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Energy

_Last updated 2026-10-30 09:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

Linkages (TRAI /api/correlations, 60 sessions to 2026-10-22)

  • Cluster 2 — integrated/E&P/refiners (avg ρ 0.713): MPC, PSX, XOM, CVX, COP, OXY, EOG, DVN. MPC–PSX 0.886, EOG–DVN 0.881.
  • Cluster 15 — oilfield services (avg ρ 0.798): SLB, HAL (SLB–HAL ≈ 0.80).
  • Energy vs Semis −0.12, vs Software −0.11 (sectorMatrix) — energy has been a diversifier vs the AI trade.
  • Beta: XOM beta60 −1.07, CVX −0.88 vs SPY (TRAI /api/latest, 10-22 data); −0.97 / −0.78 and COP −0.85 on 10-23 data — they have traded inverse to the index over 60 sessions.
  • Why (Yahoo daily, my calc): SPY–WTI (CL=F) daily ρ is −0.40 in 2026 YTD vs +0.03 to +0.35 in 2019–2025: oil trades as a risk-off shock this year. Majors' ρ with WTI 2026: XOM 0.58, CVX 0.57, COP 0.63; beta 0.25–0.34 (17:00 report §2).
  • Company notes: XOM, CVX, COP, SLB, HAL.

Macro driver

  • 2026-10-22: Brent +4% to $113.17 on reports of possible US/Israeli strikes on Iran after the midterms (Yahoo/Stocktwits, 2026-10-22). Brent was at its highest since early May in premarket Oct 23 (Investopedia via Yahoo, 2026-10-23). XLE +8.4% over 20 days vs SPY (TRAI /api/macro).
  • 2026-10-23: Brent futures +2.6% to $116.13, highest since Apr 30; WTI ~$102.6. Houthis keep targeting Saudi Arabia (CNBC, 2026-10-23). Aramco ordered evacuation of its Dhahran HQ on Oct 22 (Reuters via Investing.com, 2026-10-23).
  • 2026-10-23 settle: Dec Brent $116.72 (+3.14%), highest since Apr 29; WTI $103.27 (+3.8%); Brent +6% on the week. Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, a tanker spill off the UAE (Reuters via Investing.com, 2026-10-23); expectations the US resumes strikes on Iran (CNBC, 2026-10-23). ING calls its $80 Q4 Brent forecast "unattainable" (WSJ, 2026-10-23).
  • Contract note: the $116 is the Dec-26 contract (Yahoo BZZ26.NYM), which last trades Fri Oct 30, 2026 (futuresclock). Yahoo BZ=F has already rolled to Jan-27 (~$111). A Dec–Jan spread of ~$4.7 means steep backwardation (report §3).
  • _Note: the 09:00 ET version of this file was corrupted by a shell-quoting error (dollar amounts lost, stray script text). Repaired at 11:00 ET from the source links above._

Event log

  • 2026-10-20 BMO, HAL: gap +0.97%, close-close +1.85% (TRAI /api/events).
  • 2026-10-23 BMO, SLB: EPS ex-charges $0.64 vs ~$0.62; revenue $9.45B; TRAI indicated +2.00% at 8:53 ET; opened +0.8%, +6.8% by ~11:15 ET (SLB note; energy services).
  • 2026-10-23 ~11:15 ET: COP +4.35% (Yahoo).
  • 2026-10-20, XOM Joliet (275 kbpd): 50 kbpd catalytic reformer shut, no restart date (Reuters via BOE Report, 2026-10-21).
  • 2026-10-23 close: XOM +2.79%, CVX +2.88%, COP +3.55%, OXY +2.67%, EOG +3.21%, DVN +4.49%, SLB +7.08%, HAL +5.21%; refiners MPC −0.45%, PSX −0.51% (crude-cost squeeze). XLE +2.60%. Postclose TRAI signals: XOM/CVX/COP mean_reversion fade-short (TRAI /api/latest 4:34 PM ET).

Fade-short evidence (17:00 report §5.4)

  • TRAI replay, energy MR fade-shorts in transitional regimes: n 22, −0.97%/trade, hit 23%, t −3.28; by day: 10 days, −0.94%, t −2.72, 8 of 10 negative. On 7 of 10 of those signal days WTI was up ≥ 2.7% (my calc, net of 5 bp). → S-059.
  • Long history (2016+, n 103) after XLE ≥ +2% & WTI ≥ +3%: next-day o→c XOM −0.29%, CVX −0.17%, COP −0.55%, XLE −0.34%; but ~0 in 2026 (n 12) and on Mondays (n 18) (Yahoo, my calc).

