TRAI — Research — PSX

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_Created 2026-10-30 17:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

US refiner with midstream (NGL, Permian/Eagle Ford gathering & processing), chemicals (CPChem JV), marketing and renewable fuels segments.

Q3 2026 (2026-10-28 BMO): record adj. EPS $14.08 vs $11.73 (LSEG); net income $5.62B vs $133M y/y; realized refining margin $38.00/bbl (Q2 $24.08); record 41% distillate yield; ~98% utilization; renewable fuels adj. +$191M vs −$43M. Shares +1.32% that day (Reuters via Investing.com, 2026-10-28; PSX IR, 2026-10-28).
Management expects strong refining margins through most of 2027 (secondary transcript summary: Investing.com, 2026-10-28). The company locked in 40+ time-chartered vessels before the freight spike, and 40 more join over 2.5 years at below-market rates (Reuters, above).
Coastal Bend expansion: first volumes in Q4 2026, full ramp to 350 kbpd in early 2027. The $5B Western Gateway pipeline JV with Kinder Morgan and HF Sinclair was finalized in August (Reuters, above).
Next print: none in TRAI's window (next = null). The key read-through is MPC Tue 11-03 BMO (ρ 0.91).

2026-10-30: +3.37%, relVol 1.53 (official 4:21 PM run) / 1.56 (5:04 PM re-run on final data), rangePos 0.81, close +0.68% vs VWAP → long_momentum in both runs. After hours flat (Yahoo).
Earnings reaction (last 4): avg |gap| 0.99% (0.33 ATR), continuation 75%. 10-28: gap +0.74%, c/c +1.95% (TRAI /api/events).
Correlations (60d, asOf 10-30): MPC 0.91, CVX 0.64, XOM 0.57, COP 0.55, EOG 0.54. Energy cluster 3 (avg ρ 0.71).

Weekend: OPEC+ held; Brent −4% on Iran–Qatar talks. PSX pre-market 278.00 (−1.7%) against Friday's long-momentum signal. On WTI −4% days (n 63, 2022–26) PSX averaged gap −1.55%, open→close −0.84% (35% up), close→close −2.38% (my calc; full-day conditioning caveat). Refiners have not acted as a hedge on crude-down days. MPC prints Tue BMO (ρ 0.91).
2026-11-02 09:00: Monday open, oil drop, PSX/TMUS against signal §3

Day 2 of the LM signal: −2.13% at 15:09 ET, below VWAP (278.26), inside OR30, with WTI −7.3% (settle $96.46) on US–Iran diplomacy (CNBC, 2026-11-02). The signal has not worked.
Peer-print risk Tue: MPC (ρ 0.91) reports Tue 11-03 BMO (TRAI max |gap| 8.52%); PSX's own events row shows no print (S-122/S-085 live case). On WTI ≤ −5% days PSX's next-day c/c was negative 64% of the time, o→c −0.25% (n 39, my calc).
2026-11-02 15:00 report §5–§7

Closed −2.75% (275.04), below VWAP (277.78) and below its OR30 low (275.50), at 0.07 of the range: the weakest LM close into MPC's Tue BMO print (ρ 0.91). The 15:00 rule stands (no entry before 10:00 ET, and then only above OR30/VWAP).
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