CEG — Constellation Energy

_Last updated 2026-11-06 10:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

Business

Largest US nuclear generation fleet; merchant power and retail supply, sold as a data-center power supplier (Kalkine, 2026-10-23).

Catalysts, guidance & news

• −5.74% Oct 22 with the AI-power group (TRAI); not in a bucket today.
• Oct 23 12:05 ET: +0.14% after a −3.12% low at 9:35 (Yahoo 5m).
• Next earnings Mon Nov 9 BMO, call 9 AM ET (TRAI /api/events; aktiencheck, per search summary).
• Replay (my calc): short_momentum n6, mean +1.19% — anecdote.

TRAI data (2026-10-23 8:53 AM ET premarket run; daily stats = Oct 22 session)

• Sector (TRAI): Materials/Utilities. Oct 22: -5.74%, relVol 0.97, ATR 6.33%, beta60 1.6, residualZ -1.4, indicated gap +0.03%, signals: none (TRAI /api/latest).
• Next earnings: 2026-11-09 BMO, gap risk none (outside 5-session window) (TRAI /api/events, asOf 2026-10-23).
• Typical earnings reaction (last 4): avg |gap| 3.60% (0.81 ATR), max |gap| 4.83%, gap fill rate 100%, continuation 25%, avg day-1 move in gap direction -3.18% (TRAI /api/events).
• Recent events: 2025-11-07 BMO: gap -4.50%, day-1 +6.83%, close-close +2.02%, EPS surprise -2.57%; 2026-02-24 BMO: gap +1.23%, day-1 +5.12%, close-close +6.41%, EPS surprise 2.41%; 2026-05-11 BMO: gap +3.84%, day-1 -4.95%, close-close -1.30%, EPS surprise 5.3%; 2026-08-06 BMO: gap +4.83%, day-1 -6.05%, close-close -1.52%, EPS surprise 11.73% (TRAI /api/events).
• Correlation cluster 18 (avg ρ 0.836, 60d): CEG, VST (TRAI /api/correlations, asOf 2026-10-22).
• Highest 60d correlations: VST 0.84, GEV 0.59, ETN 0.55, VRT 0.49, MRVL 0.49 (TRAI /api/correlations).

Sector note

• ai-power-infrastructure

Report links

• 2026-10-23 12:00 — AI power, industrials, healthcare

2026-11-06 09:00 update — peer gap-risk after VST BMO raise

• Still set: Mon 2026-11-09 BMO (TRAI /api/events asOf Nov 6; gapRisk imminent; last-4 avg |gap| 3.60% / 0.81 ATR; fill 100% descriptive n=4).
• Correlations asOf Nov 5: cluster 23 with VST, avgRho 0.845 (S-132 / S-004).
• VST printed BMO Nov 6 with Ongoing Ops Adj EBITDA raise/narrow + 2027 initiation after ~−19% two-day crush (S-141). TRAI 8:58 AM indicatedGapPct CEG +3.02% (no current bucket signal). Guide raise does not by itself clear peer |gap| sizing into Monday — NEEDS DATA (optional S-143).
• Source: 2026-11-06 09:00 Fri open report · VST.

2026-11-06 10:00 update — Friday sympathy into Mon print

• Yahoo ~10:10–10:31 ET: ~249.3 vs 239.65 (~+4.0%) while VST ~+7% in webcast hour.
• TRAI events asOf Nov 6: next 2026-11-09 BMO, gapRisk imminent, isEstimate false, avg |gap| 3.60%. Call 9:00 AM ET remains [S-1] (Constellation IR events page HTTP 403 this hour — BMO wire not re-confirmed from issuer HTML).
• S-004 / S-132 / S-141 / S-143: peer gap-risk stays sized; Friday sympathy ≠ Monday open print.
• Source: 2026-11-06 10:00 report · VST.