Upcoming (TRAI /api/events)

  • FCX 10-27 BMO (Materials) · PSX 10-28 BMO · XOM & CVX Fri 10-30 BMO (XOM call 9:30 ET, CVX call 11:00 ET; both verified on IR) · MPC 11-03 BMO · COP 11-05 BMO (call 12:00 ET, verified)/EOG/DVN 11-05 · OXY 11-09.
  • Dec Brent (BZZ26) last trading day: Fri 10-30 — same morning as XOM/CVX.
  • Consensus (MarketBeat, accessed 2026-10-23; secondary): XOM $4.10, CVX $4.86, COP $3.05.

2026-10-29 17:00 update

  • XOM (EPS est. $4.12) and CVX ($4.87) report Fri BMO; after hours +0.7% each; TRAI avg |gap| ~1.2–1.3%, which usually fills. Not in today's buckets.
  • Source: 2026-10-29 17:00 report.

2026-10-30 09:00 update

2026-10-30 13:00 update

  • WTI fut. ~$104.9 (+2.85%); Dec Brent (expiring today) $117.62, Jan $113.58 at 10:45 GMT; tanker hit in the Strait of Hormuz (UKMTO); US reiterated it may resume hostilities with Iran after the midterms; Brent/WTI on course for ~14–15% October gains (Investify, 2026-10-30; The National, 2026-10-30). Cluster 2 +1.4% to +2.4% at ~13:11 ET.
  • Cross-asset: oil up → hike odds up → gold/miners down (2026 GDX–WTI ρ −0.22). A weekend escalation or de-escalation would move the two in opposite directions on Monday.
  • Curve and policy (whiggity, checked): CL1–CL6 backwardation $11.34 (≈10.8%) vs $10.23 at the 10-29 close, front-led. DOE's 10-29 awards completed the 172M-bbl SPR exchange (DOE, 2026-10-29), so a new pre-midterm release is speculation. VLCC rates are off their peak (Breakwave, 2026-10-23). Tankers were not bid 10-30 (FRO −0.2%, STNG −2.9%); E&Ps FANG +2.6% / XOP +1.8%; airlines DAL/UAL −3.3%.
  • Source: 2026-10-30 13:00 report §4.

2026-10-30 16:00 update

  • Close (15:55 bar): XOM +2.16%, CVX +1.78%, COP +2.67%, OXY +1.57%, EOG +2.08%, DVN +1.92%, MPC +2.89%, PSX +3.36%, XLE +1.89%. E&Ps/refiners closed in the top 10–20% of their range and above VWAP on relVol ~0.6–1.2 (partial daily volume). October: XLE +13.84%, WTI +14.08% (Yahoo, my calc). WTI faded to +0.80% ($102.82) at the close.
  • Q3 read-through: Exxon earned more from refining than from upstream for the first time in at least six years. Chevron (Nelson): margins "will stay a bit elevated, maybe into next year". XOM set $20B of 2027 buybacks (Reuters via Investing.com, 2026-10-30). This is a direct read for MPC Tue 11-03 BMO.
  • OPEC+ (7) meets Sun 11-01. A December hold is expected per Reuters sources; no final decision yet (OPEC, 2026-10-04; TokenPost, 2026-10-27). Full group meets 11-29.
  • Monday gap after a strong energy Friday (≥ +1.5%, close in the top 20% of range, 2016–2026; my calc): XLE n 52, gap mean −0.27% (42% up); XOM +0.02% (51%); COP −0.08% (56%); MPC +0.13% (56%). A coin flip; weekend Hormuz/Iran headlines dominate.
  • Source: 2026-10-30 16:00: close wrap, regime knife-edge, weekend energy, Monday BMO §5.
  • Official 4:21 PM run: PSX in long momentum (relVol 1.53, at the 1.5 line); no other energy names in any bucket (TRAI /api/latest, 2026-10-30).

2026-10-30 16:00 whiggity consult (§9)

  • OPEC+ seven meet Sun 11-01: verified by OPEC ("The next meeting will be held on 1 November 2026"). The seven are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman; on 10-04 they kept November at September's required production (OPEC, 2026-10-04). The UAE is not in this group.
  • Refiner read-through (whiggity, untested): MPC (Tue 11-03 BMO) → VLO, PSX, DINO, PBF; watch capture rates and buyback pace. In TRAI, MPC–PSX ρ is 0.886 (cluster 2), and PSX is in the 10-30 postclose long-momentum bucket (relVol 1.53), so MPC's print is a direct event risk for a live candidate on Tuesday. VLO, DINO, PBF are not in the universe.
  • Counter-case (whiggity, unverified): a weekend hedge unwind on an uneventful hold could gap XLE/crude down Monday; cracks compress when crude spikes; leaks of higher Iraq/Kazakhstan/UAE exports before the 11-29 full meeting. The strong-Friday study above (XLE gap mean −0.27%, 42% up) is consistent with a mild fade; the OPEC+-weekend conditioning was not added as a test (duplicate of S-095(3)).
  • Source: 2026-10-30 16:00 report §9.

