).
2026-11-02 09:00 report §5a