VST — Vistra

_Last updated 2026-11-06 10:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

Business

Independent power producer: gas, nuclear and coal generation plus a retail electricity business; traded as an AI data-center power supplier (Kalkine, 2026-10-23).

Catalysts, guidance & news

• −9.81% Oct 22 in the AI-power unwind (TRAI); Morgan Stanley kept Overweight, PT trimmed $227 → $226 — not a downgrade (Kalkine, above). No company-specific negative news found.
• Oct 23 12:05 ET: −0.08% after a −3.31% low in the 9:35 bar; −2.16% at 10:00 (Yahoo 5m). In short_momentum, no clusterFlag despite ρ 0.60 to GEV (S-023).
• Next earnings Fri Nov 6, call 10 AM ET (Vistra IR, 2026-09-29).
• Unverified secondary notes: Raymond James PT $176 (Strong Buy kept); HSBC initiated Buy, PT $190.
• Replay (my calc, TRAI /api/scorecard): short_momentum n5, mean −1.59% — anecdote.

TRAI data (2026-10-23 8:53 AM ET premarket run; daily stats = Oct 22 session)

• Sector (TRAI): Materials/Utilities. Oct 22: -9.81%, relVol 1.69, ATR 7.13%, beta60 1.5, residualZ -2.84, indicated gap -0.59%, signals: short_momentum (TRAI /api/latest).
• Next earnings: 2026-11-06 BMO, gap risk none (outside 5-session window) (TRAI /api/events, asOf 2026-10-23).
• Typical earnings reaction (last 4): avg |gap| 1.49% (0.3 ATR), max |gap| 3.31%, gap fill rate 75%, continuation 50%, avg day-1 move in gap direction -2.60% (TRAI /api/events).
• Recent events: 2025-11-07 BMO: gap -3.31%, day-1 +7.00%, close-close +3.46%, EPS surprise -10.54%; 2026-02-27 BMO: gap -1.03%, day-1 -0.63%, close-close -1.66%, EPS surprise -76.52%; 2026-05-08 BMO: gap +0.68%, day-1 -4.70%, close-close -4.05%, EPS surprise 53.35%; 2026-08-10 BMO: gap +0.94%, day-1 +0.68%, close-close +1.62%, EPS surprise -54.2% (TRAI /api/events).
• Correlation cluster 18 (avg ρ 0.836, 60d): CEG, VST (TRAI /api/correlations, asOf 2026-10-22).
• Highest 60d correlations: CEG 0.84, GEV 0.60, ETN 0.53, ORCL 0.51, VRT 0.43 (TRAI /api/correlations).

Sector note

• ai-power-infrastructure

whiggity consult (12:00 ET)

• Oct 22 bar (Yahoo daily): O $153.00, H $154.27, L $139.10, C $140.83, vol 12.45M; close location 0.11. Peers TLN (60d ρ 0.81) and NRG (0.79) fell −7.81% / −5.43% (my calc). whiggity's drivers (PJM capacity auctions, FERC co-location rulings, spark spreads) are unverified (report §8).

2026-11-05 16:00 update (into Fri BMO)

• Still set: Fri 2026-11-06 BMO; call 10:00 AM ET (Vistra IR, 2026-09-29) [V-P].
• Path: 11-04 C 120.29 (−13.83%, residZ −6.84, SM suspended bucket) → 11-05 Yahoo last 112.95 (−6.10%) → ~−19% two-day into BMO (16:00 report).
• TRAI last-4 avg |gap| only 1.49% (0.30 ATR) — history understates overnight risk after the multi-day crush (feeds S-141). Avg day-1 in gap dir −2.60%; fill 75%.
• Peer: CEG ρ 0.85 (cluster 19); CEG 11-05 ≈ −2.5%. VST–NEE ρ −0.31 (merchant vs regulated split). No SM reactivation while short_momentum is suspended.

Report links

• 2026-10-23 12:00 — AI power, industrials, healthcare

2026-11-06 09:00 update — BMO print after S-141 crush

• Primary [V-P]: Vistra Q3 2026 results. NI $1,140M (unrealized hedge gain $559M); Ongoing Ops Adj EBITDA $2,378M (>50% YoY vs $1,581M); op rev $6,347M vs $4,971M.
• Raised/narrowed 2026 Ongoing Ops Adj EBITDA $7.1–$7.5B and FCFbG $4.3–$4.7B; initiated 2027 EBITDA $7.7–$8.5B / FCFbG $4.3–$5.1B. Prior 2026 midpoint on IR page: UNKNOWN.
• Board +$1.5B buybacks (~$2.5B auth remaining, YE 2028); Cogentrix ~5,500 MW closed Oct 2026; Pulaski 405 MW (Microsoft PPA); Deer Creek 100 MW; 20y 207 MW PPA New Era/Odessa. Hedged ~100%/98%/78% gen volumes 2026/27/28 as of Oct 30.
• Webcast 10:00 AM ET Nov 6.
• TRAI premarket 8:58 AM ET: still SM suspended residual; indicatedGapPct +5.86%. Secondary Investing.com ~5–5.7% pre-open [S-1].
• S-141 evidence: crush then actual guide raise — no SM reactivation. Peer CEG ρ 0.845 (cluster 23) into Mon 11-09 BMO (S-132/S-004).
• Source: 2026-11-06 09:00 Fri open report.

2026-11-06 10:00 update — webcast-hour reaction path

• Webcast began 10:00 AM ET Nov 6 per issuer (Vistra IR [V-P]).
• Yahoo ~10:10–10:31 ET: ~120.9–121.2 vs prior close 112.89 (~+7.1% to +7.4%), after 8:58 TRAI indicatedGapPct +5.86%.
• Still carries SM residual tag under suspended status — no reactivation (S-141 / S-143).
• Peer CEG ~+4% same window (ρ 0.845, cluster 23) into Mon 11-09 BMO.
• Source: 2026-11-06 10:00 report.