2026-10-30 17:00 update: refiners

  • PSX is the only energy name in a TRAI bucket (LM; relVol 1.53–1.56, right at the line). Q3 (10-28): record adj. EPS $14.08, realized margin $38.00/bbl, 41% distillate yield. Valero and HF Sinclair also posted record Q3 profits (Reuters via Investing.com, 2026-10-28). Note: PSX.
  • After hours 10-30: XLE −0.06%, MPC −0.09%, VLO −0.90% (thin), PSX flat (Yahoo). No after-close energy filings found. Weekend risk is unchanged: OPEC+ on Sunday, Hormuz (16:00 report §5).
  • Source: 2026-10-30 17:00 report §5.

2026-11-02 09:00 update: OPEC+ hold, oil down on Iran–Qatar talks

  • OPEC+ core-7 held December targets (31.01 mb/d combined); the move came from Iran–Qatar talks: Brent −4.2% to $108.66, WTI −4.1% to $99.83 at 07:50 ET (Reuters via Euronext, 2026-11-02). Escalation risk after Tuesday's midterms remains (Euronews, 2026-11-02).
  • Study (WTI −4% days, n 63, 2022–26, my calc): energy names gap −1.5% to −2.2% and continue −0.56% to −1.01% open→close on average (full-day conditioning; S-117). Yahoo BZ=F daily series shows a roll artifact on 10-30 (117.64 vs Reuters-implied 113.43).
  • 2026-11-02 09:00 report §2–3

2026-11-02 15:00 update: WTI −7.3%, refiners into MPC's print

  • WTI settled −7.3% at $96.46, Brent −7.4% to ~$105 (2:48 PM) on US–Iran diplomacy (CNBC, 2026-11-02); most of the move came before the cash open (WTI 97.55 at 09:00). XLE −3.4%, XOM −3.4%, COP −4.1%, OXY −4.7%, VLO −3.2%, MPC −2.2%, PSX −2.1% (15:07 ET).
  • Study (WTI ≤ −5% days, n 39, 5y, my calc): energy next-day o→c ≈ 0, next-day c/c negative ~64% for XLE/PSX; WTI itself −0.68% next day (41% up). No average bounce.
  • MPC Tue BMO (MPC); PSX LM with peer-print risk (PSX). Risk premium two-sided after Tuesday's vote.
  • 2026-11-02 15:00 report

2026-11-02 16:00 update

  • XLE −3.93% at the close (−3.37% at 15:07); WTI 95.78 (−8.0%), Brent 103.92 (−8.4%) on Yahoo CL=F/BZ=F. PSX closed below its OR30 low into MPC's BMO print. Report

2026-11-02 17:00 update

  • 16:49 post-close run: OXY/XOM/CVX are MR fade-longs (one cluster); COP/PSX are SM (suspended). [CALC] Refiner prints (MPC/PSX) barely move the integrateds (§6B), so Tuesday's driver for this cluster is crude (WTI 96.35 at 16:58 ET), not MPC. Report

2026-11-03 09:00 update

  • Day 2 of the oil shock: CL=F 94.57 (−1.4%) at 08:58; OXY/XOM/CVX (MR fade-longs) −1.0% to −1.3% pre-market, MPC −2.2% after its BMO print. Fade-longs are gapping against (S-117/S-130).
  • Report

2026-11-05 16:00 update: COP BMO + EOG/DVN AMC into risk-off close

  • COP BMO beat (adj EPS $3.27, CFO $7.2B, dividend +11% to $0.93) but Yahoo last ≈ −1.12% vs 11-04 close on a SPY −4.39% / XLE −2.91% session (COP IR, 2026-11-05).
  • Cluster 4 (avg ρ 0.745 as of 11-04 cut): COP–EOG 0.938, EOG–DVN 0.90. Pre-print into AMC: EOG −1.6%, DVN −2.9%, XOM −2.4%, OXY −1.7% (Yahoo vs 11-04 closes).
  • SM bucket (suspended) still lists OXY/XOM/COP from the 11-04 session — no reactivation. OXY still prints AMC 11-09.
  • Company notes: COP · EOG · DVN · XOM.
  • Source: 2026-11-05 16:00 close wrap.

2026-11-06 11:00 update — OXY Mon AMC into COP/EOG/DVN peer week

  • OXY Q3 Mon 2026-11-09 AMC; call Tue Nov 10 1:00 p.m. ET (Oxy IR, Oct 1, 2026) [V-P].
  • TRAI avg \|gap\| 4.61% (1.50 ATR), fill 25%. Cluster 6 avgRho 0.753; ρ EOG 0.92, COP 0.91, DVN 0.89. Fri ~11:18 ET Yahoo ~+0.9% — quiet into the print after this week’s COP BMO / EOG–DVN AMC context (11-05 16:00 wrap).
  • Company note: OXY. Source: 2026-11-06 11:00 Mon gap stack.