TRAI quant day-trading research

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CVNA: Carvana

_Last updated 2026-10-30 10:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

Business

Online used-car retailer with in-house reconditioning, financing (loan origination and sale) and logistics. TRAI sector: Crypto/High-beta (beta60 2.17). Top ρ: AFRM 0.46, META 0.45, UBER 0.44, DASH 0.40 (60d to 10-22).

Catalysts, guidance & news

  • Q3 2026 (Wed 2026-10-28 AMC):
  • Revenue $8.04B (+42%) vs $7.67B; retail units 217,385 (+39%).
  • Record adj. EBITDA $800M, but adj. EPS $0.39 vs $0.44 (miss).
  • FY26 adj. EBITDA guided to the high end of $2.7–3.0B; Q4 retail units up sequentially.
  • Source: Investing.com, 2026-10-29; StreetInsider, 2026-10-29.
  • Call: adj. EBITDA margin ~10% vs 11.3% a year ago; refinanced $1.7B of notes (~$45M/yr savings); net debt 0.8x (Motley Fool transcript).
  • Analysts: Needham target cut to $100 (from $120), BTIG to $82 (from $87), Jefferies $88. Morgan Stanley "Top Pick", target $88 (TipRanks).

TRAI data

  • 10-29: +15.68% to $68.31 (gap +10.55%, relVol 2.68, residual z 5.61, rangePos 0.83). long_momentum candidate for 10-30 (postclose run). After hours ~17:02: −0.13% (Yahoo).
  • Data gap: /api/events has next = null and its last event is 07-29, so the 10-28 print is missing (S-072). Last 4 prints: avg |gap| 8.54%, fill 25%, day-1 in gap direction −1.25%.

Linkages

  • See Business line (TRAI /api/correlations 60d to 2026-10-22, stale).

2026-10-30 09:00 update

  • Premarket −1.48% (TRAI 8:53) / −1.04% (Yahoo 09:13). Long_momentum candidate; report call: weakest LM name (high beta into risk-off, EPS-miss rally S-074).
  • Beta check: Yahoo 60d (to 10-29) β vs QQQ 0.68 (ρ 0.18), vs SPY 1.88; TRAI beta60 2.17. whiggity's assumed NQ β of 2.5–3.0 is not supported; the beta-implied premarket move is ≈ −2%, so the residual is only ≈ +1pp. ρ to COIN 0.26 / MSTR 0.27 → proposal S-080 to drop the "Crypto" label.

Report links

2026-10-30 10:00 update

2026-10-30 15:00 update

  • Day 2 (15:13 ET): +1.22% vs the 10-29 close, +1.84% open→now; the only LM name above both OR30 and VWAP, and above the 10-29 VWAP (68.19). Peers lagged: KMX −0.32%, ALLY −3.86%, AFRM −3.98% (Yahoo).
  • Day-2 target raises: Citizens $83→$85, Barclays $80→$82 (Investing.com / MarketBeat, 10-30).
  • Intraday 5-min β to SPY 1.97, ρ to ΔVIX −0.36: a stress-exposed long that held up on stock-specific bids. 60d ρ −0.37 to XOM, so a weekend oil gap-up is a headwind (fuel cost, ~$200/unit in Q3 per the letter).
  • TRAI events: drift days 2–5 after the last three prints were −6.34%, +1.07%, −11.23%. The 10-28 print is now in /api/events (gap +10.55%, c/c +15.68%).
  • Next CVNA-specific datapoint: Manheim October index, Fri 11-06 09:00 ET (mid-Oct 207.4, +0.7% m/m; Cox: firmer values from 'leaner inventory rather than stronger buying'). Peer prints: UBER 11-04 BMO, SNAP 11-04 AMC, AFRM 11-05 AMC.
  • 2026-10-30 15:00: LM day-2 follow-through and weekend gap (CVNA/CMG/DASH/BA/MO)

2026-10-30 16:00 update