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COP — ConocoPhillips

_Last updated 2026-11-05 16:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

Business

Pure upstream E&P: Lower 48 (Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken), Alaska, Canada, Norway, LNG interests. No refining, so the most direct crude exposure among the majors.

Catalysts, guidance & news

  • Q3 2026 results: Thu 2026-11-05 BMO; call 12:00 PM ET (ConocoPhillips IR, 2026-11-05) [V-P].
  • EPS $3.34 / adj $3.27; NI $4.0B / adj $3.9B; CFO $7.2B; distributions $3.4B ($2.4B buybacks + $1.0B dividend).
  • Dividend +11% to $0.93/share (payable Dec 1, record Nov 16).
  • Production 2,302 MBOED; realized $61.40/BOE (+32% YoY); Q4 prod guide 2.32–2.36 MMBOED; FY capex/opex guidance unchanged.
  • Same-day Yahoo last 135.40 vs TRAI 11-04 close 136.94 ≈ −1.12% on a −4.4% SPY / −2.9% XLE session — constructive print, muted equity reaction (16:00 report).
  • Peer AMC tonight: EOG, DVN (cluster 4). OXY AMC 11-09.

TRAI data

  • 11-04 session (SM suspended bucket): close 136.94, pctChg −5.17%, residualZ −1.89, relVol 1.85, indicatedGapPct +1.29% (/api/latest 08:58 ET 11-05 run).
  • Typical earnings reaction (last 4): avg |gap| 2.15% (0.77 ATR), fill 50%, continuation 50%, avg day-1 in gap dir ≈ 0 (/api/events).
  • Correlation cluster 4 (avg ρ 0.745): with XOM/CVX/EOG/DVN/OXY/MPC/PSX; COP–EOG 0.938, COP–DVN 0.87, COP–XOM 0.89, COP–OXY 0.90 (/api/correlations, asOf 2026-11-04).

Linkages

  • See energy. SM reactivation not proposed while bucket suspended.

Report links