COIN — Coinbase

_Last updated 2026-11-06 16:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

Business

Crypto exchange, custody and USDC revenue share; tied to crypto prices and volumes.

Catalysts, guidance & news

• 2026-10-29 AMC. HOOD (ρ 0.73) reports two sessions earlier — its crypto line is read-through.
• TRAI EPS-surprise % values are distorted by near-zero estimates (see strategy S-034).

TRAI data (2026-10-23 8:53 AM ET premarket run; daily stats = Oct 22 session)

• Sector (TRAI): Financials. Oct 22: -4.51%, relVol 0.83, ATR 5.98%, beta60 2.65, indicated gap -0.39% (TRAI /api/latest).
• Next earnings: 2026-10-29 AMC, gap risk elevated (TRAI /api/events, asOf 2026-10-23).
• Typical earnings reaction (last 4): avg |gap| 5.30% (0.81 ATR), max |gap| 8.94%, gap fill rate 25%, continuation 75%, avg day-1 move in gap direction +1.40% (TRAI /api/events).
• Recent events: 2025-10-30 AMC: gap +2.28%, day-1 +2.32%, close-close +4.65%, EPS surprise 32.31%; 2026-02-12 AMC: gap +8.94%, day-1 +6.91%, close-close +16.46%, EPS surprise -364.89%; 2026-05-07 AMC: gap -3.58%, day-1 +8.12%, close-close +4.25%, EPS surprise -3458.88%; 2026-07-30 AMC: gap -6.41%, day-1 -4.47%, close-close -10.59%, EPS surprise -487.47% (TRAI /api/events).
• Correlation cluster 9 (avg ρ 0.666, 60d): MARA, RIOT, HOOD, MSTR, COIN (TRAI /api/correlations, asOf 2026-10-22).
• Highest 60d correlations: MSTR 0.87, HOOD 0.73, MARA 0.62, RIVN 0.60, SOFI 0.58 (TRAI /api/correlations).

2026-10-30 09:00 update

• Premarket −7.53% (09:17) after Binance disclosed a record $6.36B theft (CoinDesk, 2026-10-30; Investing.com, 2026-10-30). Miners: MARA −4.7%, RIOT −6.4%, CLSK −6.5%.

Report links

• 2026-10-23 13:00 — payments & fintech

2026-10-29 17:00 update

• Q3 2026 (10-29 AMC): EPS $2.51 vs −$0.26 est.; revenue $1.2B (in line); no guide; USDC held $22B (Investing.com). After hours −3.48% along with BTC weakness (MSTR −3.2%, HOOD −3.9%).

• 2026-10-29 17:00 — postclose movers & Friday gap risk
• 2026-10-30 09:00 — premarket rotation, INTC/crypto shocks, BMO prints

2026-11-06 10:00 update — MR fade-long under STRESS

• On TRAI 8:58 AM ET premarket run as mean_reversion_fade_long under regime stress (VIX 26.92, VIX9D/VIX 1.213). Financials MR fade-long; Yahoo ~-1.8% by ~10:31.
• LiveRules still mean R -0.052 / TARGET 0 — not validated edge (feeds S-144). Screening only.
• Source: 2026-11-06 10:00 report.

2026-11-06 16:00 update — STRESS close; crypto β; residual vs BTC open

• On 8:58 run as MR fade-long (z1d −2.23, residualZ +1.68) under stress — Financials label but cluster 8 crypto (COIN–MSTR 0.89, COIN–HOOD 0.81; COIN–BAC only 0.08).
• Yahoo Fri close ~−1.51% (134.76) with MSTR ~−0.29%; HOOD ~+3.21% diverged inside cluster 8. BTC-USD ~75.8k on Yahoo daily pull; ETF-outflow / rout context (CoinDesk, 2026-11-06) [S].
• Auditor open: does residual include a BTC regressor / weekend BTC look-ahead into Mon? Feeds S-150 companion + S-144. Source: 16:00 report.