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XOM — ExxonMobil

_Last updated 2026-10-30 09:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

Business

Integrated oil & gas: Upstream, Energy Products (refining/fuels), Chemical Products, Specialty Products. The SEC registrant is now ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (CIK 2115436) (8-K, 2026-10-16).

Catalysts, guidance & news

  • Q3 2026 results: Fri 2026-10-30, ~6:30 AM ET (5:30 CT); call 9:30 AM ET (XOM IR, 2026-10-16).
  • 8-K earnings considerations, 3Q vs 2Q (after-tax; explicitly not an estimate): liquids price −$1.3B, gas +$0.3B, industry margins +$4.4B (Energy Products +4.5, Chemical −0.6, Specialty +0.5), scheduled maintenance +0.2, Middle East volume disruptions 0.0, external impacts on operations −0.6, day effect +0.3, other −0.9. Identified items/timing memo: divestments +0.7, other reserves −0.2, timing effects −2.5. ~4,140M diluted shares. 2Q26 GAAP $14.5B, adjusted $14.7B (8-K Ex. 99.1, 2026-10-16).
  • Q2 2026 adj. EPS $3.52 (missed $3.56). Q3 consensus $4.10 EPS / $105.43B revenue; beat 6 of the last 8 (MarketBeat, accessed 2026-10-23). An early-October preview had $3.40 (ScanX, 2026-10-02, pre-8-K). Not checked against LSEG/FactSet.
  • Joliet refinery (275 kbpd): 50 kbpd catalytic reformer shut Oct 20, "working to resolve an operational issue", no restart date; a September power outage caused ~2 weeks of downtime (Reuters via BOE Report, 2026-10-21).
  • 2026-10-23: +2.79% (o→c +2.14%) on Brent's settle at $116.72 (+3.14%, highest since Apr 29). No company release that day (report §3.1).

TRAI data (2026-10-23 4:34 PM ET postclose run)

  • Close $183.21, +2.79%, gap +0.64%, relVol 1.01, ATR 2.14%, beta60 −0.97, residZ 1.75, z1d 2.55, rangePos 0.886; signal mean_reversion fade-short (TRAI /api/latest).
  • Next earnings 10-30 BMO, elevated (TRAI /api/events, asOf 10-23). Last 4: avg |gap| 1.26% (0.59 ATR), fill 75%, continuation 0%, avg day-1 in gap direction −0.86%. Gaps −0.62, −1.26, −1.11, −2.06% (all negative); close-close −0.29, +0.63, −1.02, −0.97%.
  • TRAI replay, XOM mean_reversion (both sides): n 7, mean −0.18% (my calc, /api/scorecard).

Linkages

  • Cluster 2 (avg ρ 0.713). Top 60d ρ: CVX 0.86, COP 0.82, EOG 0.78, OXY 0.76, DVN 0.75, PSX 0.55, HAL 0.48; most negative APP/ORCL −0.42 (TRAI /api/correlations, asOf 10-22).
  • ρ with WTI (CL=F) 2026 YTD 0.58; beta 0.28. YTD +55.3% (Yahoo, my calc).
  • Peer-event: CVX reports the same morning (10-30). See energy.

2026-10-30 09:00 update

  • Q3 2026 (Fri 10-30 BMO): adj. EPS $4.23 vs $4.08, revenue $113.2B; FCF $19.1B; $20B 2027 buybacks (ExxonMobil, 2026-10-30; CNBC, 2026-10-30). Premarket +1.70% (09:17) vs avg |gap| 1.26%; call 9:30 ET.

Report links

2026-10-29 17:00 update

  • Q3 2026: Fri 10-30 BMO. Consensus EPS $4.12, revenue $104.89B (TipRanks). After hours 10-29 +0.66%. TRAI last 4: avg |gap| 1.26%, fill 75%.

2026-10-30 16:00 update